Major Conference Tourneys
The last time we were together, I went over some strategies for handicapping
mid-major tournaments. This week, it's time to look at the major conference
events. There are some dramatic differences when we step up in class. You
just can't handicap these games the same way you did last week's contests.
Here are some suggestions:
*Remember that the elite teams, those likely to be #1, #2, or #3 seeds in
the Big Dance have had a horrible history in recent years in conference
tournaments. They're all looking ahead to the NCAA tournament. They know
there's no reason to kill themselves over three straight days this week when
the games that really matter are just a few days away.
The head coaches won't admit it. In fact, they'll deny it. The players will
talk about how thrilling it would be to cut down the nets at the end of the
weekend. It all makes for great public relations for the sport. But if you
study the actual results, it's very clear that the elite teams don't perform
as well as expected either straight up or against the spread.
That means you've got to focus on underdogs, particularly those of seven
points or less. Time and time again you'll see prominent favorites get
knocked off in those price ranges. You should be looking at moneyline plays
as well because underdog victories are so common. The wagering public has
had the hardest time accepting this in recent seasons. That's why the lines
aren't dropping as fast as they should be.
You know, if you just followed a blanket strategy of taking all small to
medium underdogs in the "big six" tournaments (ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big
12, Pac 10, SEC), you'll probably be happy with the results.
*Remember that elite teams have a lot of scoring options, so playing Unders
in these tournaments is a bit more dangerous. It's best to pick your spots
with the conferences that are clearly slowing things down and playing
halfcourt basketball. These games always seem to stay Under, even if they go
overtime! Just be careful assuming all the games will be like this.
Focus on the teams who played slow tempos in the regular season. Focus on
teams who lack depth, because they're most likely to try and shorten the
games if they've got to play three times in three days. You can find some
great Unders this way. Just read the boxscores and take note of teams who
only go six or seven players deep in their rotation. If you see a couple of
teams who spread the minutes around to everyone, it's okay to take an Over
there. The game likely won't slow down, and you may get a bunch of late
points on free throws, too.
*Beware of the bubble teams. The TV networks will devote a lot of time to
telling you who needs to win to make sure they'll get an invitation to the
NCAA tournament. In recent years, this has been a kiss of death. The lines
go up because the public bets on "need." The players play very tight because
they know what's at stake. The opponents rise to the occasion because it's
fun to play spoiler. Boom! another favorite loses, and the announcers have
to start pleading that they deserve to be in the tournament anyway.
You won't see that once in the next week, you'll see it at least a half
dozen times. Don't forget that these teams wouldn't be on the bubble in the
first place if they could win games on command. Put them under pressure on a
neutral court and it's far from a sure thing that they can get a victory,
let alone a cover.
*Focus on the paint rather than the arc. By that, I mean that you should be
looking to make Las Vegas wagers on teams that go inside and attack the
basket. You will see a few games where a team shoots lights out from long
range and scores an impressive victory. It's very hard to do that two games
in a row against inspired opponents on neutral courts. Winning ugly is much
more consistent, particularly because teams that know how to rebound have a
big edge in close games.
One of the strongest edges you can have in the tournaments is knowing when
to go against a team that played over its head the previous day. The public
wants to take them because they looked like a hot team that's peaking at the
right time. This will keep the line in check, and you can score an easy
cover when the bombs stop falling.
For my money, this is annually the most exciting week of college basketball.
I know everyone loves the first four days of the NCAA tournament. During the
major conference tournaments though, you've got all the best teams in the
country squaring off in exciting games (often rivalry games to boot). And,
you've got additional mid-major and smaller conference tournaments that
provide thrillers as well. There aren't enough TVs to watch all the upsets
and exciting finishes. If you play it right, it will be the most exciting,
and potentially profitable week of your entire basketball season. Best of
luck!
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