MLB In-Season Turnaround
Over the years I've found a great indicator for 'turnarounds' in MLB
performance is a team's record in one-run games.
Statistical studies have shown that a team's record in close games is
largely a reflection of good fortune. Game broadcasters like to tell you
that certain teams have a knack for finding a way to win. The teams with
great records LOVE to tell you that they've got a special something which
gives them the edge. But over time, teams on either end of the spectrum
regress back to near .500 in this fickle category.
There's no 'special something' that helps great teams win close games.
There's no choke factor that causes lesser teams to lose close games. The
studies have basically shown that good teams overall are a little over .500
in close games and bad teams overall are a little under .500 in close games.
What separates teams is their performances in blowouts not in close games.
Let's take a look at some extremes that have been in place so far through
the first two months of the season. All the records discussed in this piece
are through the games of Friday night June 2.
STRONG ONE-RUN RECORDS:
Minnesota: 9-3
NY Mets: 16-6
Cincinnati: 12-5
Houston: 11-5
Baltimore: 10-5
Detroit: 10-5
As a general rule, teams with strong one-run records aren't as good as
everyone thinks they are. They might still be pretty good. But their full
season record is misleading because they've been catching breaks in close
games. The listing above has an interesting mix.
We've got a team that's perceived as having turned themselves into a league
power (the Mets),
but their record is only 16-14 in games that have been decided by 2 or more
runs.
The Reds are perceived as an up-and-comer, but their record is just 18-19
outside the close games. Although that's still an improvement for this
franchise!
We have last year's NL champions, the Astros, who are a very poor 16-23 in
games decided by 2 or more runs.
We've got two AL teams who are both worse than people realize (the Orioles
and Twins), having compiled records of 15-25 and 16-26 in games that weren't
coin flips at the very end.
What about Detroit? Well, that 10-5 record in close games is a bit of good
fortune. But they're still 26-14 in games that weren't nailbiters. This is
very strong evidence that the Tigers are likely to be a contender for quite
some time. Just don't expect them to continue their current 106 win pace!
As a composite, all of these teams should be expected to "underachieve"
their new perception in the coming weeks. Everyone outside of Detroit just
isn't as good as everyone thinks.
On the other end of the spectrum, we've got teams with bad one-run records
who may offer value for wagerers in the coming weeks:
BAD ONE-RUN RECORDS:
Seattle: 3-9
Washington: 3-9
Pittsburgh: 6-15
Florida: 4-11
Chicago Cubs: 4-10
Oakland: 8-14
This sextet breaks into two even groups. Those who are basically .500 teams
overall who are struggling in close games and bad teams who will be set to
turn things around quickly if they ever get their acts together.
.500 TYPE TEAMS:
Oakland: 17-16 outside of one-run games
Seattle: 21-23 outside of one-run games
Washington: 20-23 outside of one-run games
You might have Seattle and Washington on your go-against list because of the
full season standings. Be aware that they're not quite as bad as they seem
CERTIFIED LOSERS
Cubs: 17-22 outside of one-run games
Pittsburgh: 14-20 outside of one-run games
Florida: 14-23 outside of one-run games
We're not going to suggest that you need to start pounding these guys. We
just want you to be aware that what would have been poor seasons anyway have
turned into DISASTERS because of poor performances in one-run games. All
three of these teams are likely to start catching a few breaks. You saw that
for the Pirates and Marlins in particular on their most recent home stands.
Be very careful laying huge odds against this threesome. Even though they're
struggling, they're not as bad as you think. Be sure you've got real edges
when going against them, don't just knee-jerk because they're in last place
and you think last place teams get killed every day.
I hope this brief study of one-run records helps you pick more winners in
the coming weeks. Be sure to monitor this stat all through the season. The
"lucky" group is going to fall back to earth and the "unlucky" group is
going to start picking up some upset victories. Winning handicappers are
those who can see this coming before it happens!
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