College Football: The Evolution of the Game
The college game is literally changing before our eyes at an incredible
speed. The way it's played now is very different than the way it was played
at the turn of this past century. Go back 15-20 years, and the game is
hardly recognizable after the ball is snapped.
Don't believe me?
Think about these factors:
*The passing game used to send everyone way downfield, while the quarterback
sat back in a comfort zone trying to find an opening. Now, most passes are
quick slants or little dump-offs meant to safely pick up quality yardage.
Instead of going for the home run, college offenses are playing small ball.
*The rushing game used to emphasize power up the middle or slashers who
could cut through holes. Now, you only see power when a major conference
team is lined up against a September cupcake or a league patsy. Slashers are
still around, but they only find openings when the passing game has spread
everyone out. Defenses are much more sophisticated about plugging holes and
jamming the line. That will be much more clear to you in the coming weeks
when more of the top 50 teams are playing each other.
*Defenses used to play 'prevent' almost all the time. Even the best defenses
would sit back and dare the other team to go 80 yards on them. Now, all but
the worst defenses are constantly attacking the line. The blitzes aren't as
complicated as those you see in the NFL. But, they're complicated enough to
wreak havoc on inexperienced offensive backfields.
In short, college football is following along a few steps behind the NFL.
I've simplified things a bit in the examples above. But in general, it's a
very accurate description of how things have evolved. That means that
handicappers have to evolve as well. What worked for you a few years ago may
not even apply any more for many of the teams. If you were a big success in
the 1990'S, congratulations. You're may be old news. Just like many of the
head coaches who saw their records get worse and worse when they couldn't
keep up with the times.
I promised to tell you the hidden key to picking winners in college football
this year. Here it is. MOVING THE CHAINS. You've already seen this season
that teams who are able to safely and effectively move the ball are
controlling the flow of their games. The rules changes affecting the game
clock make this more important that ever.
Teams who can keep moving the chains on offense are going to win and cover.
Teams who can't will find themselves punting all night long. Turn it around,
and the defenses who can come up big on third down plays will be getting the
money for you. Defenses who can't get off the field are going to wear down
and give up even more points later in a game than they do early on.
I believe this is the single biggest factor affecting college football this
year and the single biggest factor handicappers should be studying.
When you watch games on TV, pay very close attention to what happens on
third down plays. Does the quarterback make smart decisions and get the ball
where it needs to be? Or, does he throw too far downfield hoping to get
lucky? Do the running backs drive for the extra yard when it's critical? Or,
are they just posers who need an open field to be effective?
On defense, does the stop unit jam the line and really emphasize trying to
shut down the play? Or, do they fall back into old habits and sit back,
hoping for an incomplete pass? I had a lot of success in the second half of
last season going against defensive coordinators who played timidly on third
downs. It's amazing how many longtime coaches still sit back and hope the
other team throws an incomplete pass. Winners make something happen!
How do you handle games that aren't on TV? Try to find boxscores that have
third down conversions. Many wire services leave this stat out
unfortunately. But there are a few places that list the numbers. Typically,
the home city newspapers of college teams give you a very comprehensive
rundown of a game's stats. At the very least, you can count up the number of
punts. Teams who punted several times or had to settle for field goal
attempts obviously weren't coming up big on third downs. Teams who rarely
punted were moving the chains.
Focus on this key smash mouth factor, and you'll be very pleased with the
results!
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