Regular Season Domination? Don't Pay Much Attention
With the NBA playoffs commencing, many sports analysts will examine how the teams faired against each other during the regular season. This provides interesting analysis that can give you insight into little details. For example, if Tim Duncan averaged 40 ppg in four regular season contests against Sacramento, that could be explained by the lack of a quality defensive center, which may suggest any center could have big games in the postseason against them.
However, overall don't get carried away with regular season meetings. The playoffs are a whole new ball game. Coaches often rest players at certain points during the season, such as a back-to-back spot. Or sometimes players miss time with injuries, such as LeBron James late in the season, or even suspensions, like Ron Artest for the first half of the year. How the Kings played in the first half of the season against San Antonio or Dallas isn't that important because they didn't have Artest. The Kings are a great example as they have been a totally different team in the second half of the season than the first.
Coaches also come up with new strategies and wrinkles, and teams almost always turn up the defensive intensity during the playoffs, which makes drawing conclusions based on regular season encounters very difficult. For example, a few years ago the young Sacramento Kings absolutely hammered the Utah Jazz in four regular season meetings, going 4-0 straight up and against the spread. They won at Utah by scores of 114-90 and 117-109 and at Sacramento by frightening scores of 113-80 and 107-81. Talk about complete domination!
The conclusion was that the tired old men of Utah had trouble keeping up with the young, deep Sacramento bench and, therefore, the playoff series would be a quick sweep. It all made sense, except no one told the proud old Jazz, who proceeded to give the Kings a scare in the playoffs going 3-1 ATS. The Kings won the series in four games, losing Game 2 at home 93-86 as an 11-point favorite, and winning the other three games by 3, 3 and 5 points. All four games went UNDER the total, which is common in the postseason where teams often play all-out defense for 48 minutes.
A year later the 76ers went 3-1 SU/ATS during the regular season against the Celtics, even winning both games at Boston as a dog each time. Yet, come playoff time the Celtics won the series in five games, including a 120-87 rout in the Game 5 clincher.
The same thing happened that season between New Jersey and Indiana: The Nets went 3-1 Su/ATS against Indiana during the regular season, even winning 91-82 at Indiana as a +4 dog, yet the playoff series went the full five games with New Jersey winning Game 5 in overtime. So take each game for its own merit and don't get carried away if one team dominates another during the season. They don't call the playoffs .5?The Second Season.5? for nothing!
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