Pro Football Stats: Read Between the Lines
It's the first full week of the pro football season. Already there are mountains of stats and angles available for sports bettors to digest from this season and years past. Information certainly is a huge key when analyzing games and point spreads. Sometimes it can seem that there is too much info, but it's essential to understand that stats are only a starting point. Stats don't always tell the whole story. In fact, stats can sometimes lie.
Sure, it's important to ask such questions as, "How many yards passing per game does this team get? How big is this offensive line compared to the opponent? Is a great quarterback going up against a team with slow defensive backs? What's their home record the last five years, straight up and against the spread?" However, it's important to learn when to look beyond stats. For example, here are some stats from the 2005 NFL season:
*The Cardinals were 8th in total defense.
*The Chiefs ranked 7th against the run.
*The Packers were No. 1 in pass defense.
*The Cardinals were No. 9 in total offense.
*The Falcons had the No. 1 rushing offense.
*The Saints were 3rd in pass defense.
*The Cardinals were No. 1 in passing offense.
Now, all of those stats are true. However, they don't tell the real story about a football team's strengths, either. For instance, the Packers statistically may have ranked No. 1 against the pass, but they allowed 22 passing touchdowns, which was 10th worst in the NFL. And their run defense was 23rd, so overall the defense had more deficiencies than strengths.
The Cardinals may have had the No. 1 passing offense, but that was because they had the worst running game. They also fell behind a lot, being forced to go to the air, and were a poor scoring team in the red zone. So that No. 9 offensive ranking in 2005 is very deceptive. The Falcons were No. 1 in rushing, but near the bottom in passing. A successful NFL offense isn't one-dimensional.
The Kansas City Chiefs ranked 7th overall against the run, which is very misleading. They were a bad all-around defensive team, even against the run, allowing 4.6 and 4.0 yards per carry the last two years, tying for worst in the NFL in 2004. Their 2005 ranking was deceptive because the pass defense was awful (30th), as KC stacked the line to stop the run in DC Gunther Cunningham's attacking defense, but were vulnerable against the pass.
You can make a similar case about the Denver Broncos the last few seasons - great offensive stats, but not a dominant offensive team. Part of what happens with Denver is that they run a ball-control offense, grinding out good yardage on the ground with their running back depth and zone blocking schemes, in addition to a safe, short/medium passing game.
They can control the clock and put up impressive numbers on both sides of the ball, but that doesn't always turn into points behind QB Jake Plummer. At times Plummer is weak when it comes to decision-making on the field, especially with the heat on, which was evident in the home AFC Championship game loss to Pittsburgh. It may look good on the stat sheet when Denver drives 65 yards in 10 plays and chews up the clock, but not when you look closer and see they settled for a field goal or Plummer panicked and chucked one to the other team. In 2003, Denver was 7th in total offense and 4th in defense, yet struggled to make the playoffs, where they were routed by Indy. In 2004 Denver had the No. 6 passing offense, though Plummer had 20 interceptions.
The last two years the Steelers ranked 28th and 24th in passing offense, yet those "poor" stats are deceptive. The Steelers are primarily a power-running team, and highly successful at it, getting out in front early and then chewing up the clock. It worked often, too, during a 15-1 regular season in 2004 and winning the Super Bowl last year. They didn't need to pass a lot, although when they were forced to pass, they were able to move the ball through the air with QB Ben Roethlisberger and terrific wide receivers, which was the case during their playoff run. The stats may suggest a poor passing team, but the reality is quite different. Successful handicappers dig deep and weigh all different kinds of information before heading to the betting window.
|
|
40% FREE BET 
