Bank on Tourney Offenses for Covers
It's funny. We all know defense wins championships, and that's still very much true. You can't go far in any postseason with serious defensive deficiencies. And you'll hear a lot about defense over the next few weeks as the Sweet 16 and Final Four take shape. You hear so much about it that it's easy ignore, or at least overlook, how important offense still is.
And that's particularly true this time of year. Teams that rely on stifling defenses can pull a surprise or two, but they generally don't make long runs in the tournament. More important from a sports betting perspective, a strong offensive team can also get a team plenty of covers.
I used this last week when big underdog North Texas had to take on mighty Memphis. Granted, I knew the Tigers were going to win the game easily. Their talent level and athletic ability was head and shoulders above any team in the Sun Belt Conference. However, North Texas has a strong, run-and-gun offense that averages 77 points per game. They were the second highest scoring team in that conference and shoot 37% from long range. Last year's team had played Texas A&M and lost 72-70 as an 18-point dog!
That was the same number they were against Memphis, too. In addition, Memphis is not the type of disciplined team that gets up to play small schools, either, failing to cover twice this season as 27-point favorites. In my analysis I wrote, "North Texas has a decent offense and I believe they can at least hang around in the contest. Memphis may be thinking about the more serious challenges that are on deck and that gets me to the huge underdog here." So it was a good situational spot, too, with North Texas getting the cover.
Teams that play strangling defense with weak offenses, like Wisconsin, Washington State, Air Force and Southern Illinois, can keep games close with their defense. But they can be at a disadvantage in tournaments when competition is tighter and you come up against so many strong offenses. Look at Wisconsin. The Badgers win with defense, yet trailed UNLV 39-27 at the half Sunday. What's a team that wins with defense supposed to turn to when they're down by 12? They have to play out of their game. Wisconsin ended up shooting 41% for the game in the Rebel upset.
For the season, notice the Badgers shoot 35.6% from three-point land, fifth worse in the Big 10. Again, you need some offense to win and advance. In addition, Wisconsin was 6-point favorite. That can be a problem when slow-down, defensive teams with offensive weaknesses are considerable favorites. They can be worth a look as a dog, of course, as their defense is likely to keep them in games.
But it can be dangerous to ask a team that doesn't score much to lay big numbers. Wisconsin was a 13-point favorite the previous game over Corpus Christi and was fortunate to get a push, coming from way behind. They were a 9-point favorite against Michigan State earlier this month and won 52-50. The last 4 games slow-down Air Force has been favored by 11, 6, 8 and 14 points -- and is 1-3 ATS!
I also had Winthrop, who I thought was a very live dog against Notre Dame. In my write-up I noted, "I think Winthrop is the better team on the floor, and I'm confidently taking Winthrop with the points." They were a 3-point dog and won the game 74-64. Winthrop is a fine offensive team, outscoring opponents by a 75-61 average (and 3-1 ATS as a dog).
I'm not downplaying defense, it's essential this time of year. But don't focus so much on the better defensive team that you overook the importance of offense. After all, a year ago in the title game it was well-balanced Florida offense against a sensational UCLA defensive team. And the winner was Florida easily in a 71-57 rout. Offense is just as significant as Big 'D'!
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