Post Separation Saturday!
Last Saturday was truly one of the biggest days in recent college football
history. It may not have lived up to expectations in a few sites. But on the
whole, it was definitely a day that will weigh heavily in determining the
BCS picture two months down the road.
Now what?
The next few Saturdays aren't going to be nearly as exciting. There will be
a few big games here and there, but not wall-to-wall big games all day long.
Fans will definitely suffer a letdown. Many of the teams you watched
supposedly separate themselves from the pack will as well.
Here are some tips for handicapping the next few weeks in the wake of
Separation Saturday.
*Look for the winners of the big games to be flat. They won't all be flat.
But taken as a composite, the winners of the big games are likely to have
losing ATS records over the few weeks. The oddsmakers will boost their lines
in their games, the general public will be all over them because those teams
"rose" to the occasion when the pressure was on. Those two factors will
create bigger hurdles to clear just as the letdown is likely to hit. And,
don't forget that all of this past Saturday's winners now have a big target
painted on their chests. Upcoming opponents will be fired up to score an
upset.
*Look for the losers of the big games to suffer a bit of a hangover. The
tendency for most wagerers is to look for the bounce back immediately. They
figure the losers will have a big chip on their shoulders, and will take out
their frustrations on an unlucky opponent that's in the wrong place at the
wrong time. We've all seen that happen. But recent history has shown that
it's become a delayed effect. The disappointed losers need a week to recover
from the brutal physicality of college football play at its peak level. It's
two weeks and three weeks later when those "take no prisoners" blowouts
occur.
*Remember that a lot of big name teams weren't playing in marquee matchups
on Separation Saturday. Those teams want attention, and are likely to play
well until they have their first danger game of the season. West Virginia is
an example from last Thursday night. They knew they needed to make some news
against Maryland or everyone would forget about them. They won the first
quarter 28-0, and the first half 38-10. Look for big name teams who are
still biding their time to have explosive starts like this vs. weaker
opponents. Consider taking them at first quarter and first half lines as
well.
*After these additional teams finally play their big game, follow the same
principals. That means you look for letdowns from the winners and a hangover
followed by eventual vengeance from the loser. It's actually a cycle that
goes on all season if you know how to look for it.
The key to remember is this. The Las Vegas lines react to expectations from
the general public. The general public typically overreacts to things they
see on television. As we speak, the general public is coming off a huge
weekend of watching television! There will be many false numbers in the
coming weeks that sharp handicappers will be able to take advantage of.
The public will overreact to the results. The pundits on all of those studio
shows will overreact to the results. Your local newspaper columnists will
overreact to the results. The winners from Separation Saturday will take on
"mythic" proportions even though they're the same teams this week they were
before those games were played. Same players, same coaches, same strengths,
same weaknesses.
Don't make your selections based on what you think you saw on TV. Don't let
a guy in a suit on Sportscenter convince you that somebody is now national
championship material just because things clicked well on a Saturday in
mid-September.
Make your selections based on what you know happens after big TV games!
Recent history is very clear the past few seasons. The big news over the
next six weeks will be the upsets suffered by the teams everyone thought had
separated themselves. Yes, a handful of teams will find a way to survive
unscathed. Most won't. But all of them will be dealing with inflated
expectations that will make it very difficult to cover spreads.
Smash Mouth handicapping means you're NOT the guy getting smashed in the
mouth! Play it smart and take advantage of hype you know is going to follow
this past Saturday's winners.
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