College Basketball Reversals
You've probably heard that, in college football, September can provide a
false read on teams. If a gridiron squad covers all of its games in
September, they'll get overrated very quickly and fall back to earth. If a
team plays horribly for the month, the public will give up hope on them just
as they get things figured out.
Because of that, September is a "reverse indicator" for many college
football teams. In most seasons you'll make money taking all of those 0-4
ATS or 0-3 ATS starters when they play in October and November. You'll lose
money trying to back the 4-0 ATS or 3-0 ATS after the lines have adjusted.
We don't see the exact same thing in college basketball because the
schedules are so imbalanced in the first two months. It's just hard to get a
read on teams when they're playing a power one day, then a cupcake two days
later. Also, the lines are slower to adjust because the oddsmakers and
public are so wrapped up in football. Now that conference play has been
underway for awhile, the elements are in place to put the spirit of the
football approach to its best use in basketball.
I strongly suggest that you go through recent ATS team-by-team performances
and make a note of any squad that's failed to cover at least four straight
games, as well as any that's successfully covered at least four straight
games. You'll be surprised at how hard that is to do in the modern game.
Competitive balance is rampant. And, college basketball players are
inconsistent by nature. But, with over 200 board teams, you'll find some
nominees in both categories.
Now, in the coming days, plan on playing the reversals. Go gently at first,
because you don't want to be stuck on the wrong end of a long streak. Once
you see that a team has started its reversal, you can be more aggressive on
your wagers. It's likely that a string of results in the new direction will
continue for awhile. As we saw in football, it's not uncommon for the change
of fortune to last up to twice as long as the initial streak!
Why does this happen?
*Teams who are on a roll have a few things going against them. They get
overconfident. The top players start worrying about their stats because the
wins seem to be taking care of themselves. The teams get a target on their
backs because of all the publicity. Since the streak is happening now, it's
also going to set up some revenge spots for opponents in the second half of
the round robin schedules. And, sometimes a roll is simply a matter of the
kids playing over their heads. The shots are falling at a pace that can't
possibly continue. So, the players are about to lose their focus at the same
time their luck from the floor is about to change. A double whammy.
*As this is going on, the wagering public is noticing the success and
betting on the hot teams. This drives the lines higher than they should be
given the actual talent on the floor. In Vegas terms, the hot teams are
becoming overpriced.
*Teams who are slumping rarely just sit still and take their lumps. The
coaches make changes in the personnel rotations. The kids get tired of
losing and bring more energy and intensity to their games. Their opponents
may even stop taking them seriously because they know of the losing record,
and they can see in game films that the team doesn't look particularly
dangerous. Sometimes luck is involved here as well. Some teams have
stretches where the shots just don't fall. A team that's destined to shoot
43% for the year is just as likely to have some 38% slumps as they are some
48% hot streaks. Sure, there are definitely some truly awful teams in
college basketball. Most will typically make adjustments in a way that helps
them overcome very low expectations.
*As this is going on, the wagering public sees the poor results and decides
they won't touch these teams with a 10-foot pole the rest of the way. Once a
wagerer sees a team play badly, that team becomes poison. It doesn't matter
if they're getting 20 points, there's just no way the general public can bet
on a team that's put some ugly scores on the board. If the public bets the
game at all, it's going to bet on the opponent. In Vegas terms, the slumping
teams are becoming underpriced.
And, this is why the approach has worked so well over the years in both
college and pro football.
*Hot teams become overpriced just as they're about to cool off and it takes
forever for the lines to get back in synch with reality. The public keeps
expecting the team to bounce back. Teams can't bounce back to playing over
their heads if they were just getting lucky. Arrogant players take forever
to become humble again.
*Cold teams become underpriced just as they're about to make adjustments
that lead to improvement. They're going to be competitive for awhile, and
the Vegas pointspreads are going to keep treating them like blowout fodder.
This is how a team that's 4-0 ATS lately goes 3-7 ATS or 2-8 ATS in its next
10 games. And, it's how a team that's 0-4 ATS lately can start stringing
together covers. You won't beat the line every single time. But, you'll be
pulling your selections from a winning reservoir. The odds for success will
very much be in your favor.
If you're having trouble so far in college hoops, this particular strategy
will likely lead to a reversal of your fortunes as well!
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