Don't Overlook the Mid-Majors!
So much attention is paid to the national TV games and the BCS race, that
you can often find some great winning opportunities in the leagues that are
under the radar.
I've found over the years that the best places to find really HUGE errors
are with mid major teams who haven't been on TV.
That includes:
*The Sun Belt conference, because those teams are never on TV.
*Conference USA teams that haven't been on TV yet, not including Southern
Miss.
*Mid-American conference teams that haven't been on TV yet.
*WAC teams that haven't been on TV in marquee windows.
There are a few of us in Las Vegas who focus on those leagues in football,
and similar conferences in college basketball. We figure we're going to have
much bigger edges there than in the games that are loaded down with
prominent media coverage.
In the past month, surprising pointspread slumps by UTEP of CUSA and Fresno
State of the WAC have made this point very clearly. Because these teams have
gained respect from oddsmakers and wagerers in recent seasons, they were
consistently overpriced during slumps.
If UTEP had been on TV at some point this season, maybe somebody would have
noticed. If Fresno State hadn't just been playing in games of regional
interest, maybe somebody would have seen that the team had totally lost its
confidence.
Given the context of recent games played by these teams, the size of the
pointspread misses were astounding. Not only did they miss expectations, but
the money was coming down heavily on those teams. They couldn't take
advantage of edges most everyone assumed they had.
* FRESNO STATE had a bye week to recover from tough losses to Oregon and
Washington (who are both decent teams this year). Instead of using that to
set up a peak performance at home against Colorado State , the Bulldogs lost
35-23 as a 13-point favorite. They missed the spread by 25 points.
The next week, when they surely should have had a chip on their shoulder,
Fresno lost to a truly awful Utah State team 13-12 as 27-point favorites.
That's a miss by 28 points. In back-to-back weeks, Fresno State missed the
spread by a total of 53 points! This past Saturday's loss was the most
humiliating, dropping a 68-37 tilt to Hawaii, while getting just 4 points. A
spread miss by 27!
*UTEP had a bye week to recover from a heartbreaking loss to Texas Tech. It
was assumed they'd have no trouble with struggling New Mexico after that
break. Instead, the Miners lost 26-13 as a 9-point favorite. That's a
22-point miss from expectations. And again, the expectations were really
higher because there was a lot of money on UTEP in the bounce back spot.
The next week, when they should have been breathing fire after a pair of
straight up losses, they barely held on to beat New Mexico State 44-38 as a
16-point favorite. That was a double digit miss from expectations.
On October 7, the money POUNDED the guys from El Paso all day when news
broke that SMU had suspended its starting quarterback. SMU didn't have a
backup with any experience, so UTEP went from being a 10-point favorite to a
14-point favorite. They only won by three! This team, that's supposed to
contend for the CUSA title managed a 24-21 win over a team that didn't have
a quarterback. That's a total miss of 43 points over the three games.
This is what I mean about the SIZE of the edge for sharp wagerers in these
conferences. If you're in synch with what's going on at these programs,
you'll be winning your bets by two, three, and even four touchdowns.
I've cherry-picked two prominent teams that had been making headlines the
last two seasons. If you dig deeper, you'll find some amazing misses with
lesser known teams that you had probably been ignoring. I strongly suggest
you do that digging. How else are you going to find the buried treasure?
Will UTEP and Fresno State continue to struggle all season? Good coaches
usually find a way to fix problems, but Fresno is very slow on defense and
their confidence is shot. Not a good combination heading to Baton Rouge this
week. UTEP still has plenty of time to get things rolling in CUSA play.
They're 2-0 in conference action and 4-2, overall. Just make sure you see
improvement happening before you bet on it.
I can't tell you how much whining I heard back on October 7th from people
who had loaded up on either or both of these teams figuring blowouts were
imminent. If they had been studying what the teams had been doing in prior
weeks, they could have avoided that disaster. The oddsmakers were wrong
about these teams, but the sportsbooks still made money on the games because
the general public was even more wrong!
Diligent homework will allow you to avoid these traps!
|
|
