NFL Preseason Pointers
The pro football preseason kicked off this past weekend in the Hall of Fame game as the Raiders topped the Eagles. Those teams had some significant new looks, with Philly trying to find a replacement for WR Terrell Owens and the Raiders trying to find a new quarterback. Even the Oakland coaching was new, with Head Coach Art Shell taking over. Remember that each season is different, with players changing teams, new coaches and assistants coming aboard, and star college players joining the pros as highly touted rookies. August football offers fans their first chance to get a peak at all the new additions.
This weekend, the Broncos and Lions meet, two teams with some interesting changes. The Broncos have pretty much the same team as a year ago, but in preseason football the starters don.5?t usually see much time in the opener. In this case, the Broncos have added rookie QB Jay Cutler, a first round pick. Mike Shanahan grabbing Cutler can be viewed two ways: He has his quarterback of the future down the road, or he has had it with jittery Jake Plummer. Keep a close eye on how Cutler develops in August.
The Lions have brand new looks all over the place, with Rod Marinelli in as head coach. He spent the past 10 seasons in Tampa Bay as defensive line coach. There are equally important changes to his assistants. The Lions hired Donnie Henderson as defensive coordinator, formerly with the Jets. He is a fiery, aggressive coordinator who believes in blitzing and attacking the opposition. The new offense coordinator is Mad Mike Martz, the former offensive wizard with the Rams. As a result, the style of play by Detroit on both sides of the ball could be very different. Note that Denver coach Mike Shanahan is 35-21 SU, 31-21-2 ATS in preseason, including 9-4 SU/8-5 ATS last three Augusts.
Of course, starters won't see a lot of time just yet, and for good reason. Who can forget three years ago when QB Michael Vick suffered a serious injury in August, wrecking his season (as well as the Atlanta Falcons.) No coach wants to jeopardize his job and no owner wants to risk his investment by losing a star player to a devastating injury in preseason.
Still, with coaches rotating players, examining depth, testing new game plans, and individual athletes battling for roster spots, there's plenty of competition in August. One thing to keep an eye on is subtle strategic adjustments. The Chicago Bears have second-year offensive coordinator Ron Turner, who brought in a modified version of the West Coast offense last season. It is geared toward receivers as opposed to running backs and tight ends in the passing game. With Rex Grossman healthy (for a change), it will be interesting to see if the Bears' offense improves or shows new wrinkles. A year ago in their first preseason game, the Bears exploded for 27 points in a victory over Miami.
Speaking of evolving offenses, the Baltimore Ravens will be an interesting team to watch. The Ravens finally saw marked improvement late last season from quarterback Kyle Boller. This year, Baltimore has brought in veteran QB Steve McNair, who is the starter. However, in preseason, the fragile McNair shouldn't see a lot of time and it will be fascinating to see if Boller, now the No. 2 QB, continues to develop. We get to see the Ravens this weekend against the Giants. By the way, Baltimore Head Coach Brian Billick is 17-10 Su, 16-11 ATS in preseason (5-3 SU/ATS the last two Augusts).
Also, keep and eye on home field play. In August of 2004, the home teams went 21-10-1 against the spread the first two weeks of preseason. A year ago, the home team went 10-5 SU/ATS in the first week of exhibition play. Sometimes coaches are disappointed with their team's first game, particularly if it's a road loss, and they want to see a more determined effort in Game 2, especially if it's in front of the home fans. This happened three years ago when Bill Parcells was in his first season in Dallas. After a 13-0 loss at Arizona in the opener, the Tuna ripped his team for its effort. A week later, at home, the Cowboys played like wild men in a 34-6 rout of the Texans as a 4-point favorite.
It's not uncommon for new coaches to want to prove something early on, even in preseason, while veteran coaches might take a different approach. I recall Marv Levy, former Head Coach of the Bills, who had a veteran team and rarely cared about preseason. Former St. Louis coach Mike Martz and Indy's Tony Dungy are also like that, taking it easy on veterans while often admitting they only want to stay healthy. Dungy.5?s Colts were 0-5 SU/ATS last season, starting exhibition play in Tokyo, Japan!
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