Rewards & Pitfalls of MLB Streaks
There have been a lot of extended winning and losing streaks of late in
major league baseball. The New York Mets had a long winning streak going
before losing to Baltimore Friday Night. The Oakland A's carried a long
winning streak into the weekend. On the other end of the spectrum, the
Arizona Diamondbacks, who we discussed some last week, have continued to
lose on a regular basis.
How should you handle streaks? I've heard a lot of different theories in this regard. All of them have
dangers. All of them have rewards. Today I wanted to outline what I think
are the BEST and WORST ways to deal with streaks.
The WORST! Don't try any Martingale systems. If you're not familiar with those, it's
where you keep betting on something to happen (or not happen) and you keep
doubling-up if you lose. The theory is that whatever you're chasing will
eventually happen and you'll show a profit at the end of the run.
*This is most commonly discussed in roulette, where people keep betting red
or black until it hits on the theory that there won't be a zillion of one or
the other in a row. Eventually your color comes up. You pocket the profit
then you go back to your base bet and start over.
*This has also been tried in blackjack. You can't possibly lose every hand
can you? Just keep doubling-up until you win a hand and show a profit then
you go back and start over.
*I've even heard of people trying it at no-limit online poker. They just
wait for a good hand, go all-in trying to double their money. If their
strong hand gets cracked, they buy in for twice the amount and try again.
Same principal.
In baseball, there are some bettors who will try this when they see a
streak. They believe that there's just too much parity for LONG streaks to
happen. So, after a streak hits three or four they start betting that it
will end. Eventually they're right.
What's the drawback? This sounds foolproof! It's not. The problem is that you have to have a massive bankroll to cover
the abnormal stretch that goes the wrong way. If you're doubling-up on red
when a dozen blacks in a row hit, do you have a million dollars to put on
the table? If you hit an unlucky stretch in blackjack, will there even be a
table that takes the limits you'll need to bet to recoup your losses?
What about baseball? Do I need to remind you about the 2006 Kansas City
Royals? I personally know of a guy who took a big hit because he decided
THIS was the year that the strategy would work and he had to stop and lick
his wounds in late April because the Kansas City disaster single-handedly
trumped any of the successes.
What works BEST? I think the best way to play streaks is to find those that have a logical
backdrop to them. You want to RIDE streaks because you can score a lot of
winners before the loser finally puts an end to it. Don't go against them
and keep chasing. That could lead to a bunch of losers followed by just one
winner. Ride the streaks so you've got the potential for just one loser, but
a lot of winners!
The catch is that you can't just jump on every streak once it hits two,
three, or whatever. Different handicappers have their different thresholds.
Parity does exist in baseball, and long streaks are relatively rare. This is
what tempts all of those Martingale guys in the fist place.
What I suggest is to look for streaks that can be tied to a logical reason.
Some examples:
*Hey, there's nothing better than the Arizona D-backs situation right after
the raid on Jason Grimsley's house. At best that was an enormous distraction
that kept the team from focusing on winning. At worst, it scared a bunch of
players to death and they stopped cheating! Anticipating a losing streak
there was logical.
*Look for good teams who just got healthy after dealing with some injuries.
I'll be watching the St. Louis Cardinals to make a run when Albert Pujols
gets back. I'll give him a few games to get his timing down again, then I'll
look for a winning streak.
*Look for bad teams to cool off if they were playing over their heads for a
long period of time. The Milwaukee Brewers did something like this for three
full months a couple of years ago. They weren't as good as they looked in
the first half of the season. All the games after the All-Star break seemed
like one long losing streak to them.
*Look for "momentum" on road trips or homestands. I'm not really a big fan
of "momentum" in sports. I think it's an illusion more often than not. But
the players themselves actually believe in that stuff. If you get a team
stringing together victories on a road trip or homestand, they'll often keep
the mojo going until it ends. Conversely, teams going through the doldrums
often need a change of sites to get things back on track. History shows that
many winning and losing streaks correspond EXACTLY to the duration of road
trips or homestands.
Bottom line: RIDE STREAKS! But don't try to ride every possible streak that
looks like it's about to bust loose. Look for logical streaks that have a
reason for beginning and have a reason for continuing. These are the ones
you can ride for four or five winners before dropping a game.
Whatever you do, don't keep asking streaks to end. Even if it works at
first, the time it doesn't work could very well bust your bankroll. I've
seen it time and time again here in Las Vegas.
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