Stats Can Lie
When we reach the final weeks of the college football season, a lot of
bettors decide that it's safe to use statistical averages to evaluate teams.
They'll say that a team is averaging 220 rushing yards per game, or a
defense is allowing 250 passing yards per game. Then, they'll make their
selections based on these averages.
This is one of those things that works often enough just to get you in
trouble. You win some games, and you start to think that these stats are the
key to understanding who wins and covers.
Stats are only relevant to the degree that they help you understand the
strengths and weaknesses of a team. Sure, this is vital. But, it's not the
whole picture. And stat averages in particular can send you off in the wrong
direction very easily.
Some quick examples:
*Stat averages compiled against a difficult schedule don't tell you what a
team will do against a soft opponent.
*Stat averages compiled against an easy schedule don't tell you what a team
will do against a tough opponent.
*Stat averages compiled in good weather don't tell you what a team will do
in poor weather.
*Stat averages compiled with a starting quarterback don't tell you what a
team will do with the backup quarterback.
*Stat averages compiled against fresh defenses don't tell you what a team
will do later in the season when defenses start to wear down.
*Stat averages compiled early in the season with an inexperienced
quarterback don't tell you what a team will do if the youngster starts to
learn the ropes and gain confidence.
*Stat averages compiled before a head coach is fired don't tell you what a
team will do after the news breaks that he will no longer be with the team
after the season.
I think you get the point by now. If you're using stat averages without
making these mental adjustments, you're going to be constantly scratching
your head while watching your picks lose. You thought a team had a great
defense because of the stats, but now a top notch offense is moving at will
and lighting up the scoreboard. You thought a team had a poor offense, but
they changed quarterbacks and the backup turned out to be a much better
player than anticipated.
I strongly suggest that you log statistics on a game-by-game basis, or at
least find a website that will break things down for you in this manner.
This allows you to do the following:
*Chart the progression of offenses and defenses during the season. Actually,
with defenses, this can be regression because some get worse through
attrition later in the season.
*Break down how each team has done vs. strong or weak opponents. Then, apply
those insights into how they'll do against this week's opponent. This is
much better approach then using averages unless the team you're studying is
playing an average opponent.
This approach will give you a much deeper understanding of college football
teams. Stat averages are an appealing shortcut at first glance. But, once
you've tried these other methods, you'll see that averages are just
statistical mud. They muck up the process rather than providing a clean path
to success.
Don't forget to factor in the weather in these late season games. I talked
about that a few weeks ago. Some teams have already played some bad weather
games that have created misleading stats. Well, those stats will be
misleading if they've got good weather this week. If the weather is bad
again, those boxscores will give you a great sense of how teams handle
unfriendly conditions.
In the final weeks of the season, you should be trying to determine the
following in every game you handicap:
*What are the true strengths and weaknesses of each team?
*Are either of these teams better or worse than the public realizes because
the stat averages are misleading?
*What are the motivations for a peak performance from either team this
weekend?
*Are there possible distractions that would lead to a unfocused performance
from either team?
*How will the weather conditions hurt or help the offenses drive the field
to find the end zone?
If you're serious about picking winners, you can't take shortcuts. There are
no shortcuts to the winner's circle.
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