QB Development: Myth or Reality?
You probably hear all the time from TV announcers that certain college
football quarterbacks are "maturing" or "developing" as they get older.
Everyone struggles when they first become a starter. But, the more starts
they get, the better decisions they make. Experienced quarterbacks make
fewer turnovers, and lead more scoring drives. There's a universal learning
curve, and everyone's on it.
BUNK! This is one of the biggest myths about college football that I know. And, it
can cause handicappers to make some very big mistakes when they try to
anticipate something that isn't going to happen.
Quarterback is obviously the most important position on the football field.
So, it gets the majority of attention from analysts and pundits looking to
fill the ridiculous number of hours of pregame hype every week. College
announcers tend to avoid criticizing youngsters. This means they will focus
on the handful of quarterbacks who are showing development, while ignoring
the dozens who aren't!
Think about it this way. There are about 120 Division-1A college football
teams on the board in Las Vegas . Each of those teams has one starting
quarterback. Many have a second guy who's knocking on the door because he
also wants to be the starter. Let's say that's 180 quarterbacks for
handicappers to keep track of. Do you think all of them get better over
time? Are all 180 on the learning curve that's supposed to exist?
If you actually study the stats of players as they mature, you find that
most college quarterbacks don't get that much better. It's too difficult a
position to master. Too many reads and decisions to make. Not enough game
experience from year-to-year to really make any big jumps.
Now, I'm sure you're all thinking of guys in your local conference who did
get better over time. I'm not saying it never happens. It's just that it
doesn't happen nearly as often as you'd think. And, this is even true for
big name quarterbacks. Remember Chris Simms at Texas ? He was throwing dumb
interceptions in his senior year. Heck, the last pass of his career was a
bad interception against LSU in the Cotton Bowl. You all probably watched
the Florida State/Miami game the opening week where ESPN's studio guys
literally spent THREE STRAIGHT DAYS assuring you both starting quarterbacks
were going to be better that night than they were last year. Didn't happen.
As handicappers, you've really got to get a grip on this issue. You've got
to know what the indicators are for improvement and accept that it's
probably not going to happen for about 75% of the teams on the board. What
you saw last year is what you'll get this year. What you saw last week is
what you'll get this week.
Here are the indicators that suggest real improvement:
*A gradual increase in completion percentage or a sustained increase in
completion percentage after a big jump. Sometimes it all clicks for a QB at
one time. You've got to make sure he's sharp a couple of weeks in a row
before accepting this as real improvement.
*An absence of interceptions. You can't trust a guy who throws at least one
per game, and you've got to go against guys who are consistently throwing
two per game.
*Consistent passing yardage marks in the 200s. The days of weekly 300 yard
passing games for the top teams are long gone (except when USC is in the
mood to show off). If you see a guy who settles in the 180s or 190s many
weeks, you're not looking at a guy you can trust in big games. The signal
callers who have matured or developed into clear threats will crack the
220-250 range consistently, with occasional peaks into the 300s. And they'll
do this with a decent completion percentage and few giveaways.
If you start grading quarterbacks by these parameters, you'll be stunned by
how many across the country continue to struggle through their full careers.
They never develop the touch required for completion percentage accuracy.
They continue to make bad decisions and throw into traffic. Any yardage that
matters only comes against very weak defenses or in cupcake games at the
start of the season.
Bottom line: don't listen to the media regarding quarterbacks. Do your own
research and learn what's really happening. Back the handful of guys who
have established that they've learned what to do. Go against the guys who
you know are going to be in over their heads. Don't make the mistake of
assuming an experienced QB is going to climb the ladder this year. I can't
tell you how many times the past two weeks I've heard wagerers in the
sportsbooks moaning about the quarterbacks they bet on. In every single
case, it was a returning starter who was making the same mistakes he made
last year.
That means these gamblers were making the same mistakes THEY were making
last year as well. Think about that for a second. Today's tip isn't just
about young athletes failing to improve, it's also about how handicappers
fail to improve. You're the quarterback of your sports gambling effort. Make
the right reads and improve your game.
Understanding the true dynamics of the QB position is a great way to start.
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