Home (court) Is Where the Heart Is
It's the busiest time on the basketball calendar as tournament play kicks in. It's also the most challenging and enjoyable from a handicapping perspective. There are all kinds of angles to examine when trying to identify edges in sides and totals, such as matchup analysis, trends, defensive stats and coaching strategy. However, don't overlook some of the tried and true methods that still hold wagering value.
Home court in basketball is still the great equalizer in many respects. In college basketball, you have to remember that these are young kids. Confidence is not completely developed as it is with NBA players who are in their mid 20s and 30s. It's more comfortable for a 19-year old college athlete to play in front of friendly fans in the same gym where he practices each day.
On the road, however, and the environment is very different, with ten-thousand or more fans screaming AGAINST his every move. That can shake anybody's confidence. And it's not just with big schools on national TV, like Duke, Texas and UCLA. I just gave out a play on Sacramento State when they were a home dog to Weber State. Weber State was the better team at 18-10, while Sacramento State had the opposite 10-18 mark.
Yet, it was easy to make a case for the home dog. Sacramento State was a strong 8-4 SU, 5-3 against the spread at home. In addition, Weber State had already wrapped up a share of the Big Sky title, so they had far less interest in playing all out. Weber State had already clinched a first round tournament bye and will be hosting the semis and the finals. On the other hand, Sacramento State won't qualify for the tourney and would put the equipment away for the summer after that game.
So you not only had a team's final home game of the season, but their last game overall, angles that made the home dog inviting. For the record, Sacramento State led 48-28 at the half on the way to a 105-83 laugher. I laughed, too, all the way to the bank! Again, had the game been on the road, it would have been far more difficult to make a case for Sacramento State. But their final home game stood out like a sore thumb to the astute handicapper.
Home court is also significant when a team has a long stretch of home games. That can provide valuable rest, something rare at this point of the long NBA season. The New Jersey Nets were hosting Washington this week and it would be their fourth straight home game. Washington, meanwhile, was on a 3-game road trip and they were 10-17 away from home allowing a whopping 106 ppg. The clash of scheduling dynamics gave far more of an edge to the home team than at first meets the eye.
I also took a look at how the teams had matched up already. In my analysis of the game I wrote, "The Wizards are the better team in the standings, but you wouldn't know it based on the two meeting this year they've had with the Nets. New Jersey was able to take Washington out of its game. It looks like the Nets are actually in better form right now, as the Wizards have been a little dinged up."
New Jersey had key scheduling dynamics in their favor. And what happened? The Nets won by double-digits, and notice they had far fresher legs in the fourth quarter, outscoring Washington 34-23! The banged up and road weary Wizards were out of gas, while the hometown fans helped keep the adrenaline going for the Nets. Home court helps teams in many ways. It's the job of the handicapper to identify those edges and how to apply them in the right situations!
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