Conference Championships
We've got a very interesting set of college football conference championship
games coming up this weekend. It's an absolute certainty that nobody
anticipated this set of matchups in the major conferences.
It's not like there are one or two surprises. Virtually no preseason
favorites are still alive in their conferences. Florida was supposed to win
the SEC East, and they did. Otherwise, it's a collection of teams that
haven't played in this kind of atmosphere recently, or ever.
How do you handicap games like this? Remember the fundamentals:
*DEFENSE WINS CHAMPIONSHIPS: Study the defensive strengths and weaknesses of
all the teams involved. The general public is prone to fall in love with
offenses. This warps the line in the direction of high scoring teams.
Postseason football has made it clear that good defenses are undervalued in
big games. Be sure you know which teams are best against the run, which
teams are best at forcing turnovers, and which teams are best at clamping
down in the red zone and keeping teams out of the end zone.
The cast of "usual suspects" that typically play in these championship games
were often very strong in these areas. It's not that the big time programs
forgot to play defense this year. It's that many other teams have improved
so much on that side of the ball that they put themselves in position to
climb the ladder.
*RUNNING GAMES WIN CHAMPIONSHIPS: After looking at the defenses, look at the
running games. Once again, this is because of openings in the Vegas
pointspreads created by public perception. The public loves quarterbacks who
post big numbers that help their teams run up the score. This typically
isn't how championships are won. They are won on the ground.
You see, running the ball is the safest way to move the chains and work your
way toward the end zone. Passing teams put up a lot of points, but it's with
a high risk method that's prone to break down under pressure. Passing teams
also have trouble running the clock with a lead. Running teams can play
defense with their offense just by taking time off the clock during their
drives.
Which style of football would you trust most to avoid turnovers? Which style
of football would you trust most with a lead and 10 minutes to go in the
game?
*SPECIAL TEAMS CAN BE A TIE-BREAKER: We've all seen countless big games come
down to special teams play. Both offenses are good, both defenses are good,
and the straight up win and pointspread cover ends up coming down to which
team properly executes field goals (or doesn't), and which team busts a long
run on a kick return (or doesn't).
The day after Thanksgiving, LSU and Arkansas were about equally productive
on offense in their SEC matchup. LSU won and covered thanks to a kick return
TD. We're may see at least one conference championship decided in similar
fashion. Be sure you know which teams have confidence in their field goal
kicker and which teams have the kind of athletes that can bust a long
return.
*STUDY WHAT EACH TEAM HAS DONE VERSUS BOWL CALIBER OPPOSITION: It's very
important that stat handicappers look at the right numbers when evaluating a
conference championship game. You can't be swayed by how impressive some
teams were when they blew out patsies. This is the one thing that tricks the
public more than anything.
Team A will call off the dogs with a 30-point lead.
Team B will call off the dogs with a 40-point lead.
The public will decide that Team B is the better team, even though the teams
are basically even. In championship games, and in bowl games down the road,
there are a lot of games matching teams who are basically even. They don't
have even stats because of how their coaches handle blowouts, or because one
team has better backups in garbage time. This doesn't matter when it's
starters versus starters with a trophy at stake.
Keep this statistical pollution out of your analysis by focusing on how the
teams have done against bowl caliber opposition.
*LOOK AT STYLES OF PLAY WHEN PICKING TOTALS: When championships are on the
line, styles of play tend to magnify each other. Two up tempo teams will get
into very high scoring shootouts. Two run-based defensive teams will get
into very low scoring wars. The Vegas totals tend to underestimate things on
the extremes. They'll post high totals in the shootouts, but they'll still
be too low by 10-14 points. They'll post low totals in the wrestling
matches, but they'll still be too high by 10-14 points.
See if you can uncover some winning possibilities along these lines with
Over/Unders in the upcoming championship games.
When it comes to handicapping the most important college football matchups,
the bottom line is this: America's smash mouth handicapper is telling you
that smash mouth football wins championships!
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