The Value of the Bullpen
Baseball odds are based largely on the starting pitcher. However, it's important to understand that starting pitching is only one piece to a large puzzle when analyzing who might win a baseball game. Offense is an obvious important component. Roger Clemens just signed with the Yankees, and despite the fact that he had a sizzling ERA last season under 3 (2.30), he only won 7 games and lost 6. The Houston offense was terrible, that's why.
Other more subtle factors are defense, the ballpark they pitch in, and the relief staff. Relief pitching has morphed into an enormous facet of the game over the last 20 years. In 1987, Clemens pitched 18 complete games for the Red Sox. Over the last eight years, he's pitched a total of 4 complete games. This is the age of specialization, with teams stockpiling short relievers, middle men, and even lefty specialists, southpaws who basically come in to face one lefty batter and then leave. What a job description!
It's also changed the way handicappers dissect ball games. You have to figure most starters are going to go 5-6 innings, on average. So what about those final 3-4 innings? Bullpen strength or weakness can be the major difference between cashing a winning ticket or blowing an 8th inning lead.
One plus for the Orioles early in the season was that a young bullpen was pitching well, helping them to win 10 of 13 games. However, starters Jaret Wright and Adam Loewen are on the disabled list, and starter Daniel Cabrera is a guy who walks a lot of batters, which means he can be gone early, throwing 100 pitches in 5 innings. That wasn't so bad when the Baltimore relief staff was deep, but now with the shortage of starters it's becoming a problem. Orioles starters pitched seven or more innings just four times in 26 April tries.
Even the Devil Rays are ahead of last year's pace. One key has been reliever Al Reyes and his 1.50 ERA. He had nine April saves in nine chances. Most impressive, he allowed just seven runners and struck out 16 batters in 12 innings.
The Brewers have been playing well in the NL Central, and a big reason for their success has been a strong relief corps behind Francisco Cordero, Derrick Turnbow, Carlos Villanueva and Brian Shouse. Think for a minute about a close game or one going in extra innings. If you've got a ticket on a live dog and the game is going extra frames, you've got a better chance of cashing with a team like the Brewers than one with an unreliable bullpen.
There's an unreliable bullpen in Cincinnati, which has frustrated fans and Reds' backers. So far this season, the Reds have allowed 25 runs in the eighth inning. The Reds gave up four runs in the eighth inning in a 5-2 loss to the Cardinals on April 25 and five runs in back-to-back losses to the Astros on April 18 and 19, as well as five in the seventh inning of a 10-6 loss to the Brewers on April 16. They had the best bullpen ERA the first two weeks of the season in the National League, but it now stands last (4.63) in the NL.
A reporter asked the Reds manager, "The way your bullpen has struggled lately, does it make you rethink your usual strategy, make you maybe leave guys in longer than you would otherwise?" The Reds' skipper took a deep breath, paused a moment, tilted his head back and then brought it down again with a resounding, "Yes!
"That's something I've got to be very, very careful of, trying not to overextend a starter," he added. This is another reason why it's essential to keep up on injuries. The Reds are without lefties Eddie Guardado and Bill Bray. When Guardado is fully recovered from his elbow surgery and Bray's finger heals up the Reds are likely to improve. But until then, the relief corps could be gasoline alley.
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