Tournament Interest and Motivation
The fight for the 65-team tournament is finally in the books. Now it's time to shut up and play the games. It was an emotional week for players and coaches, fighting for their tournament lives, with one eye on the game and the other on whether they would get an invite or not. In handicapping, emotion needs to be weighed very carefully.
Emotion can be a huge adrenaline lift that carries a 9-point favorite to 31 and 21-point wins, which is what happened with the Florida Gators this weekend. The defending national champs combined their talent with tremendous emotion for one-sided wins that it didn't matter if a line moved from 7-10 points.
Speaking of which, do you think the Gators are confident? After the game, senior Chris was asked about the No. 1 seed: "It doesn't mean a whole lot," Richard said. "If we had a No. 16 seed, we'd play pretty well anyway."
Motivation depends not only on seeding and being on the bubble, but also on coaching. Being an effective coach means knowing how to teach and motivate. Red Auerbach was the greatest coach in NBA history, winning 8 straight NBA titles before retiring. People forget that before he became an NBA coach he received a Master's Degree in teaching from George Washington University. He always said if he weren't a coach he'd be a teacher. He brought his enormous talent for teaching to basketball and got through to players, a talent not all coaches have.
I used those ingredients of postseason seeding and motivation last week when Southern Illinois was playing Creighton in the Missouri Valley tourney. I recognized that Southern Illinois was likely to get into the Big Dance whether they won the tournament or not. But their opponent, Creighton, was in a very different spot.
In my analysis I noted, "Southern Illinois is having a great campaign and will be well seeded in the Big Dance regardless of this result. But I think the Salukis go down. Creighton may still need this do go dancing. I think they're probably in, but there's only one way to know for sure and that's by winning here. The top seed hasn't won this tournament in many years, and I don't think there's a better big game coach than Dana Altman. I'll grab Creighton to snare the win and cover in a great game."
Creighton got the straight up win as a dog, 67-61, and rolled right into the NCAA tournament. Motivation and great coaching were two key factors that made them the play for me.
When assessing how a team might fare this week, motivation will continue to be a key factor. Each team in the Big Dance should be primed to play their best, but that's not necessarily the case in the NIT. Some teams are delighted to participate in the NIT, some are ho-hum about it, and some even see it as a snub.
Syracuse might be the most interesting example. The Orange was expecting an invitation to the dance, but it didn't happen, which surprised a lot of people. "I have no way of knowing why we're not in the tournament," Jim Boeheim said. "It's beyond me." The Orange (22-10) became the first team from a major conference with more than 21 regular-season wins and at least 10 conference wins to be denied an NCAA Tournament bid.
"You look at the numbers and it's hard to believe," added Boeheim, "but I'm sure that Drexel and Air Force and Kansas State and Missouri State are disappointed that they're not in the tournament as well. Obviously, we're disappointed. The players and coaches, we're all tremendously disappointed."
It's essential for handicappers to search for information like this on the psychological state of teams this week. Are they up for it? Are they disappointed? Are they crushed? And are they well coached enough to respond in a positive way?
Obviously Syracuse is down right now, but on the other hand Boeheim is a great coach. He has a history of getting players focused and prepared, but other coaches aren't as talented as he is. So start sifting through all the information out there and try and get inside the mind of teams. A focused, motivated team can provide excellent spread covers, while a dispirited one can be a better go-against over the next few weeks.
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