Oddsmaker Headaches Means Handicapping Profits
To give you some insights into why college basketball creates such headaches
for oddsmakers, I merely need to point you to the San Juan shootout played
last week in Puerto Rico.
This was an 8-team three-day tournament with championship and consolation
brackets. All eight teams would play three games.
On the opening day, oddsmakers ended up having the eventual straight-up
loser favored in three of the four games. The one they got right involved
host team PR Mayaguez, who was a sure thing to lose every game. Underdogs
went 3-0 in the other matchups, covering their spreads by 4, 9, and 20
points. Pre-tournament favorite Virginia lost by 11 points to unheralded
Appalachian State.
On the second day, oddsmakers went 2-2. They knew PR Mayaguez would lose,
but they posted a 24-point spread and the team only lost by seven.
Pre-tournament favorite Virginia lost 94-70 as a 4-point favorite over Utah. That was expected to be the semifinals of the championship bracket.
Instead, it was the semifinals of the consolation bracket. Unheralded
Appalachian State upset Central Florida to move into the finals. Three of
the four games missed the Vegas spread by double digits.
On the final day, oddsmakers went 2-2 again. One was the gimme, as
pre-tournament favorite Virginia managed to sneak by host school PR Mayaquez
59-52 as 25-point chalk. Appalachian State completed their "shock the
island" tour with an 87-79 overtime win over Vanderbilt to win the Shootout.
That's 12 games. If you throw out those involving the host, the favorite
only went 2-7 straight up in the remaining matchups.
How could the smartest minds in the oddsmaking industry do such a bad job of
handicapping a college basketball tournament? You know what? It wasn't that
bad a job based on how the teams stood going into the event. And, if they
played it again next week, Virginia could very well win the whole thing,
with Appalachian State ending up in the 7th place on the other end of the
brackets. Within a small sample, this sport really can be that
unpredictable.
Here are some reasons why:
*Three-point shooting is very erratic. Teams blow hot and cold from
game-to-game, or week-to-week. This leads to huge volatility in game-by-game
results.
*Free throw attempts are at the whim of officials. Different arbiters see
games differently. Sometimes you pick up 20-30 points at the charity stripe.
Sometimes you don't even get 10 attempts. Free throw shooting is also
erratic. It's become a lost art. Some teams will struggle to hit 50% every
so often. Others are near automatic, particularly if their guards are
protecting a lead late in the game.
*Kids will be kids. We're talking about youngsters who just haven't matured
enough yet to maintain consistency in their performance. They get
overconfident easily (some were BORN overconfident). They lose their
composure easily. They take low percentage shots when they should work for
something better. They throw passes they shouldn't throw when they're in
position for high percentage shots.
Add it all up, and it's just bedlam within a 40-minute game. It's not the
oddsmakers' fault that the lines missed reality so much in Puerto Rico . The
sport itself is that volatile in the current era.
How could anyone pick winners in a sport like this?
You look for reversals. If a team just a had a great result because of red
hot three point shooting or friendly officiating, you go against them in the
next game. The public will respond to the misleading final score and bet the
team up. You go the other way and get free points in your favor.
If a team just won a rout, even without lucky shooting, assume they're going
to get overconfident and fall back to earth. It seems to happen now more
than ever in this sport. Again, the public wants to back the hot team. You
know that arrogance is likely to kick them in the hind quarters.
If a good team just had a bad result because of unlucky shooting, jump on
them the next game. It won't always work. Virginia just kept floundering all
week on the island. More often than not, you'll be on the right side when
things boomerang back to where they're supposed to be.
It's vital that you read college basketball boxscores so you can make proper
assessments of all the teams. Let the oddsmakers endure the headaches.
You'll be putting the percentages in your favor by seeing the right times to
zig, and the right times to zag.
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