Digging Deeper
I'm always amazed when talking with a few of the baseball wagerers here in
Las Vegas about how little they sometimes know about pitching.
They'll see a guy that's got a 4-0 won-loss record and they figure he's a
can't miss play as a dog. They see a guy with a great ERA and don't make any
adjustment if he's moving from a pitcher's park to a hitter's park. Last
year they thought all Colorado pitchers were horrible, and all Washington
pitchers were great.
Today I wanted to give you some examples of situations that are in play
every night of the week that you may be missing out on.
*A fly ball pitcher may be great when the wind is blowing in, but awful when
the wind is blowing out. Many folks laying down their hard-earned money on a
side don't know who the fly ball pitchers are, and don't check the weather.
*A pitcher may be great on his home field, but inconsistent in other
ballparks. His full season numbers won't be telling you that you should be
taking him at home but going against him on the road.
*A pitcher may be great the first time he sees a lineup, but mortal the next
time. With the unbalanced schedules in divisional play, this is very
important to know because offenses will see the same starting pitchers over
and over again.
*Some pitchers have mastered certain opposing lineups within their
divisions. They had great numbers against them last year, and have already
started off strong this year. If a guy pitches 1.00 to 1.50 runs lower than
his normal ERA against teams he sees all the time, you should know about it!
*A pitcher may have been dealing with mechanical problems in his most recent
starts, then figured things out in a bullpen session. You'll be going
against him based on his recent numbers just as he's ready to start mowing
people down. You've got to read the newswires and watch a lot of game
telecasts to catch information like this.
*A pitcher may be dealing with an injury that's keeping him from pitching to
past levels. You often see guys post some very poor outings just before they
go on the disabled list. Do your best to monitor reports or rumors about
injuries. They often lead to great "go against" situations.
*Some offenses have big troubles versus lefthanded starters, while others
light them up. In these situations it doesn't really matter what the
pitcher's past or recent numbers are. Even mediocre lefthanders will shut
down teams who can't hit southpaws. Even great lefties have been known to
get rocked by power teams who kill lefties. Be sure you find stat sites on
the internet that have lefty/righty breakdowns for offenses.
*Some offenses strike out a lot, and therefore get completely shut down by
high strikeout pitchers. Nolan Ryan was always a no-hit or one-hit threat
against teams like that because they just couldn't touch him. Nothing's
changed now. The top strikeout pitchers are ideal to take against offenses
who strike out a lot.
*Some offenses are patient and draw a lot of walks. They match up very well
against young pitchers who are still trying to learn how to control their
stuff. Those offenses get guys on base, and force the starter to reach his
pitch limit early in the game. I'm stunned by how many bettors don't pay
attention to bases on balls from both the pitching and hitting perspectives.
*Early in the season, one bad outing can really mess up the ERA in the "last
3 starts" category and overall. When handicapping, look at the full listing
of appearances to see how common quality starts are. A guy with an ERA of
6.50 the last three starts and 5.00 for the season could actually be about
67% to throw a quality start. Going against him is only right a third of the
time despite what his ERA may be suggesting.
If all of this stuff is news to you, then you've been handicapping
blindfolded! If you want to make money in baseball, you've either got to
study this information or find a handicapper who does and invest in his
plays. You can't possibly beat the Vegas numbers by relying on the basics
that are in your daily newspaper. But you can make BIG MONEY by taking
advantage of soft spots in the lines that haven't accounted for the
situations listed above.
Plenty of winners are out there waiting for you to find them, if you're
willing to invest the work!
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