Football Coaching Philosophies
There are many factors to examine when studying football totals. Defensive and offensive statistics need to be examined, of course. Some of the questions a good handicapper asks are: Is there speed in the defensive secondary? Does a club have a one-dimensional offense? Do they prefer a powerful running game or wide-open passing attacks? What kind of weather conditions will affect this game? Is the game on grass or artificial turf?
Another area that is often correlated to totals is coaching philosophy. Coaches build their team's styles around the personnel on the field. The Ravens, for example, have had an abundance of defensive talent the last six years with limited offense talent. That imbalance is not necessarily a bad thing, as they hoisted the Lombardi Trophy five years ago, with a conservative, predictable run-oriented offense and a sensational defense. Not much has changed, has it? Baltimore recently had the No. 2 ranked defense and the 21st ranked offense (second worst in scoring). So what has that formula produced? A 4-1 start "under" the total. The Ravens are also 16-9 "under" the total their last 25 games going back to 2003. During their Super Bowl season, Baltimore was 13-7 "under" the total.
Former coaches such as Jimmy Johnson and Bill Walsh had philosophies that were markedly different. They were more like gunslingers in the old west, ready to score a touchdown on every single play. Rams' coach Mike Martz has an ailment that recently sidelined him, but his philosophy is similar, with a wide-open attack, though little attention to defense. The Rams started 5-1 "over" the total this season with the No. 4 ranked offense. Unfortunately, the St. Louis defense looks as bad as last season ranking 25th. This combination of poor defense and a strong passing game is a formula for "overs." Going back their last 36 games, the Rams are 24-12 "over" the total.
The Kansas City Chiefs haven't quite got their offense going yet, but notice their supposedly "new and improved" defense, upgraded with several trades and free agents, was third-worst in the NFL after five games. The last few years this team has fit the "great offense, poor defense" model with offensive stars such as QB Trent Green, RB Priest Holmes and TE Tony Gonzalez. The defense was 31st overall last year and first in total offense. The Chiefs went 10-6 "over" the total in both 2003 and 2004.
The Patriots have had an aggressive offense the last few years, as well, developed by former offensive coordinator Charlie Weis. The philosophy is still the same with New England ranking No. 5 in total offense. However, combined with some defensive injuries and surprising deficiencies (27 ppg allowed), the Patriots are 5-0-1 "over" the total in 2005. Notice that Notre Dame began this season 4-2 "over" the total. After averaging 24 points per game in 2004 under Tyrone Willingham, the new-look Irish spread attack under Weis is averaging 36 per game.
Conversely, some coaches prefer a conservative, ball control game plan. Tampa Bay has the No. 1 defense and a new-found running game behind rookie Cadillac Williams. The Bucs were 11-5 "under" the total last season and 5-1 "under" this year. Lovie Smith, too, has rebuilt the Bears defense first and is stuck with a rookie QB in Kyle Orton. Chicago was 10-6 "under" in 2004, Smith's first with the Bears, and began 4-1 "under" this season with the No. 3 ranked defense.
When teams with similar philosophies or strengths and weaknesses clash, the results with respect to totals can be unsurprising. When the Jets and Ravens clashed in Week 4, neither team passed for more than 145 yards in a game that sailed way "under" as Baltimore won 13-3. When the Bears and Redskins met in the opener, the defenses dominated in a 9-7 Washington victory.
Last week on Monday night, the Rams finally tested the Colts defense by aggressively scoring 17 early points. Peyton Manning and the Colts were forced to go on the offensive attack, and the game sailed "over" the total by 22 points in a 45-28 Colts win. Coaches construct their game plans around the talent on the field, of course, but they also try and stamp their philosophy on the team, something to keep in mind when examining football totals.
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