Baseball Hot and Cold Starts
More than any other sport, baseball is a game of patience. It's not how you start, but where you finish, and with a 162-game regular season, there is a LOT of baseball left! Did your team get off to a bad start? Well don't panic. There is plenty of time to make adjustments and turn things around. Did your team get off to a hot start? Well don't start making World Series reservations just yet.
Remember that one year ago the eventual champion Cardinals didn't light the world on fire during a 17-12 start. In fact, just two years ago the Houston Astros started 8-13 and eventually stood at 15-30! They ended up winning the 2005 NL pennant. In 2003, the Florida Marlins started 19-29 and ended up winning the World Series. In 2002, the Angels started 6-14 and would up winning their first World Series. So don't panic if your team is stumbling, and don't start thinking about printing playoff tickets if your team started 6-1, like the 2007 Atlanta Braves.
Some other surprises from the start of this season have been the Marlins winning their first three road games, the Phillies starting 1-7, and the Diamondbacks starting 7-2. A lot of folks were up in arms about the Yankees, well, lack of arms as they started 2-3. The starting rotation had an ERA over 9, worst in the big leagues. However, they quietly went into Minnesota and won 8-2 and 10-1, getting great pitching from Carl Pavano and Andy Pettitte, two guys who had pitched poorly the first week. You need patience when analyzing baseball.
History is the best teacher. Let's look back just two years ago for some comparisons. In April of 2005, the Orioles and Blue Jays were atop the American League East with the Red Sox and Yankees looking up at them. In the National League, the Dodgers had a blistering 11-2 start while no other team in the NL West had a winning record. When the season ended, a very different picture emerged. LA was 71-91 in fourth place, a bevy of injuries and a lack of hitting derailing their once promising season. Meanwhile, in April in the NL Central the eventual NL champion Astros were looking up at the Cubs, Reds and Cardinals.
Surprises will emerge over a long season and offer smart bettors good value for their wagering dollar, even with individual players. After going 17-8 and 16-8 from 2004-05, Cardinals lefty Mark Mulder was expected to have a strong 2006 season. He was installed as a favorite often on such a good team, yet struggled badly with a 6-7 record and a 7.14 ERA. Arm trouble eventually put him on the shelf. Pitchers are more susceptible to injuries than any other professional athletes and remember that betting numbers are made based on current and past performance. It can take a while before oddsmakers catch on to a struggling or injured pitcher.
Mets lefty Oliver Perez is an interesting case. This was a guy who was a dominating pitcher in 2004 when he was 22-years old, striking out 239 with a 2.99 ERA. Yet, he appeared to have lost it, going 3-13 last season as the Pirates traded him to the Mets. He's still only 25 and pitched great in the opener at Atlanta, allowing 5 hits, one run and no walks in 7 innings, before walking 7 in his second start. So has he turned a corner or not? You must be careful with teams and players, as they can change from season to season.
A year ago at this time folks were wondering about Atlanta ace Tim Hudson, who got bombed twice and sported a 12.38 ERA. Yet, he ended the season with a winning record and this year has gotten off to a red-hot start. Pitchers, in particular, can get old fast, get hurt, or lose their fastball, so don't put too much stock in what a player did last season. This is a brand new year.
Sustaining a surprise start requires talent, depth, line-up balance and good health. A crop of talented young players from the farm system can be a huge plus. In 2003, the Florida Marlins road a slew of hot young arms, Dontrelle Willis, Josh Beckett, Brad Penny, Pavano, to a World Series title.
Remember in 2003 the Royals started 17-4, the Mariners started 40-18 and the Diamondbacks were 52-42 at the All Star break. None made the playoffs. Those examples give hope to those teams that are off to struggling starts, and should provide caution to teams that are in first place. After all, it's only April!
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