Scheduling, Focus and Sandwiches

Monday, September 15, 2008
By Jim Feist

College and pro football offers a variety of great match-ups every weekend. A good handicapper, though, doesn't just look at individual and team match-ups. There are other factors surrounding a game that can be equally important to identifying a winning spread cover.

For instance, the first week of this college football season, the Tennessee Volunteers were a TD road favorite at UCLA. They were chalk largely because the Vols returned a lot of personnel, while UCLA had a new head coach, offensive coordinator and had lost 2 QBs already, giving the starting job to Kevin Craft, who was at Mount San Antonio Community College a year ago. However, despite 4 interceptions in the first half, UCLA still rallied to force OT and win as a big home dog.

What was overlooked by many in the betting public was that Tennessee also had a new offensive coordinator as well as a new starting QB. They had lost QB Erik Ainge, a four-year starter, from their 2007 team. That's a significant loss at the most important position on the gridiron. Throw in the fact that is was a 3,000 mile road trip for Tennessee, changing three time zones, and it was a very difficult opening scheduling spot.

Contrast that game with how Tennessee opened two years ago. The Vols were a home dog to No. 9 Cal. It was an interesting match-up of successful coaches and recent powerhouse programs. It also turned out to be a completely one-sided game as Tennessee jumped to a 35-0 lead on the way to a 35-18 victory.

There was far more to the game than individual match-ups and two big-name coaches trying to out-duel each other. The Volunteers were off a losing season, one where they missed a bowl game for the first time since 1988. The 2005 Volunteers struggled to beat Memphis and UAB, got blown out by Notre Dame, and lost to South Carolina and Vanderbilt. In fact, they were 0-6 against the spread at home! Players and coaches were all talking about bringing Tennessee football back to where it belonged, which meant a winning season.

Tennessee dominated Cal, with an edge in total yards 514-336, and an edge in rushing 216-64. Individual match-ups for a game like this were skewed, in a sense, because of the emotional energy and focus that a team like Tennessee put into that game. It was a game where one team gave a super all-out effort. This doesn't happen all the time, of course, as various circumstances can influence a team's performance. Even the best teams in pro and college football don't always have 100 percent focus.

Staying with Tennessee again, what happened AFTER that 2006 opener? The Vols were a 20-point home favorite over Air Force, yet struggled mightily in a 31-30 victory. Several things happened. One is that Tennessee was on a high from that emotional opening day win. Two, the team had put so much focus on beating Cal that it left little time to prepare for Air Force's unique option offense, which is tough to defend even for talented defenses.

Three, Tennessee had a more important game on deck the next week against rival Florida, their SEC opener, making the Air Force game a difficult "sandwich" spot. All of these are aspects of handicapping that can give bettors a key edge: Being able to identify teams that are completely focused, and ones that might only be able to give 70 percent or less effort.

Scheduling can be a significant handicapping angle. A few years ago this was evident with the Miami Hurricanes. The Hurricanes had ACC games against Georgia Tech and NC State sandwiched around a Thursday night battle against Louisville of Conference USA. Look what the Miami players were saying the day before that game: "Louisville is a good team," said then Miami CB Andre Rolle. "But we go in there expecting to shut people out. We're trying to shoot for a national title." When told that the Cardinals felt they were ripe for the upset, Rolle said, "They can think what they want. Personally, I don't think that's going to be possible."

Wow! You're not supposed to give fodder for the enemy like that. I wonder what he thought a few days later when Louisville led 24-7 at the half as a 9-point underdog. Notice that before the game Cardinal WR J.R. Russell had said, "We look at the game as life or death. It's very important." Miami appeared not to have given as much attention to this non-conference sandwich game as the visitor.

Other times a team can be so focused for a big game that they are spent emotionally for the next contest, such as Tennessee against Air Force, or Ohio State struggling against Ohio two weeks ago, one week before the showdown with USC. National TV games, especially for smaller schools that rarely get on TV, can be a big deal, which helps players give an extra motivated effort. Studying individual game match-ups are essential, but remember that other factors equally important can surround a game, including look-ahead spots, sandwich games, and factors that can influence a team's focus.