Final Four: The Value of Experience
This is going to be one of the more interesting Final Fours from a handicapping perspective. In many respects, it's a classic case of experience versus youth. Florida looks like the most experienced team this deep in the tournament since perhaps Michigan State's senior-laden 2000 squad. Several of the Gators chose not to enter the NBA draft last season despite winning the championship to come back and try and do it all again.
And here they are, back in the Final Four! Florida hasn't been the dominant team the last three games that many people thought, beating Purdue by 7, Butler by 8 and Oregon by 8. The Gators are just 1-2 against the spread the last three games. But don't be fooled: This is an extremely talented team.
Florida is tops in the nation in field goal shooting percentage (52.7%), 15TH in scoring (79.3 ppg), and fifth in rebounding differential. Certainly veteran leadership gives Florida a key edge in games, with 4 juniors and 2 seniors leading the team in scoring and rebounding. They've won 16 straight postseason games (SEC and NCAA tournaments), most since Nevada-Las Vegas almost two decades ago. Florida is also 8-0 SU, 6-2 ATS the last 8 games, playing their best basketball of the season.
The team Florida will be playing, UCLA, has plusses and minuses with respect to experience. The Bruins have 5 sophomores and 2 juniors as their leading scorers and rebounders. That's a lot of youth! Yet, they've been here before, making it to the title game last season against Florida, of all teams. Only one UCLA starter, Josh Shipp, was not a part of the Bruins' run to the championship game last year. This is going to be a great week for examining the revenge factor, too.
For the first time since 1975 and 1976 during the transition from John Wooden to Gene Bartow, the Bruins (30-5 SU/18-15 ATS) will play in back-to-back Final Fours. For the record, it wasn't pretty a year ago as UCLA brought a 12-game win streak into the Florida game, then got manhandled 73-57 by the Gators.
Before playing that game, UCLA senior Cedric Bozeman said, "Basically, it's substance over style. We pride ourselves on defense. If defense is going to win games, that's what we're going to do." The better defensive team turned out to be Florida, holding the Bruins to 36% shooting (Florida shot 44.8%). Both teams perimeter defense was excellent, as Florida shot 31% from long range, UCLA shot 17%.
Remarkably Florida had balanced scoring, with four players scoring 11-16 points, and Adrian Moss had 9 off the bench. Balance has been a huge part of Florida's success these last two years. To keep it close, the Bruins are going to have to play better defense. UCLA just held Kansas to a season-low 55 points. Kansas' top five scorers were either freshmen or sophomores, so it appears experience helped UCLA. By the way, UCLA is 3-0 SU/ATS as a dog this season and 11-3 ATS the last two years as a dog.
In the other bracket there is an even more stark contrast. A veteran Georgetown squad will be facing a very young Ohio State team. The Buckeyes have three freshmen starters, including star center Greg Oden (15.4 ppg, 9.5 rpg). The Buckeyes have won 21 in a row, not losing since January 9th (Wisconsin).
Ohio State has been forced to play a more uptempo game of late, scoring a lot because they fell behind by 20 to Tennessee and then battled a more uptempo Memphis squad. However, they are excellent in the slow, half-court game with Oden as a dominating defensive presence, and they are likely to face that style against a Hoya team that allows under 58 ppg.
So it's going to be the battle of the Big Men, with Oden and 7-foot-2 Roy Hibbert locking elbows. Georgetown's defense was sensational in the second half against North Carolina. They did it by patiently overcoming an 11-point second-half deficit, and by holding one of the nation's most explosive offensive teams to 1-of-23 shooting over a more than 10-minute stretch that spanned the end of regulation and overtime!
Just as impressive was the Hoya's patience: They didn't panic down 11 to the No. 1 seeded Tar Heels. That's one of the subtle aspects that experience brings, the ability to remain calm when the scoreboard and the clock are against you. You can't measure experience, patience or clutch play statistically, but they can be important handicapping factors as the games get bigger!
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