When To List Starting Pitchers
There's been some debate in the cyber world recently about the value of
listing pitchers when making major league baseball selections.
Some say you should always list the pitcher when making a selection because
you don't want to risk getting stuck with a "rag arm" if your guy gets
scratched. Others say you'll have plenty of time in the computer-era to make
a decision on the new pitcher and new adjusted price anyway, so why bother
even risking an "action" play?
The scope of the debate was such that it seemed that many bettors believe
that baseball selections are based on pitching and little else!
The reasons against playing action seemed to miss out on the fact that you
can like a play regardless of the pitchers.
This got me to thinking that many of you may be in the same boat. You base
your selections on the pitchers at the expense of other edges that may also
be in play. Maybe you're not thinking about the offenses; about losing
streaks and winning streaks; or about what part of the rotation you're
dealing with for your team and the opponent.
For many, it's this simple:
*That guy's a winner, so I'm going to bet on him.
*That guy's a loser, so I'm going to the other way.
If this is the game plan, then by all means list the pitcher. You definitely
don't want a late scratch in those instances. You absolutely have to list
the pitchers you like and the ones you're specifically going against to make
the most of that strategy. No argument there.
But, what if you've stepped back a little bit to look at the big picture.
You noticed early on that the Kansas City Royals are much worse than
everyone realizes, particularly on the road. You decided in the first few
weeks that you were just going to go against them every time they played on
the road until they won three games in a row.
Do the pitchers matter then?
At the time of this writing, the Royals are 2-20 on the road this year. The
last thing somebody playing this strategy would want is to have a game
scratched because of a late pitching change when you were out of pocket and
had no time to get down at the adjusted price.
What if you're taking a team with a strong offense because they're likely to
score in today's ballpark and weather conditions regardless of who they're
facing? Does a pitching change matter then? Heck, it's probably going to
help you if anything. If a worse guy gets the nod, your team may just score
more runs and win by a bigger margin. An adjusted price won't scare you off
in that instance.
Monitoring this debate made it clear that many folks don't look at big
picture issues very much, and don't spend that much time thinking about how
well or poorly offenses are suited to many environments. It can be an easy
trap to fall into.
Here are my guidelines for determining whether or not you should list the
pitchers or just play action. This is all based on the assumption that you
don't live on your computer constantly monitoring line moves. Those who do
monitor all day can almost always just list the pitchers because they'll
have time to adjust on the fly if need be:
GUIDELINES:
*If your selection is strongly based on the pitcher you're taking, or the
pitcher you're going against then always list the key pitcher.
*If your selection is just "mostly" based on those factors, same thing. You
probably don't feel strongly enough about the other elements of the play to
back a replacement pitcher. And if you're going against a guy who's really
been horrible (say Jose Lima or Josh Towers so far), you definitely don't
want big money going against a replacement who's probably much better.
*If your selection is based on riding out a streak or playing a big picture
strategy, just use the "action" option. A late pitching change is irrelevant
because you're looking at an overall strategy rather than a one-game
matchup.
*If your selection is based on how an offense matches up against a generic
opposing pitcher in a great scoring environment, you should probably use
"action" to protect your play. You don't want the selection scratched while
you were out of pocket only to find out that your team won 8-4 against the
replacement.
Try to do the smart thing every time you get down on a baseball selection.
And, be sure you're going beyond the basics of just handicapping the
starting pitchers. Consistent winners are able to find edges beyond the
mound.
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