Interleague Revisited
With the rivalry weekend rematches bringing a close to interleague play for the 2006 season, it's a perfect time to consider what we did and didn't learn.
I can tell you what we didn't learn. We didn't learn anything from Sportcenter's analysis of the American League's rout of the National League this year! Their pundits were talking about the issue the other day. This was how one of them (who shall remain nameless) summed it up:
*There's not really much difference between the leagues.
*Detroit and Chicago happened to be hot when Interleague play started.
*The Twins have great lefthanders in Santana and Liriano and they'd do well in any league.
That was it. That's why the American League was about 50 games over .500 against the National League according to a talking head.
All three teams on the list are from the AL Central, but teams in the AL East and AL West also had success against the National League. Santana and Liriano are definitely tough to hit. That's two guys out of the 70-80 that are in the rotation for both leagues. How big an impact could they have on a huge overall discrepancy like that? And, Detroit and the Chicago White Sox have been hot all year against everyone. At some point you've got to stop using the word "hot" and use the phrase, "they are for real."
Here are the conclusions we can draw from interleague play as I see it:
*The American League is much better than the National League. It's not even close.
*The American League has better pitching, and more of it. You can see this just by totaling up the pitchers who get respect in the Vegas line. Hardly anyone in the NL does anymore. Two who do, Pedro Martinez and Bronson Arroyo used to pitch in the AL and are now posting better stats in the weaker league.
*The American League has more explosive offenses. Part of that is because they get to use the DH during their regular schedule while the NL doesn't.
But even the position players are better able to post big numbers when they run into mediocre pitching. We saw dozens of blowouts in interleague play where the AL teams just lit up the scoreboard even when their DH's were out of the lineup in NL parks. It's as if the entire NL has decided to play small ball, while the entire AL has followed the Earl Weaver model of playing for the big inning.
*Many NL teams weren't truly at full strength this year, exacerbating the problems. St. Louis didn't have Albert Pujols or a healthy pitching staff for some of their interleague games. The Cubs haven't been the same since Derek Lee's injury (recently returned), and they don't seem likely to ever see Kerry Wood and Mark Prior back at full strength. Roger Clemens came back for Houston to make two good appearances. But received very little support.
Don't let anyone tell you the leagues are evenly matched and this year was a fluke. That's not the case at all. We've got a combination of talent and approach that greatly favors the American League over a large set of games.
Boston and New York have been in an 'arms race' with each other for several years now, and many other teams have picked up the pace knowing they'll get left in the dust if they stand still. In the National League, St. Louis thinks they can coast into the playoffs, while it seems that Houston has learned they can blow off the first half of the season and still go all the way to the World Series. The NY Mets just recently started spending money wisely.
Bottom line: much of the game's best talent got swept up in the AL arms race leaving few options for the NL but to play small ball with the leftovers.
This can make a guy like Brandon Arroyo look much better than he really is, and even Pedro. Imagine what Roy Halladay would do if he switched leagues!
What you saw the past month isn't a case of a couple of teams getting hot or a couple of pitchers getting in a groove. It's the obvious result of a seismic shift in talent distribution in major league baseball. I hope you took advantage of this with your selections during interleague play.
How can you take advantage of this knowledge during the rest of THIS season?
Well, many of the gifts have been wrapped up and delivered. But you should be paying attention to which AL teams are best suited talent-wise to continue their recent runs. And, you should be thinking about which NL teams can somewhat simulate the AL brand of baseball during the coming pennant races. If the AL is going to crush the NL as a general rule, then the NL teams that play the right style can do the same thing in the second half of the season.
Check back over the weekend as we make a watch-list for wagering in the second half of the MLB season.
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