Opening Round Dance Steps
The week that college basketball fans wait for all year has finally arrived.
The NCAA tournament starts in a matter of days. I wanted to devote this
week's article to handicapping strategies you should be considering as you
approach this first big weekend of action.
For me, handicapping the Big Dance starts during the conference tournaments
the prior weekend. I make a list of all the top-notch teams who had early
exits. These squads are definitely on my watch list because they've got
talent, they've got a chip on their shoulder coming off an upset loss, and
they've had extra rest and preparation time. To me this is a HUGE advantage.
Now, I'm not saying that every single upset victim from last week will come
out and cover their opening round spreads. I do expect most if not all of
them to play well. That's a starting point for making quality selections, as
far as I'm concerned.
I also make a list of all the teams in major conferences that "cut down
nets" after winning a championship. I typically want to avoid these teams in
their first games, particularly as big favorites. Here we've got the
opposite influences in play. The team may be overconfident coming off a
great weekend rather than having a chip on their shoulder. The team is
likely to feel some lingering fatigue effects from playing at least three
games in three days. And, their preparation could lack focus because of the
hangover effect from the big celebration. I'm not saying all of last week's
conference tourney winners will fail to cover their openers. A good
percentage is likely to. Some of the winners will be upset fodder against
dangerous first round floaters.
Once the brackets are announced, the first thing I do is look at the travel
situations for all the teams. The media tends to make too much in my opinion
of teams who don't have far to travel. They'll talk about loud cheering
crowds and such because students and alumni can make the trip. That's all
well and good. The players hear that and relax. Sports wagerers hear the
media talking about it, which causes the line to get inflated. I will take
some teams in a spot like this, but I make sure I'm getting line value.
To me, it's better to come at it from the other direction. I like to go
against teams who have the furthest to go. Often lesser known teams have to
fly more than halfway across the country to play. They're not used to this
because lesser known teams typically play more restricted geographic
schedules during the regular season. It can be a big adjustment.
If somebody like North Carolina or Duke is playing relatively close to home,
you'll read and hear 100 stories about it before Thursday. If a 15th seed
that's off the radar has to fly from one coast to another, it barely gets a
mention. Many of the lesser seeds who get waxed in the first round had
travel issues like that which didn't get noticed much by the wagering
public.
I've had great success over the years finding upset specials in the first
round, where double-digit seeds win outright against more well known
opponents. This really isn't as hard as it seems if you know the key factors
involved.
First, you want to back quality. If you don't have your own trusty set of
power ratings, use a major computer rating system or other trusted sources
so you know where the mid-major representatives stand in the big picture.
Some teams you're not familiar with are actually very good.
Secondly, look to go against teams in the #3 to #6 seeding ranges who have
clearly exploitable weaknesses. For some, it will be a soft defense. For
others, it will be a tendency to rely too much on three pointers. For a few,
it very well could be that factor we mentioned earlier about cutting down
the nets the prior week.
Some of the shockers really aren't "upsets" at all when you know all the
factors in play.
My final point involves competitive balance. Last year's tournament, and
many in recent years, saw countless close games that went right down to the
wire. There's so little difference amongst many of the competing teams that
anything really can happen in 40 minutes of basketball. If one team hits a
bunch of three-pointers, the other team may not have time to catch up. If
one team gets some friendly officiating, the opponent really has to battle
to make up for that from the floor.
In any wagering situation that is this random, you want to shade your action
toward underdogs. This will be very difficult for some because the lines
will seem low. Neutral site games don't have any home court advantage
factored in. So, teams that you're used to seeing as medium to big favorites
are suddenly small to medium favorites. Resist the urge to lay points all
over the place. Pick your spots for favorites based on the earlier tips.
Otherwise, you should be look to pass or bet underdogs.
Best of luck this week. I'll offer up some tips for handicapping the
Sweet-16 the next time. See you then!
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