College Basketball: True Colors
Now that college basketball teams are well into conference play, many are
showing their true colors.
What do I mean by that?
*Teams who don't play much defense are getting exposed inside. They could
hide this weakness against soft non-conference schedules or by pushing tempo
in home games in front of friendly referees. Now that conference play has
begun, opponents will patiently work the ball for an open look. More often
than not, they'll drain the shot. That's why teams who had acceptable
defensive field goal percentage numbers are now suddenly allowing upwards of
48% shooting per game.
*Teams who only have one offensive star are suddenly finding that threat
neutralized or taken away by opposing defenses. Great college players can
have field days vs. soft non-conference opponents. This is particularly true
if they're protected by the refs in November and December. Now that the
games matter to both teams involved, star players find themselves double
teamed, or otherwise taken out of the flow of the offense.
*Teams who can't rebound are suddenly finding that it's one and done in
terms of shot selection. They can't get sloppy and throw up bad shots any
more. That's the same thing as a turnover against quality conference foes.
Teams who aren't disciplined on offense are finding out what a negative that
can be in this sport.
*Teams who can't play well on the road are now forced to play on the road
every week! There are many teams like this at the college level. They build
up impressive won-loss records by playing a lot of home games in the first
two months. If they do travel, it might be to a nearby site against a team
from a lesser conference. Many youngsters (and, this sport is younger than
ever) are truly playing in hostile territory for the first few times of the
season lately.
*Teams with a touch of arrogance are finding out that they can't take their
foot off the gas pedal. We've seen several upsets and near upsets the past
couple of weeks where big name favorites lacked fire. Powerhouse teams can
get complacent. When they run into an opponent that's fired up for the game,
it's going to be a war. A new batch of kids has to learn about this every
year. You just can't relax at this level.
Based on the notes above, you should now have a very good sense of who can't
play defense, who has a one-dimensional offense, who can't rebound, who
can't play on the road, and who gets cocky after a few victories. If you
don't have that sense yet about the teams you follow, then you really
shouldn't be placing Las Vegas wagers. These are the keys to success and
failure when handicapping college basketball. The teams themselves will
literally announce their strengths and weaknesses to anyone willing to
listen.
Think about your local conference. Wherever you live, you've been following
one of the local conferences closely in the newspaper or on TV. Which teams
are struggling on defense? Which teams have multiple offensive weapons?
Which teams win blowouts at home but come and go on the road?
Most fans and wagerers make the mistake of listening to media hype about
coaches, players, and rivalries; rather than thinking about handicapping
keys. You may know which star is destined for the NBA. Do you know which
offense can work the ball around and consistently shoot 48% or better from
the floor? You may know which coach is either a living legend or a young
up-and-comer. What are their ATS records in conference play the last few
years? You may know which schools just hate each other. How do those teams
perform when not playing a blood rival?
The media is focused on telling stories. In some cases they'll bend over
backwards to hide the negatives about a team or a coach. There's an
unwritten rule in journalism that you don't focus on the negatives of
youngsters, or of the men who guide them. In terms of what's best for the
spirit of community, it's hard to argue with that. You can't pick winners
that way though. Handicappers have to know both the positives and the
negatives.
Conference play is where teams show their true colors. Pay attention so you
can paint a handicapping masterpiece!
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