NBA Tips: Late Season Motivation
Vacation is just around the corner. No, not vacation for school kids or teachers. It's even too early to be talking about summer vacation. I'm referring to professional athletes going on vacation for the offseason, namely NBA players.
With roughly a week to go, how can you expect teams that are completely out of it to give 100% on the basketball court? Especially teams on the road. Even bad teams, if they're well coached or have team leaders, can get up to play hard in front of the home fans. On the road, though, it can be extremely difficult as the season winds down.
Over the weekend I backed the Orlando Magic playing at home to Memphis. We all know the Grizzlies' story. Two coaches, a ton of injuries, the most losses in the league, and a train wreck season. They've been in the Greg Oden sweepstakes for months. They just headed out on the road to take on an Orlando team that was on the playoff bubble.
In my analysis on the game I noted, "This game is absolutely huge for Orlando. The Magic have hurt their playoff chances by blowing the first two games of their four game home stand and simply have to win this game. Memphis comes in off a big effort at home Friday night while the Magic have had a little time to reflect on what this game means. I'm looking for Orlando to put it together and post a big win." How about a final score of 116-89? Orlando got out in front by 20 in the first quarter and never looked back.
The Grizzlies had just nine healthy players available. Put yourself in their short-handed shoes. Would you be mentally focused on giving 100% in a game you have few players dressed for with nothing at stake, and on the road? Athletes are human. The Memphis players must have been thinking, "Let's just get this one over with." Maybe at home they would have had a different attitude. No team wants to embarrass itself in front of their paying fans by not giving an effort. On the road, it's more likely as players can think, "No one's watching this game back home and no one's rooting for us here."
Notice that Memphis is actually 3-1 against the spread their last 4 home games, even covering against the Suns, Lakers and Bulls. But they've lost 5 of their last 7 road games by 10, 18, 27, 5 and 27 points. That's a lot of blowouts away from home!
Even when two teams meet that aren't playoff bound it's possible to find wagering value. Maybe they've given up on defense, they're not healthy, or they've tuned out the coach. I notice that the New York Knicks have been messed up the last month. They only played seven guys in a recent game and they're basically running out of healthy bodies as the season draws to a close. The Knicks were on a 2-9 SU, 3-7 ATS run heading into the Minnesota game, yet they were favored!
As a result, I took a shot with visiting Minnesota because there was no way to justify the Knicks getting points. I predicted, "I'm on the Timberwolves to roll to the outright underdog win this evening." The Knicks packed it in again in a 99-94 home loss as a favorite. "I wasn't nice to them in the locker room," NY coach Isiah Thomas said afterward. Message to Isiah: You should have been angry with them during that 2-9 run, because now it's 2-10!
Look at the run the LA Clippers have been on, 10-3 against the spread the last 13 games. All during that stretch the players have been talking about sucking it up and giving one last try for a postseason push. Talk is sometimes cheap, but it's clear the Clippers have been walking the talk. They won 4 times straight up as a dog during that stretch, and covered 7 times in 13 games as a dog.
Another team I supported recently based on motivation was the Bulls at home against the Nets. The Bulls are fighting for the No. 2 seed in the East and have been playing with fire the last month. The Bulls beat New Jersey 105-74, covering the number by 25 points! Most of us aren't on vacation these days, but easy covers like that sure make it feel like a vacation, or at least a long, sweet holiday!
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