Baseball's April Pitchers: The Good, Bad and Ugly!
Baseball is a long and grinding schedule, 162 games, played just about every day. With that kind of grind, it's common that teams and players will go through different cycles during a season. Not just because it's a daily grind of practice followed by competitive games, but also the travel and even the changing seasons can influence players.
Northern cities will have cooler weather in April and October, while the West can be hot and dry and the South is often hot and sticky in summer. All of these things can influence the pitcher's grip on the ball, for instance, or how comfortable an offensive player is at the plate.
In the opener Sunday night, Tom Glavine pitched terrific in shutting down the defending champion Cardinals. It was a small measure of revenge as the Mets found themselves right back where everything went wrong last October, in a 7-game NLCS series defeat.
Glavine appears to be one guy who likes pitching in April. Notice that over the last three-plus years Glavine is 18-10 in April and May, counting the opener over the Cardinals. You might say he's used to being a fast starter. However, also notice that Glavine is 9-11 in June/July the last three years combined, and just 10-12 in August/September.
Many pitchers have this kind of disparity. Some have reasons you can points to, while other times it's tougher to find them. Consider Florida's Dontrelle Willis, who has a history of red-hot starts, going 9-1 with a sizzling 2.32 ERA the last three April's.
The Cubs spent a lot of money in the offseason hoping to erase an embarrassing 2006 performance. Much will hinge on their lone healthy ace, Carlos Zambrano. The Big Z has been a notoriously slow starter, however. Notice that Zambrano is just 4-3 with a 4.48 ERA his last 15 April starts. That is easily his worst month of the baseball season the last three years, with an ERA under 4.00 in every other month.
Maybe he's a slow starter. Maybe he doesn't work on his breaking pitches as much in spring training, so that April is more for fine-tuning for him. Maybe it's the cooler Chicago weather that doesn't sit well with the native Venezuelan. For whatever reason, Zambrano seems to pitch his worst in April before things begin to click.
A pitching staff to keep an eye on this April is Toronto. The Blue Jays have four starters whose April numbers the last three years are outstanding. Gustavo Chacin is 8-2 with a 3.55 ERA his last 63 April innings, ace Roy Halladay is 9-5 in 106 April innings, A.J. Burnett has a 3.26 ERA in his last 47 April innings with opponents hitting just .231 off him, and even John Thomson has a 2.29 ERA his last 86 April innings.
A couple of major league staffs built with strong one/two punches atop the rotation are the Indians and Dodgers. Yet, the two aces have a history of very different starts to the season. Indians ace lefty C.C. Sabathia has a 3-0 record and a 1.88 in his last 43 April innings, allowing just 28 hits, 37 Ks, and allowing opponents to hit a paltry .189 average! His mound compatriot, Jake Westbrook, couldn't be more opposite, starting slow with a 4.87 April ERA, a 3-8 record, allowing 10 home runs his last 85 April innings.
The Dodgers Derek Lowe is 11-14 combined the last three April and Mays, while Brad Penny has a history of fast starts. He's 5-1 with a 2.62 ERA the last three Aprils, and 8-4 in May. After that during that time, his ERA has never been below 4.00. For those of you excited that Randy Johnson is back in the National League, be careful about backing him: He will likely be a favorite often, but is just 8-6 the last three Aprils. Make sure you get inside the numbers, because breaking down stats and performances are more important than overall numbers.
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