Stretch Run Handicapping
Because of the offseason rules changes, and changes in the nature of college
football that we discussed earlier in the season, I strongly believe the
weather will have a big impact on scoring in the latter half of the season.
Remember all of those games you watched in the first two weeks where it
seemed like neither team could score any points? Games stayed Under at about
a 65 percent clip across the board in those first two weeks.
Weather wasn't an issue back then. At the time, it was the fact that modern
college defenses have gotten so good at pressuring the quarterback that it
took everyone a few weeks to adjust. Combine that with rules changes that
sped up the game, and scoring plummeted.
Scoring picked up around week three when offenses finally established timing
with downfield receivers. Quarterbacks started making the proper reads and
defenses became more vulnerable. Scoring was still down from prior seasons
because the games were faster. But at least offenses were finding the end
zone.
When the weather turns, as it's about to, downfield timing is going to get
all messed up again. Passing accuracy will likely take a turn for the worse
because of wind (and sometimes rain or snow). Aggressive defenses will again
wreak havoc with offenses that rely on the pass.
As a result:
*Teams who emphasize the pass with spread offenses will have big trouble
driving the field or pulling off big plays.
*Teams who fall behind and have to pass to play catch up will find it much
more difficult this year than in the past. Moving the ball against a defense
with a lead in poor weather is tough enough. Doing it against aggressive
defenses is almost impossible. You saw this in the West Virginia/Connecticut
game last week. UConn's only TD came on a very short drive after a turnover,
even though they spent the whole second half trying to pass while trailing
by thee-to-four touchdowns.
*Teams with strong rushing games that have mastered moving the chains can
run out the clock much more effectively than in past seasons. Conservative
coaches who just want to win and go home will be able to take care of
business. You saw Michigan do that against Penn State on national TV in a
game that got nowhere near the Vegas total.
*Games that match run-based teams will turn into punt-fests because the
defenses can stack the line and jam the running backs before they can get
anywhere.
Put just one of those elements on the field in late October and November in
cool weather areas and it's going to affect scoring. Put two of them on at
the same time (say, an underdog that relies too much on the downfield pass
matched up against a conservative team that can run clock), and you'll see
games that stay under the Las Vegas totals by 21 points or more. Just like
you saw in the first two weeks of the season when the offenses were
overmatched.
You owe it to yourself to check the weather forecasts each Saturday in all
the following areas:
*Northeast (Big East country, along with teams like Army and Temple , and
Boston College from the ACC).
* Midwest (Big Ten country, the MAC, the Big 12 North).
*Mid-Atlantic (Some years, the teams in the geographic middle of the
Atlantic Coast Conference have to deal with poor conditions from mid
November onward).
*Pacific Northwest (the Oregon and Washington teams in the PAC 10, along
with Boise State and Idaho).
*Mountain Time Zone (the Mountain West conference has some good defenses
this year, so this is an area of particular importance).
I'm not saying all games in these areas will stay under their totals the
rest of the way. But the games in tough weather with the key factors we
mentioned regarding passing offenses and aggressive defenses are extremely
likely to stay under possibly 60 percent or more of the time.
This should be one of the easiest and most profitable wagering strategies
you could use in the second half of the season. Take advantage!
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