Monday, August 31, 2009
By Jim Feist
2009 Big 12 (North) Preview
The college football season is fast approaching, the best time of the sports calendar. In order to make accurate college football predictions from week to week, one needs to delve deep into all the offseason changes and additions, not only with players but the coaching staffs. Here is my look at what to anticipate for the upcoming Big 12 football season.
Kansas
The Jayhawks won college basketball's 2007 national title and the football team is off a thrilling 12-1 SU, 11-1 ATS 2007 campaign and 8-5 SU, 7-5 ATS last season. 2007 Coach of the Year seventh-year head coach Mark Mangino is fortunate to have senior quarterback Todd Reesing back. He had a terrific sophomore campaign with 33 TDs, 7 INTs and 3,486 yards, and last year had 32 TDs, 13 picks and 3,888 yards. With him behind center, the Jayhawks should be explosive again, after a 2008 campaign where they averaged 32.7 points, 129 yards rushing and 302 passing. 8 starters are back on offense, 7 on 'D'.
Senior WR Kerry Meier (1,045 yards) is the second-leading returnee in the country in receptions per game with his 7.46 catches per game last year. Junior WR Dezmon Briscoe is second among returnees in receiving yards per game at 108.23, off a sophomore season with 92 catches for 1,407 yards, 15 TDs. Briscoe trails only Oklahoma State's Dez Bryant, who averaged 113.85 yards per contest in 2008. QB Todd Reesing is the fourth-leading returnee in passing yards per game at 299.08. Reesing is also fifth among active players for 2009 in career yards per game (261.3) and career touchdown passes (68).
The wide receiving duo of Dezmon Briscoe and Kerry Meier should be one of the most potent in the nation after the two combined for an incredible 2008 season. One of only two sets of wide receivers in the country last year to both have at least 90 receptions; One of only five sets of wide receivers in the country last year to both have at least 1,000 yards; Their combined 189 receptions were tied for third in the nation for a pair of teammates last year; Their combined 2,452 receiving yards were third in the nation for a pair of teammates. Rising junior WR Johnathan Wilson helps form a dangerous receiving trio. Who wants to defend that?
The Jayhawks also have senior RB Jake Sharp (821 yards, 5.6 ypc; 860 yards, 4.6 ypc the last two seasons). Sharp was eighth in rushing (66.2), but third in Big 12 games (88.8), and was a receiving threat out of the backfield as well with 25 catches for 283 yards. Senior running back Angus Quigley (309 yards) was productive, but he has moved to linebacker. Four of KU's five losses in 2008 were to ranked teams, including three games to teams ranked in the top eight. Kansas has won 23 of its last 30 games dating back to October of 2006. Kansas has also won 16 of its last 18 non-conference games, including two bowl victories, and 14 of its last 16 home games. This offense looks loaded.
On the other side of the line, second-year defensive coordinator Clint Bowen lost some talent to a 'D' that allowed 29.5 ppg, going 4-4 in the Big 12. They lost their No. 1 (James Holt), 3 (Mike Rivera) and 4 (Joe Mortensen) tacklers. They weren't just productive veterans, but very big. The projected replacements are a little quicker, more athletic, but smaller. There could be problems against power running teams. Senior linebacker Jake Schermer is solid and they like senior linebacker Arist Wright. S Darrell Stuckey (first team), DT Caleb Blakesley, DE Jake Laptad add depth and experience. Stuckey was 13th overall and fourth among defensive backs in the Big 12 Conference in tackles (7.5), Blakesley was a solid defensive tackle, while Laptad was ninth in sacks (0.54).
Kansas played 16 freshmen in 2008, including five regular starters in DT Richard Johnson, TE Tim Biere, CB Daymond Patterson, OT Jeff Spikes and OT Jeremiah Hatch. Kansas is 23-6 SU, 16-10 ATS at home the last four seasons, and on the road the team is 8-11 SU, 12-7 ATS. The Jayhawks have an easy schedule and should start 5-0, plus its a down year for their top Big 12 North competition, so they should win this division. Totals players might like the great offense and suspect defense for overs.
Missouri
Mizzou was explosive offensively again last season, averaging 42 points, 157 yards rushing and 340 yards passing. But they lost everyone to the NFL, including QB Chase Daniel, Chase Coffman and WR Jeremy Maclin. Head Coach Gary Pinkel's squad is coming off 12-2 SU, 11-2 ATS and 10-4 SU, 4-7-1 ATS seasons and its fifth bowl game appearance in the last six seasons, including a 30-23 win over Northwestern in the Alamo Bowl. Offensive coordinator Dave Christensen is gone, and they even lost a good backup QB in Chase Patton, so it all starts with who will be behind center?
Sophomore QBs 6-foot-5 Blaine Gabbert and 6-3 Jimmy Costello will battle it out, with Gabbert the likely choice. Gabbert threw for 43 yards last season, plus top recruits Blaine Dalton and Ashton Glaser are in the mix. Dalton has been suspended after he was arrested after a traffic stop near the Missouri campus in May. Columbia police stopped a vehicle driven by Dalton and found 10 Hydrocodone pills, a prescription painkiller, and alcohol. New offensive coordinator Dave Yost is expected to tweak the spread offense a bit and use more power running. The focus will be on junior RB Derrick Washington, who ran for 1,036 yards, 5.9 yards per carry as a sophomore.
They love to use wideouts for end-arounds, so look for more from senior WR Jared Perry (567 receiving yards) and 6-foot-5 senior WR Danario Alexander (329). A guy to watch is sophomore RB Drew Temple, whose brother Tony led the Tigers in rushing in 2007. Pinkel said, "I think the offensive line is the obvious place to start. I don't want to overuse the word 'concern,' because you go through this all of the time with graduation. I think there are some good athletes there. Bottom line is, the reason you win is because you do the right things up front, and that's our challenge this spring to get that done as a staff."
Mizzou was terrible on defense, giving up 27.5 ppg, and lost future NFL starting tackle in Ziggy Hood in the first round. Three starters are gone off the defensive front and the secondary needs three new starters, too. At least LB Sean Weatherspoon is back to anchor a good linebacking corps. The secondary has senior CB Hardy Ricks. Pinkel has experimented with some no-huddle and spread formation tactics used by Urban Meyer at Utah and Florida, so the offense should score plenty again. Mizzou is 14-6 over the total the last two years. Missouri plays its home games on turf, and note they are 21-31 SU their last 52 road games. Missouri is 30-11 SU, 20-16 ATS its last 41 home games. They should go bowling, but won't be as dominant offensively as 2008. An Under the total team? Something to keep in mind with college football predictions this fall.
Colorado
Two years ago we wrote that Colorado really wasn't as bad as that 2-10 SU, 3-8 ATS 2006 season might suggest. They took a major step forward in 2007 under coach Dan Hawkins, going 6-6 Su/ATS before losing to Alabama in a bowl, 30-24. Along the way they shocked then-No. 3 Oklahoma, 27-24 as a 23-point dog, one of the many shocking upsets in 2007. It was the Buffaloes' first win over a top-five team since Dec. 1, 2001, when they bested Texas in the Big 12 title game. Last season injuries derailed what should have been a good offense, going 5-7 SU, 4-7 ATS. Hawkins (the former Boise State coach) begins his fouth season. Hawkins ran wide-open offenses at Boise, and the Buffaloes improved in 2007 averaging 29 points, 165 yards rushing and 221 yards passing in Big 12 play.
But injuries slowed things down in 2008, averaging 20 points and 194 yards passing. The Buffs were last in the league in scoring, yards, and passing efficiency and were 11th in passing and 10th in rushing. Eight starters return on offense. His son, junior QB Cody Hawkins, got the offense moving as a freshman, passing for 3,015 yards, 22 TDs and 17 INTs. Last season Hawkins had 17 TDs, 10 picks and 1,892 yards, while splitting time with freshman QB Tyler Hansen (1 TDs, 4 picks). Sophomore quarterback Tyler Hansen broke his right thumb on his throwing hand in the Buffaloes' annual spring game. Hansen was injured when he slammed his thumb into the helmet of defensive end Marquez Herrod. He should be ready to go for the fall, but Hawkins is likely to get more snaps in Colorado's West Coast attack.
Getting guards Max Tuioti-Mariner and Mike Iltis back from knee injures will help, and overall age and experience will also be a plus. The Buffs had to throw several players to the wolves and it showed with no pass protection and weak ground game. 5-foot-6 sophomore RB Rodney Stewart (622 yards) led the team as a freshman and ran for a strong 4.7 yards per carry. They added one of the nation's top running backs in the 2008 recruiting class in Darrell Scott, who stumbled for just 343 yards, 3.9 ypc, as a freshman behind the banged-up offensive line. Year 2 for the kid should be much better.
Junior RB Demetrius Sumler (335, 251 yards the last two years) and Kevin Moyd add depth. 4 targets caught over 200 yards as they spread the ball around. They return junior WR Scotty McKnight (555, 519 yards the last two years) and junior WR Josh Smith (451, 387 yards in 2007 and 2008), who led the team as freshmen. Senior TE Riar Geer and senior tight end Patrick Devenny add depth and experience. Tailbacks Kevin Moyd and Corey Nabors started attending receiver meetings and are listed at both positions.
The Buffs played poorly on defense last season, giving up 29 ppg. That was similar to 2007 when, despite smacking Oklahoma around, they allowed 34 points, 138 yards rushing and 302 yards passing per game in Big 12 play. Defensively, senior linebacker Bryan Stengel and sophomore linebacker Brandon Gouin lead a good LB corps. Defensive back is a position where young players will be expected to fill a void this season, with sophomore Anthony Perkins. Because of the weak offense, Colorado was 6-3-1 under the total, but remember when they were healthy on offense in 2007 they went 8-5 over the total with a strong offense and a weak secondary. A good season is possible, though note they are 2-13 SU, 3-12 ATS on the road under Hawkins and 4-17 SU/ATS on the road the last four years. Road games at West Virginia, Texas, K-State and Oklahoma State will be tough. Don't underestimate Colorado: The Buffaloes are 33-30 against the spread as a dog since 1998.
Nebraska
The offensive experiment with Bill Callahan didn't quite work out, so the Huskers turned the program over to former defensive coordinator Bo Pelini. Nebraska has been a beast offensively, even under Pelini, but they lose QB Joe Ganz and all the top playmakers, so this is really the first real look at the Pelini offense. The quarterback situation is a bit muddled with sophomore QB Patrick Witt trying to prove he's ready for the big time, while QB Kody Spanos is also in the mix. It's hard to see the Husker approaching last season's offensive numbers under Gamz: 36 points, with 173 yards rushing and 284 yards passing per game.
The ground game has junior RB Roy Helu Jr (803 yards), a sizzling 6.4 yards per carry, and junior RB Quentin Castille (467 yards). The receiving issue is in good shape with 6-foot-4 senior Menelik Holt (355 yards), junior WR Niles Paul (214), senior WR Chris Brooks, Will Henry, 6-4 junior tight end Mike McNeil (442 yards) and last year's super-recruit Antonio Bell. The offense has talent, but it will all hinge on the development of the new QBs.
The defense allowed 29 ppg and has a ways to go. Pelini won a national title in 2007 with LSU as DC; Pelini is the head coach here and his brother Carl Pelini is the defensive coordinator. Oklahoma won a national title in 2000 with the Stoops' brothers in similar positions. The defense was a disaster in 2007 and got the Pelini's full attention. Pelini said he was happy with the way defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh was taking charge of the defense. Nebraska senior defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh is one of 42 players who have been named to the 2009 Lott Trophy Watch List. Suh will anchor the 2009 Nebraska defense after a dominant performance in 2008.
Suh earned first-team All-Big 12 honors after leading Nebraska with 76 tackles, including 7.5 sacks and 19 tackles for loss. He was the first interior defensive lineman to lead Nebraska in tackles since 1973, and he also had two interception returns for touchdowns. Nebraska wasn't a good road team under Callahan, at 7-13 SU/ATS the previous three years, but was 2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS under Pelini. Early road trips to Virginia Tech and Missouri will tell a lot about whether the defense is improved or not and whether they have found a capable QB.
Kansas State
Kansas State went 7-6, 5-7 and 5-7 under Head Coach Ron Prince, so he got fired. They lost QB Josh Freeman to the NFL, so new/old coach Bill Snyder has a big job to do. At least he knows how to turn a disaster into a national powerhouse, though that will take time (if it happens at all). After all, Snyder's last few K-State teams weren't very good. Freeman got all the headlines and managed a very strong offense, but let's not overlook a defense that was horrible, allowing 35.8 ppg. 7 starters return on offense, 8 on defense.
There is hope -- and a lot of rebuilding to do. The tradition that head coach Bill Snyder established between 1989-2005 at Kansas State will continue beginning in 2009 as the architect of the greatest turnaround in college football history has come out of retirement and will once again stroll the sidelines of the stadium that now bears his own name. Snyder gives the Wildcats instant credibility with his 136 career wins, 11 bowl games, four Big 12 North Division Titles and 2003 Big 12 Championship.
The early favorite with the most game experience would appear to be junior QB Carson Coffman. Coffman saw action in six of the Wildcats' games last season, completed 61-percent of his passes for a total of 282 yards and a touchdown. Coffman will battle with current redshirt freshmen 6-5 Collin Klein and 6-4 Joseph Kassanavoid as well as junior college transfer Daniel Thomas. Thomas is considered to be a dual-threat quarterback, something that Snyder has been known to utilize in the past. As a sophomore at Northwest Mississippi Junior College, he rushed for 562 yards and six touchdowns while completing 24-of-51 passes for 450 yards and two touchdowns.
All three of last year's starting running backs return. Lamark Brown made the transition from wide receiver last year, and became a six-game starter for the Wildcats and led the team with 412 yards and five touchdowns. Sophomore Logan Dold (333 yards), senior Keithen Valentine, Jarell Childs, Frank Delarue and Dee Bell give the Cats some added depth. The wide receiver position will continue to be a bright spot for the Wildcats as a trio of seniors will lead the team at the position. Senior Brandon Banks emerged as one of the speediest receivers in the nation last year, leading the Wildcats in receptions (67), receiving yards (1,049), and receiving touchdowns (9). He teams with seniors Attrail Snipes and Aubrey Quarles (407 yds) to give the Wildcats a solid nucleus of wideouts.
Kansas State's defense will have a new look with new co-defensive coordinators Vic Koenning and Chris Cosh. Sophomore DE Brandon Harold saw time at both defensive end and defensive tackle in 2008, and was honored at the end of last season with his selection as a first team freshman All-American by College Football News. The defensive end totaled 45 tackles. Another returning starter up front is senior defensive end Eric Childs, who started 11 games while seeing action in all 12 games. Childs tallied 52 tackles, 6.5 for loss, with 2.5 sacks last season. K-State returns two regular starters at linebacker from last season in Ulla Pomele and Alex Hrebec. Kansas State is a poor 5-19 SU/9-15 ATS on the road the last five seasons. The schedule finds a stretch of 4 road games in 5 weeks beginning on September 12. This looks like a rebuilding year. By the way, they are on a 6-1 run over the total because of that defense.
Iowa State
The Cyclones struggled in 2007 and 2008 at 3-9 SU/5-5 ATS and 2-10 SU, 5-6 ATS under Gene Chizik. And for some reason, he got promoted -- to another school! Auburn hired him away in a strange move. Chizik has a terrific resume as a defensive coordinator, being an assistant head coach and defensive coordinator on Texas' 2005 national championship team and before that, he spent three years as defensive coordinator at Auburn earning the Frank Broyles Award as the nation's top assistant coach. Regardless, he's gone and the new coach is Paul Rhoads, the former Auburn defensive coordinator. Rhoads, who was raised in Ankeny, Iowa, coordinated the Pitt defense for eight seasons (2000-07) before moving to Auburn in the same role last season.
He inherits a young team that had a decent offense but an awful defense, allowing 35.8 ppg. Iowa State averaged 25.3 points, 138 yards rushing and 248 yards passing on offense. Senior QB Austen Arnaud (2,792 yards, 15 TDs, 10 picks) returns and is a fine runner, with 401 rushing yards, second on the team. Senior RB Alexander Robinson led in rushing in 2007 with 465 yards (3.9 ypc) and catching 23 passes for 167 yards; then last season added 703 yards, 4.6 ypc. The offensive line started three underclassmen and has decent potential going into the season after doing a decent job last year.
Sophomore WR Darius Darks (477 yards) impressed a freshman, while senior WR Houston Jones (384) adds depth and experience. The defense was awful and at least will be more experienced with seven starters returning highlighted by a decent linebacking corps. The new coach likes attacking, hard hitting safeties, but has a lot of new faces in the secondary. Kansas is 17-12 UNDER the total the last three seasons. Note that Iowa State is 4-27 SU/11-20 ATS on the road the last six seasons. They will be last in the Big 12 again.
2009 Big 12 (South) Preview
Oklahoma
Oklahoma is off a 12-2 SU, 10-3 ATS season with a powerhouse team, one that outscored opponents by a 54-24 average. Junior QB Sam Bradford decided to stay rather than be the first pick in the NFL draft, so hopes are high. Of concern, though, is an offensive line that has new looks and struggled in spring practice. Plus, they had a critical injury to receiver Corey Wilson after a car accident, with paralysis from the waist down which shocked the team. So the key is the offensive line and to replace the top wideouts.
Coach Bob Stoops has another terrific offense behind 6-foot-5 junior QB Sam Bradford, one that averaged 205 yards rushing and 356 passing. Bradford was spectacular as a redshirt freshman, with 3,121 yards, 69% completions, 36 TDs and only 8 INTs. Last season he had 50 TDs, 8 picks and 4,720 yards! Sophomore WR Ryan Broyles (687 yards) and 6-4 senior WR Adron Tennell are the only experienced wideouts back. Some great news is that senior TE Jermaine Gresham (950 yards, 14 TDs) is one of the nation's best tight ends. Young targets Jameel Owens and Dejuan Miller have good upside.
Stephen Good, the projected starter at right guard, struggled at times in the spring. They had a patchwork of blockers at times that obviously still has a lot of work to do. In the first half alone of one spring game, the offensive line gave up five quarterback sacks (of the touched-down variety) and two holding penalties. At least the ground game is loaded with junior RB DeMarco Murray (1,002 yards, 5.6 ypc), senior RB Chris Brown (1,220 yards, 5.6 ypc) and soph Mossis Madu. Keep an eye on sophomore running back Jermie Calhoun, a top prospect.
On defense, senior DT DeMarcus Granger anchors a solid line, though the usually strong linebacker corps has some new looks. The star of the 2008 recruiting class is potential stud defensive end R.J Washington. Strongside starting LB Keenan Clayton, a 2009 senior, battled a high ankle sprain in the spring. Middle linebacker Ryan Reynolds, another '09 senior, is still coming back from a torn ACL and didn't do anything in the spring. Middle linebacker Austin Box, another potential starter, is recovering from elbow surgery.
Oklahoma is 20-3 SU, 14-6 ATS at home the last three seasons. The schedule is easy, outside of a revenge game against Texas on October 17. Road games at Miami, Kansas, Nebraska and at Texas Tech ren't that tough, so running the table is a possibility, as is a national title-type season. A rematch with Florida, anyone? By the way, the Sooners are on an 8-1 run over the total.
Texas
Everyone remembers Oklahoma winning the Big 12 title game then losing to Florida in the national championship game. What they may forget is that Texas upset Oklahoma during the regular season, tied for first (7-1) in the Big 12 with the Sooners, then got jobbed as a committee chose Oklahoma over Texas to go to the Big 12 title game. That should add some motivation to a talented team, especially one with four-year starter QB Colt McCoy back. Mack Brown followed up a 2005 national championship season with a 10-3 "rebuilding" 2006 season, then another 10-3 SU, 9-4 ATS season in 2007 and 12-1 SU, 9-4 ATS in 2008. The Longhorns are loaded on offense once again, on a unit that averaged 44 points, 177 yards rushing and 299 passing. Texas is 45-7 SU, 35-16 ATS the last four seasons and 7-1 SU/8-0 ATS its last 8 as a dog!
Senior QB Colt McCoy had another strong season, with 3,8593 yards, 76% completions, 34 TDs and 8 picks. That was far better than 2007 when he had 3,303 yards, 65% completions, 22 TDs and 18 picks. He was outstanding as a freshman in 2006, passing for 2,570 yards, 29 TDs and 7 INTs while hitting 68% of his passes. McCoy is an excellent runner and ran for 561 yards, tops on the team. Texas is 12-7-2 over the total the last two years, which means the Longhorns are 30-14-2 OVER the total the last four seasons.
The running game usually is a staple at Texas, but has been a big disappointment, as McCoy led the team in rushing. Four starters are back on the offensive front, led by tackle Adam Ulatoski, and running backs sophomore Fozzy Whittaker (284 yards), junior RB Vondrell McGee (376), and soph Cody Johnson (338) are back. The top two wideouts are gone, so junior WR Brandon Collins (430 yards) will have to step up, along with young wide receivers everywhere in James Kirkendoll, Malcolm Williams and Dan Buckner.
Defensively, Texas was soft in 2007 allowing 28 ppg in Big 12 play and over 300 yards passing per conference tilt. That's why they brought in new (former Auburn) defensive coordinator Will Muschamp. He installed a more physical defense like ones he ran at LSU and Auburn, and they were much better, allowing 18.6 ppg. It starts with a strong LB corps with senior LB Roddrick Muckleroy and 6-4 senior Sergio Kindle. The secondary has plenty of experience with young CBs juninor Chykie Brown and senior Deon Beasley. The scheule isn't bad, outside of October road games back-to-back at Missouri and Oklahoma State. The October 17 battle with Oklahoma will be the next big test. The last eight seasons after playing the Sooners (5 losses), the Longhorns are 58-8 SU/36-23-2 ATS the rest of the season (9-2 SU, 8-6 ATS the last two years). They are a threat to be in the national title game.
Oklahoma State
The Cowboys (9-4 SU, 8-4 ATS) begin their fifth season under Head coach Mike Gundy and his electric offense. On offense they go with a no-huddle at times and dazzled with 41 points, 256 yards rushing and 233 passing per game! Oklahoma State finished sixth in the nation in total offense, was ninth in scoring, fifth in passing efficiency and eighth in rushing offense. Best off all, they get almost everyone back with eight starters returning. After starting 7-0, the Cowboys fell apart again, ending on a 2-4 SU/ATS run. Despite NFL-caliber talent, the defense often stinks and they can't win the big ones (another close loss to Texas, this time 28-24). That's the recent history the Cowboys want to change.
There are no concerns about the offense. Senior QB Zac Robinson is off a strong junior season with 3,064 yards, 65% completions, 25 TDs and 10 picks. As a sophomoore in 2007 he had 2,824 yards, 60% completions, 23 TDs and 9 picks. He's an electric runner, rushing for 847 and 562 yards the last two seasons, second and third most yards on the team. He teams with fast, 5-foot-8 senior RB Kendall Hunter (1,555 yards, 6.5 ypc), senior RB Keith Toston (686 yards, 6.7 ypc) and former JUCO transfer senior RB Beau Johnson (357). Speedy senior WR Dez Bryant (1,480 yards, 19 TDs) is a keeper, while 6-foot-5 junior WR Damian Davis (414) averaged 21 yards per catch as a sophomore. This group is outstanding, so there is plenty of pop in the offense.
The defense, though, has been more 'dud' than 'pop.' They allowed 27 points per game, and got torched by Texas Tech (56-20 defeat) and Oklahoma (61-41). Third year defensive coordinator Tim Beckman came over from Ohio State, where he had been coaching cornerbacks. Back in 2007 the defense gave up 33 points per game in Big 12 play and had meltdowns against Troy, Texas, Kansas and Oklahoma. The Cowboy defensive front was last in the league in sacks and didn’t do much to get into the backfield against the run. Both starting defensive ends, Ugo Chinasa and Derek Burton, are back.
The secondary has to replace three starters to a unit that struggled down the strech. Linebacker is deep with seniors Patrick Lavine and Chris Collins, who earned Freshmen All-America honors in 2006. They open at home against Georgia, an early big test. Yes, they are 17-14 over the total the last three years and look like an offensive machine in 2009.
Texas Tech
Mike Leach has quite a system in place, plugging in players, going without an offensive playbook, while his pass-happy attack just keeps churning along. They've averaged 8 wins per season for the past seven years and they're coming off an 11-2 season averaging 417 yards passing and 44.6 points per game. The school took care of Leach, locking him up, but now the coach has to do a load of rebuilding on both sides of the football for 2009.
Their high-flying offense has a new quarterback in junior QB Taylor Potts. He was a good recruit a few years ago and has been around long enough to know the system, throwing for 260 yards, 2 TDs and one pick last fall. WR Michael Crabtree is off to the NFL, so they will spread the ball around to a lot of players, with junior WR Detron Lewis (913 yards, second on the team) a budding star. Senior WR Edward Britton (577 yards) and junior WR Lyle Leong (206) add great depth on a team that doesn't use a tight end.
The running game is actually productive, using draws and screens, with junior RB Baron Batch (758 yards, 6.7 ypc), and he also caught 45 passes for 449 yards. Note that Texas Tech averaged 49 ppg at home where they went 7-0 SU, 2-4 ATS. Texas Tech is 37-6 SU, 25-14 ATS its last 43 home games. While the wide-open offense gets all the ink, this defense has been decent the last five years. Texas Tech allowed just 18.8 ppg in 2005, 25 ppg in 2006, 25.9 ppg in 2007 and 26.3 ppg last season. They also have a new look with second-year defensive coordinator Ruffin McNeill. Defensive tackle senior Richard Jones is strong, while University of Miami transfer Chris Perry, safety Brett Dewhurst and soph Ryan Haliburton add depth.
But Texas Tech defensive end McKinner Dixon was suspended by coach Mike Leach for not taking care of his academic responsibilities in the spring. Dixon led all returning Tech players with nine sacks and 11 tackles for losses last season on the Red Raiders' 11-2 team, which captured a share of the Big 12's South Division championship for the first time in school history. Texas Tech is 19-12-1 "over" the total the last three years. The schedule isn't bad, but they have a road game at Texas (revenge for the Longhorns) and road games at Nebraska and Oklahoma State. All in all, expect another 8-9 wins and a bowl.
Baylor
Baylor (4-8 SU, 8-3 ATS) was better than you might think under coach Art Briles, who begins his second season. He's an excellent recruiter who turned Houston into an offensive powerhouse. They ended last year on a 5-0 ATS run and hopes are high for 2009 for a possible winning record. Briles was able to jumpstart the offense, which averaged just 18 points before he arrived, to 28 points, 195 yards rushing and 180 passing in 2008. 6-foot-4 senior quarterback Blake Szymanski is back after throwing for 2,091 yards, 15 TDs and 3 picks. As a sophomore in 2007 he started nine games and threw for 2,844 yards, 22 TDs and 18 picks.
Also in the mix is Kirby Freeman, the former Miami quarterback who hopes to jumpstart his career after being a former Texas high school star. Baylor senior center J.D. Walton is one of 12 members of last year's Rimington Award watch list named to the award's 44-man 2009 spring watch list. The ground game has a terrific one-two punch in junior RB Jay Finley (865 yards, 5.8 ypc) and sophomore RB Robert Griffin (846 yards, 4.9 ypc). Sophomore WR Kendall Wright (649 yards) impressed as a freshman, so this offense looks pretty good.
Baylor's move to the spread offense three years ago allowed it to average a school-record 275 and 273 passing yards per game the next two seasons, and they continue to get better. Briles never had good defenses at Houston and he has a weak 'D' here, one that allowed 273 yards rushing and 37 points per game in 2007 and 29 ppg last fall. A lack of depth has been a problem. LB Joe Pawelek is a keeper, but the Bears were last in the Big 12 in tackles for loss and 109th in the nation in sacks. Baylor on the road the last three years is 2-13 SU, 7-8 ATS. Baylor is also just 3-29 SU, 11-20 ATS its last 32 as a dog. Despite the optimism, a winning season likely won't happen.
Texas A&M
Texas A&M Head coach Mike Sherman didn't get off to a good start, at 4-8 SU/ATS, last in the Big 12 at 2-6. He didn't inherit a lot of talent and they were often overmatched. He's a fan of a balanced offense, but his first Aggie squad averaged 25 points, 88 yards rushing and 252 passing. Texas A&M returns 48 letter winners from last year's young squad including nine offensive starters, seven defensive starters and five specialists. The returnees include four All-Big 12 selections and five players that were named Freshman All-Americans.
The big story will be behind center, with junior QB Jerrod Johnson returning, after throwing for 2,435 yards, 21 TDs and 10 picks as a sophomore (with little running game). WR Ryan Tannehill has been given a shot to unseat Johnson at the quarterback spot. The offensive line was awful, with no push for the running game and little in the way of pass protection. Travis Schneider is gone off the right side while Michael Shumard is back on the left. Josh Ayers is a true sophomore while senior Robbie Frost provides some senior leadership.
Senior RB Mike Goodson (408 yards) is back, leading the team in rushing, but getting few yars, alowing with sophomore RB Cyrus Gray (363 yards). WR Ryan Tannehill will likely end up back at wideout, as he led the Aggies with 55 catches for 844 yards, along with 6-4 sophomore WR Jeff Fuller (630) and senior TE Jamie McCoy (500). The ground game WAS terrific in 2007 under coach Dennis Franchione, averaging 28 points, 211 yards rushing and 185 passing per game in 2007.
The Aggies welcome back two of their top three tacklers from 2008, but the unit was awful, allowing 37.4 ppg. Joe Kines, a veteran football coach, begins his second season as Texas A&M assistant head coach and defensive coordinator. Kines most recently served four years (2003-06) as the Alabama assistant head coach, defensive coordinator and linebackers coach. He likes blitzing and man-to-man coverage. They will be aggressive and attacking, but the secondary is a weak spot, so they could be prone to giving up big plays again. The pressure will be on senior CB Jordan Peterson. The Aggies should be better up front with senior DT Kellen Heard.
Texas A&M is scheduled to play Texas Tech on Oct. 24 in Lubbock. If the teams' respective coaches keep up their current war of words, that game could be the grudge match of the year in the Big 12. Texas A&M coach Mike Sherman was not amused when Texas Tech coach Mike Leach brought up ex-Aggies QB Stephen McGee's draft selection in the midst of questioning NFL teams' draft decisions on the Red Raiders' star players. And he was still not happy when Leach wondered aloud where Sherman would have drafted McGee -- who sat much of his senior season -- if he were still an NFL coach. Leach noted that McGee was chosen in the fourth round by the Dallas Cowboys. "I'm happy for Stephen McGee," Leach said. "The Dallas Cowboys like him more than his coaches at A&M did." That didn't go over so well with Sherman or McGee."I don't understand Coach Leach's comments about Stephen McGee," Sherman replied. "He was named our starter until he got injured. Coach Leach is in no position to comment about my relationship with Stephen McGee." Sounds like some Big 12 fireworks in October! By the way, A&M is 7-30 SU, 13-23 ATS the last six seasons as an underdog. All of this should help you sift through information on smaller college schools when assessing college football predictions just around the corner!
By Jim Feist
2009 Big 12 (North) Preview
The college football season is fast approaching, the best time of the sports calendar. In order to make accurate college football predictions from week to week, one needs to delve deep into all the offseason changes and additions, not only with players but the coaching staffs. Here is my look at what to anticipate for the upcoming Big 12 football season.
Kansas
The Jayhawks won college basketball's 2007 national title and the football team is off a thrilling 12-1 SU, 11-1 ATS 2007 campaign and 8-5 SU, 7-5 ATS last season. 2007 Coach of the Year seventh-year head coach Mark Mangino is fortunate to have senior quarterback Todd Reesing back. He had a terrific sophomore campaign with 33 TDs, 7 INTs and 3,486 yards, and last year had 32 TDs, 13 picks and 3,888 yards. With him behind center, the Jayhawks should be explosive again, after a 2008 campaign where they averaged 32.7 points, 129 yards rushing and 302 passing. 8 starters are back on offense, 7 on 'D'.
Senior WR Kerry Meier (1,045 yards) is the second-leading returnee in the country in receptions per game with his 7.46 catches per game last year. Junior WR Dezmon Briscoe is second among returnees in receiving yards per game at 108.23, off a sophomore season with 92 catches for 1,407 yards, 15 TDs. Briscoe trails only Oklahoma State's Dez Bryant, who averaged 113.85 yards per contest in 2008. QB Todd Reesing is the fourth-leading returnee in passing yards per game at 299.08. Reesing is also fifth among active players for 2009 in career yards per game (261.3) and career touchdown passes (68).
The wide receiving duo of Dezmon Briscoe and Kerry Meier should be one of the most potent in the nation after the two combined for an incredible 2008 season. One of only two sets of wide receivers in the country last year to both have at least 90 receptions; One of only five sets of wide receivers in the country last year to both have at least 1,000 yards; Their combined 189 receptions were tied for third in the nation for a pair of teammates last year; Their combined 2,452 receiving yards were third in the nation for a pair of teammates. Rising junior WR Johnathan Wilson helps form a dangerous receiving trio. Who wants to defend that?
The Jayhawks also have senior RB Jake Sharp (821 yards, 5.6 ypc; 860 yards, 4.6 ypc the last two seasons). Sharp was eighth in rushing (66.2), but third in Big 12 games (88.8), and was a receiving threat out of the backfield as well with 25 catches for 283 yards. Senior running back Angus Quigley (309 yards) was productive, but he has moved to linebacker. Four of KU's five losses in 2008 were to ranked teams, including three games to teams ranked in the top eight. Kansas has won 23 of its last 30 games dating back to October of 2006. Kansas has also won 16 of its last 18 non-conference games, including two bowl victories, and 14 of its last 16 home games. This offense looks loaded.
On the other side of the line, second-year defensive coordinator Clint Bowen lost some talent to a 'D' that allowed 29.5 ppg, going 4-4 in the Big 12. They lost their No. 1 (James Holt), 3 (Mike Rivera) and 4 (Joe Mortensen) tacklers. They weren't just productive veterans, but very big. The projected replacements are a little quicker, more athletic, but smaller. There could be problems against power running teams. Senior linebacker Jake Schermer is solid and they like senior linebacker Arist Wright. S Darrell Stuckey (first team), DT Caleb Blakesley, DE Jake Laptad add depth and experience. Stuckey was 13th overall and fourth among defensive backs in the Big 12 Conference in tackles (7.5), Blakesley was a solid defensive tackle, while Laptad was ninth in sacks (0.54).
Kansas played 16 freshmen in 2008, including five regular starters in DT Richard Johnson, TE Tim Biere, CB Daymond Patterson, OT Jeff Spikes and OT Jeremiah Hatch. Kansas is 23-6 SU, 16-10 ATS at home the last four seasons, and on the road the team is 8-11 SU, 12-7 ATS. The Jayhawks have an easy schedule and should start 5-0, plus its a down year for their top Big 12 North competition, so they should win this division. Totals players might like the great offense and suspect defense for overs.
Missouri
Mizzou was explosive offensively again last season, averaging 42 points, 157 yards rushing and 340 yards passing. But they lost everyone to the NFL, including QB Chase Daniel, Chase Coffman and WR Jeremy Maclin. Head Coach Gary Pinkel's squad is coming off 12-2 SU, 11-2 ATS and 10-4 SU, 4-7-1 ATS seasons and its fifth bowl game appearance in the last six seasons, including a 30-23 win over Northwestern in the Alamo Bowl. Offensive coordinator Dave Christensen is gone, and they even lost a good backup QB in Chase Patton, so it all starts with who will be behind center?
Sophomore QBs 6-foot-5 Blaine Gabbert and 6-3 Jimmy Costello will battle it out, with Gabbert the likely choice. Gabbert threw for 43 yards last season, plus top recruits Blaine Dalton and Ashton Glaser are in the mix. Dalton has been suspended after he was arrested after a traffic stop near the Missouri campus in May. Columbia police stopped a vehicle driven by Dalton and found 10 Hydrocodone pills, a prescription painkiller, and alcohol. New offensive coordinator Dave Yost is expected to tweak the spread offense a bit and use more power running. The focus will be on junior RB Derrick Washington, who ran for 1,036 yards, 5.9 yards per carry as a sophomore.
They love to use wideouts for end-arounds, so look for more from senior WR Jared Perry (567 receiving yards) and 6-foot-5 senior WR Danario Alexander (329). A guy to watch is sophomore RB Drew Temple, whose brother Tony led the Tigers in rushing in 2007. Pinkel said, "I think the offensive line is the obvious place to start. I don't want to overuse the word 'concern,' because you go through this all of the time with graduation. I think there are some good athletes there. Bottom line is, the reason you win is because you do the right things up front, and that's our challenge this spring to get that done as a staff."
Mizzou was terrible on defense, giving up 27.5 ppg, and lost future NFL starting tackle in Ziggy Hood in the first round. Three starters are gone off the defensive front and the secondary needs three new starters, too. At least LB Sean Weatherspoon is back to anchor a good linebacking corps. The secondary has senior CB Hardy Ricks. Pinkel has experimented with some no-huddle and spread formation tactics used by Urban Meyer at Utah and Florida, so the offense should score plenty again. Mizzou is 14-6 over the total the last two years. Missouri plays its home games on turf, and note they are 21-31 SU their last 52 road games. Missouri is 30-11 SU, 20-16 ATS its last 41 home games. They should go bowling, but won't be as dominant offensively as 2008. An Under the total team? Something to keep in mind with college football predictions this fall.
Colorado
Two years ago we wrote that Colorado really wasn't as bad as that 2-10 SU, 3-8 ATS 2006 season might suggest. They took a major step forward in 2007 under coach Dan Hawkins, going 6-6 Su/ATS before losing to Alabama in a bowl, 30-24. Along the way they shocked then-No. 3 Oklahoma, 27-24 as a 23-point dog, one of the many shocking upsets in 2007. It was the Buffaloes' first win over a top-five team since Dec. 1, 2001, when they bested Texas in the Big 12 title game. Last season injuries derailed what should have been a good offense, going 5-7 SU, 4-7 ATS. Hawkins (the former Boise State coach) begins his fouth season. Hawkins ran wide-open offenses at Boise, and the Buffaloes improved in 2007 averaging 29 points, 165 yards rushing and 221 yards passing in Big 12 play.
But injuries slowed things down in 2008, averaging 20 points and 194 yards passing. The Buffs were last in the league in scoring, yards, and passing efficiency and were 11th in passing and 10th in rushing. Eight starters return on offense. His son, junior QB Cody Hawkins, got the offense moving as a freshman, passing for 3,015 yards, 22 TDs and 17 INTs. Last season Hawkins had 17 TDs, 10 picks and 1,892 yards, while splitting time with freshman QB Tyler Hansen (1 TDs, 4 picks). Sophomore quarterback Tyler Hansen broke his right thumb on his throwing hand in the Buffaloes' annual spring game. Hansen was injured when he slammed his thumb into the helmet of defensive end Marquez Herrod. He should be ready to go for the fall, but Hawkins is likely to get more snaps in Colorado's West Coast attack.
Getting guards Max Tuioti-Mariner and Mike Iltis back from knee injures will help, and overall age and experience will also be a plus. The Buffs had to throw several players to the wolves and it showed with no pass protection and weak ground game. 5-foot-6 sophomore RB Rodney Stewart (622 yards) led the team as a freshman and ran for a strong 4.7 yards per carry. They added one of the nation's top running backs in the 2008 recruiting class in Darrell Scott, who stumbled for just 343 yards, 3.9 ypc, as a freshman behind the banged-up offensive line. Year 2 for the kid should be much better.
Junior RB Demetrius Sumler (335, 251 yards the last two years) and Kevin Moyd add depth. 4 targets caught over 200 yards as they spread the ball around. They return junior WR Scotty McKnight (555, 519 yards the last two years) and junior WR Josh Smith (451, 387 yards in 2007 and 2008), who led the team as freshmen. Senior TE Riar Geer and senior tight end Patrick Devenny add depth and experience. Tailbacks Kevin Moyd and Corey Nabors started attending receiver meetings and are listed at both positions.
The Buffs played poorly on defense last season, giving up 29 ppg. That was similar to 2007 when, despite smacking Oklahoma around, they allowed 34 points, 138 yards rushing and 302 yards passing per game in Big 12 play. Defensively, senior linebacker Bryan Stengel and sophomore linebacker Brandon Gouin lead a good LB corps. Defensive back is a position where young players will be expected to fill a void this season, with sophomore Anthony Perkins. Because of the weak offense, Colorado was 6-3-1 under the total, but remember when they were healthy on offense in 2007 they went 8-5 over the total with a strong offense and a weak secondary. A good season is possible, though note they are 2-13 SU, 3-12 ATS on the road under Hawkins and 4-17 SU/ATS on the road the last four years. Road games at West Virginia, Texas, K-State and Oklahoma State will be tough. Don't underestimate Colorado: The Buffaloes are 33-30 against the spread as a dog since 1998.
Nebraska
The offensive experiment with Bill Callahan didn't quite work out, so the Huskers turned the program over to former defensive coordinator Bo Pelini. Nebraska has been a beast offensively, even under Pelini, but they lose QB Joe Ganz and all the top playmakers, so this is really the first real look at the Pelini offense. The quarterback situation is a bit muddled with sophomore QB Patrick Witt trying to prove he's ready for the big time, while QB Kody Spanos is also in the mix. It's hard to see the Husker approaching last season's offensive numbers under Gamz: 36 points, with 173 yards rushing and 284 yards passing per game.
The ground game has junior RB Roy Helu Jr (803 yards), a sizzling 6.4 yards per carry, and junior RB Quentin Castille (467 yards). The receiving issue is in good shape with 6-foot-4 senior Menelik Holt (355 yards), junior WR Niles Paul (214), senior WR Chris Brooks, Will Henry, 6-4 junior tight end Mike McNeil (442 yards) and last year's super-recruit Antonio Bell. The offense has talent, but it will all hinge on the development of the new QBs.
The defense allowed 29 ppg and has a ways to go. Pelini won a national title in 2007 with LSU as DC; Pelini is the head coach here and his brother Carl Pelini is the defensive coordinator. Oklahoma won a national title in 2000 with the Stoops' brothers in similar positions. The defense was a disaster in 2007 and got the Pelini's full attention. Pelini said he was happy with the way defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh was taking charge of the defense. Nebraska senior defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh is one of 42 players who have been named to the 2009 Lott Trophy Watch List. Suh will anchor the 2009 Nebraska defense after a dominant performance in 2008.
Suh earned first-team All-Big 12 honors after leading Nebraska with 76 tackles, including 7.5 sacks and 19 tackles for loss. He was the first interior defensive lineman to lead Nebraska in tackles since 1973, and he also had two interception returns for touchdowns. Nebraska wasn't a good road team under Callahan, at 7-13 SU/ATS the previous three years, but was 2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS under Pelini. Early road trips to Virginia Tech and Missouri will tell a lot about whether the defense is improved or not and whether they have found a capable QB.
Kansas State
Kansas State went 7-6, 5-7 and 5-7 under Head Coach Ron Prince, so he got fired. They lost QB Josh Freeman to the NFL, so new/old coach Bill Snyder has a big job to do. At least he knows how to turn a disaster into a national powerhouse, though that will take time (if it happens at all). After all, Snyder's last few K-State teams weren't very good. Freeman got all the headlines and managed a very strong offense, but let's not overlook a defense that was horrible, allowing 35.8 ppg. 7 starters return on offense, 8 on defense.
There is hope -- and a lot of rebuilding to do. The tradition that head coach Bill Snyder established between 1989-2005 at Kansas State will continue beginning in 2009 as the architect of the greatest turnaround in college football history has come out of retirement and will once again stroll the sidelines of the stadium that now bears his own name. Snyder gives the Wildcats instant credibility with his 136 career wins, 11 bowl games, four Big 12 North Division Titles and 2003 Big 12 Championship.
The early favorite with the most game experience would appear to be junior QB Carson Coffman. Coffman saw action in six of the Wildcats' games last season, completed 61-percent of his passes for a total of 282 yards and a touchdown. Coffman will battle with current redshirt freshmen 6-5 Collin Klein and 6-4 Joseph Kassanavoid as well as junior college transfer Daniel Thomas. Thomas is considered to be a dual-threat quarterback, something that Snyder has been known to utilize in the past. As a sophomore at Northwest Mississippi Junior College, he rushed for 562 yards and six touchdowns while completing 24-of-51 passes for 450 yards and two touchdowns.
All three of last year's starting running backs return. Lamark Brown made the transition from wide receiver last year, and became a six-game starter for the Wildcats and led the team with 412 yards and five touchdowns. Sophomore Logan Dold (333 yards), senior Keithen Valentine, Jarell Childs, Frank Delarue and Dee Bell give the Cats some added depth. The wide receiver position will continue to be a bright spot for the Wildcats as a trio of seniors will lead the team at the position. Senior Brandon Banks emerged as one of the speediest receivers in the nation last year, leading the Wildcats in receptions (67), receiving yards (1,049), and receiving touchdowns (9). He teams with seniors Attrail Snipes and Aubrey Quarles (407 yds) to give the Wildcats a solid nucleus of wideouts.
Kansas State's defense will have a new look with new co-defensive coordinators Vic Koenning and Chris Cosh. Sophomore DE Brandon Harold saw time at both defensive end and defensive tackle in 2008, and was honored at the end of last season with his selection as a first team freshman All-American by College Football News. The defensive end totaled 45 tackles. Another returning starter up front is senior defensive end Eric Childs, who started 11 games while seeing action in all 12 games. Childs tallied 52 tackles, 6.5 for loss, with 2.5 sacks last season. K-State returns two regular starters at linebacker from last season in Ulla Pomele and Alex Hrebec. Kansas State is a poor 5-19 SU/9-15 ATS on the road the last five seasons. The schedule finds a stretch of 4 road games in 5 weeks beginning on September 12. This looks like a rebuilding year. By the way, they are on a 6-1 run over the total because of that defense.
Iowa State
The Cyclones struggled in 2007 and 2008 at 3-9 SU/5-5 ATS and 2-10 SU, 5-6 ATS under Gene Chizik. And for some reason, he got promoted -- to another school! Auburn hired him away in a strange move. Chizik has a terrific resume as a defensive coordinator, being an assistant head coach and defensive coordinator on Texas' 2005 national championship team and before that, he spent three years as defensive coordinator at Auburn earning the Frank Broyles Award as the nation's top assistant coach. Regardless, he's gone and the new coach is Paul Rhoads, the former Auburn defensive coordinator. Rhoads, who was raised in Ankeny, Iowa, coordinated the Pitt defense for eight seasons (2000-07) before moving to Auburn in the same role last season.
He inherits a young team that had a decent offense but an awful defense, allowing 35.8 ppg. Iowa State averaged 25.3 points, 138 yards rushing and 248 yards passing on offense. Senior QB Austen Arnaud (2,792 yards, 15 TDs, 10 picks) returns and is a fine runner, with 401 rushing yards, second on the team. Senior RB Alexander Robinson led in rushing in 2007 with 465 yards (3.9 ypc) and catching 23 passes for 167 yards; then last season added 703 yards, 4.6 ypc. The offensive line started three underclassmen and has decent potential going into the season after doing a decent job last year.
Sophomore WR Darius Darks (477 yards) impressed a freshman, while senior WR Houston Jones (384) adds depth and experience. The defense was awful and at least will be more experienced with seven starters returning highlighted by a decent linebacking corps. The new coach likes attacking, hard hitting safeties, but has a lot of new faces in the secondary. Kansas is 17-12 UNDER the total the last three seasons. Note that Iowa State is 4-27 SU/11-20 ATS on the road the last six seasons. They will be last in the Big 12 again.
2009 Big 12 (South) Preview
Oklahoma
Oklahoma is off a 12-2 SU, 10-3 ATS season with a powerhouse team, one that outscored opponents by a 54-24 average. Junior QB Sam Bradford decided to stay rather than be the first pick in the NFL draft, so hopes are high. Of concern, though, is an offensive line that has new looks and struggled in spring practice. Plus, they had a critical injury to receiver Corey Wilson after a car accident, with paralysis from the waist down which shocked the team. So the key is the offensive line and to replace the top wideouts.
Coach Bob Stoops has another terrific offense behind 6-foot-5 junior QB Sam Bradford, one that averaged 205 yards rushing and 356 passing. Bradford was spectacular as a redshirt freshman, with 3,121 yards, 69% completions, 36 TDs and only 8 INTs. Last season he had 50 TDs, 8 picks and 4,720 yards! Sophomore WR Ryan Broyles (687 yards) and 6-4 senior WR Adron Tennell are the only experienced wideouts back. Some great news is that senior TE Jermaine Gresham (950 yards, 14 TDs) is one of the nation's best tight ends. Young targets Jameel Owens and Dejuan Miller have good upside.
Stephen Good, the projected starter at right guard, struggled at times in the spring. They had a patchwork of blockers at times that obviously still has a lot of work to do. In the first half alone of one spring game, the offensive line gave up five quarterback sacks (of the touched-down variety) and two holding penalties. At least the ground game is loaded with junior RB DeMarco Murray (1,002 yards, 5.6 ypc), senior RB Chris Brown (1,220 yards, 5.6 ypc) and soph Mossis Madu. Keep an eye on sophomore running back Jermie Calhoun, a top prospect.
On defense, senior DT DeMarcus Granger anchors a solid line, though the usually strong linebacker corps has some new looks. The star of the 2008 recruiting class is potential stud defensive end R.J Washington. Strongside starting LB Keenan Clayton, a 2009 senior, battled a high ankle sprain in the spring. Middle linebacker Ryan Reynolds, another '09 senior, is still coming back from a torn ACL and didn't do anything in the spring. Middle linebacker Austin Box, another potential starter, is recovering from elbow surgery.
Oklahoma is 20-3 SU, 14-6 ATS at home the last three seasons. The schedule is easy, outside of a revenge game against Texas on October 17. Road games at Miami, Kansas, Nebraska and at Texas Tech ren't that tough, so running the table is a possibility, as is a national title-type season. A rematch with Florida, anyone? By the way, the Sooners are on an 8-1 run over the total.
Texas
Everyone remembers Oklahoma winning the Big 12 title game then losing to Florida in the national championship game. What they may forget is that Texas upset Oklahoma during the regular season, tied for first (7-1) in the Big 12 with the Sooners, then got jobbed as a committee chose Oklahoma over Texas to go to the Big 12 title game. That should add some motivation to a talented team, especially one with four-year starter QB Colt McCoy back. Mack Brown followed up a 2005 national championship season with a 10-3 "rebuilding" 2006 season, then another 10-3 SU, 9-4 ATS season in 2007 and 12-1 SU, 9-4 ATS in 2008. The Longhorns are loaded on offense once again, on a unit that averaged 44 points, 177 yards rushing and 299 passing. Texas is 45-7 SU, 35-16 ATS the last four seasons and 7-1 SU/8-0 ATS its last 8 as a dog!
Senior QB Colt McCoy had another strong season, with 3,8593 yards, 76% completions, 34 TDs and 8 picks. That was far better than 2007 when he had 3,303 yards, 65% completions, 22 TDs and 18 picks. He was outstanding as a freshman in 2006, passing for 2,570 yards, 29 TDs and 7 INTs while hitting 68% of his passes. McCoy is an excellent runner and ran for 561 yards, tops on the team. Texas is 12-7-2 over the total the last two years, which means the Longhorns are 30-14-2 OVER the total the last four seasons.
The running game usually is a staple at Texas, but has been a big disappointment, as McCoy led the team in rushing. Four starters are back on the offensive front, led by tackle Adam Ulatoski, and running backs sophomore Fozzy Whittaker (284 yards), junior RB Vondrell McGee (376), and soph Cody Johnson (338) are back. The top two wideouts are gone, so junior WR Brandon Collins (430 yards) will have to step up, along with young wide receivers everywhere in James Kirkendoll, Malcolm Williams and Dan Buckner.
Defensively, Texas was soft in 2007 allowing 28 ppg in Big 12 play and over 300 yards passing per conference tilt. That's why they brought in new (former Auburn) defensive coordinator Will Muschamp. He installed a more physical defense like ones he ran at LSU and Auburn, and they were much better, allowing 18.6 ppg. It starts with a strong LB corps with senior LB Roddrick Muckleroy and 6-4 senior Sergio Kindle. The secondary has plenty of experience with young CBs juninor Chykie Brown and senior Deon Beasley. The scheule isn't bad, outside of October road games back-to-back at Missouri and Oklahoma State. The October 17 battle with Oklahoma will be the next big test. The last eight seasons after playing the Sooners (5 losses), the Longhorns are 58-8 SU/36-23-2 ATS the rest of the season (9-2 SU, 8-6 ATS the last two years). They are a threat to be in the national title game.
Oklahoma State
The Cowboys (9-4 SU, 8-4 ATS) begin their fifth season under Head coach Mike Gundy and his electric offense. On offense they go with a no-huddle at times and dazzled with 41 points, 256 yards rushing and 233 passing per game! Oklahoma State finished sixth in the nation in total offense, was ninth in scoring, fifth in passing efficiency and eighth in rushing offense. Best off all, they get almost everyone back with eight starters returning. After starting 7-0, the Cowboys fell apart again, ending on a 2-4 SU/ATS run. Despite NFL-caliber talent, the defense often stinks and they can't win the big ones (another close loss to Texas, this time 28-24). That's the recent history the Cowboys want to change.
There are no concerns about the offense. Senior QB Zac Robinson is off a strong junior season with 3,064 yards, 65% completions, 25 TDs and 10 picks. As a sophomoore in 2007 he had 2,824 yards, 60% completions, 23 TDs and 9 picks. He's an electric runner, rushing for 847 and 562 yards the last two seasons, second and third most yards on the team. He teams with fast, 5-foot-8 senior RB Kendall Hunter (1,555 yards, 6.5 ypc), senior RB Keith Toston (686 yards, 6.7 ypc) and former JUCO transfer senior RB Beau Johnson (357). Speedy senior WR Dez Bryant (1,480 yards, 19 TDs) is a keeper, while 6-foot-5 junior WR Damian Davis (414) averaged 21 yards per catch as a sophomore. This group is outstanding, so there is plenty of pop in the offense.
The defense, though, has been more 'dud' than 'pop.' They allowed 27 points per game, and got torched by Texas Tech (56-20 defeat) and Oklahoma (61-41). Third year defensive coordinator Tim Beckman came over from Ohio State, where he had been coaching cornerbacks. Back in 2007 the defense gave up 33 points per game in Big 12 play and had meltdowns against Troy, Texas, Kansas and Oklahoma. The Cowboy defensive front was last in the league in sacks and didn’t do much to get into the backfield against the run. Both starting defensive ends, Ugo Chinasa and Derek Burton, are back.
The secondary has to replace three starters to a unit that struggled down the strech. Linebacker is deep with seniors Patrick Lavine and Chris Collins, who earned Freshmen All-America honors in 2006. They open at home against Georgia, an early big test. Yes, they are 17-14 over the total the last three years and look like an offensive machine in 2009.
Texas Tech
Mike Leach has quite a system in place, plugging in players, going without an offensive playbook, while his pass-happy attack just keeps churning along. They've averaged 8 wins per season for the past seven years and they're coming off an 11-2 season averaging 417 yards passing and 44.6 points per game. The school took care of Leach, locking him up, but now the coach has to do a load of rebuilding on both sides of the football for 2009.
Their high-flying offense has a new quarterback in junior QB Taylor Potts. He was a good recruit a few years ago and has been around long enough to know the system, throwing for 260 yards, 2 TDs and one pick last fall. WR Michael Crabtree is off to the NFL, so they will spread the ball around to a lot of players, with junior WR Detron Lewis (913 yards, second on the team) a budding star. Senior WR Edward Britton (577 yards) and junior WR Lyle Leong (206) add great depth on a team that doesn't use a tight end.
The running game is actually productive, using draws and screens, with junior RB Baron Batch (758 yards, 6.7 ypc), and he also caught 45 passes for 449 yards. Note that Texas Tech averaged 49 ppg at home where they went 7-0 SU, 2-4 ATS. Texas Tech is 37-6 SU, 25-14 ATS its last 43 home games. While the wide-open offense gets all the ink, this defense has been decent the last five years. Texas Tech allowed just 18.8 ppg in 2005, 25 ppg in 2006, 25.9 ppg in 2007 and 26.3 ppg last season. They also have a new look with second-year defensive coordinator Ruffin McNeill. Defensive tackle senior Richard Jones is strong, while University of Miami transfer Chris Perry, safety Brett Dewhurst and soph Ryan Haliburton add depth.
But Texas Tech defensive end McKinner Dixon was suspended by coach Mike Leach for not taking care of his academic responsibilities in the spring. Dixon led all returning Tech players with nine sacks and 11 tackles for losses last season on the Red Raiders' 11-2 team, which captured a share of the Big 12's South Division championship for the first time in school history. Texas Tech is 19-12-1 "over" the total the last three years. The schedule isn't bad, but they have a road game at Texas (revenge for the Longhorns) and road games at Nebraska and Oklahoma State. All in all, expect another 8-9 wins and a bowl.
Baylor
Baylor (4-8 SU, 8-3 ATS) was better than you might think under coach Art Briles, who begins his second season. He's an excellent recruiter who turned Houston into an offensive powerhouse. They ended last year on a 5-0 ATS run and hopes are high for 2009 for a possible winning record. Briles was able to jumpstart the offense, which averaged just 18 points before he arrived, to 28 points, 195 yards rushing and 180 passing in 2008. 6-foot-4 senior quarterback Blake Szymanski is back after throwing for 2,091 yards, 15 TDs and 3 picks. As a sophomore in 2007 he started nine games and threw for 2,844 yards, 22 TDs and 18 picks.
Also in the mix is Kirby Freeman, the former Miami quarterback who hopes to jumpstart his career after being a former Texas high school star. Baylor senior center J.D. Walton is one of 12 members of last year's Rimington Award watch list named to the award's 44-man 2009 spring watch list. The ground game has a terrific one-two punch in junior RB Jay Finley (865 yards, 5.8 ypc) and sophomore RB Robert Griffin (846 yards, 4.9 ypc). Sophomore WR Kendall Wright (649 yards) impressed as a freshman, so this offense looks pretty good.
Baylor's move to the spread offense three years ago allowed it to average a school-record 275 and 273 passing yards per game the next two seasons, and they continue to get better. Briles never had good defenses at Houston and he has a weak 'D' here, one that allowed 273 yards rushing and 37 points per game in 2007 and 29 ppg last fall. A lack of depth has been a problem. LB Joe Pawelek is a keeper, but the Bears were last in the Big 12 in tackles for loss and 109th in the nation in sacks. Baylor on the road the last three years is 2-13 SU, 7-8 ATS. Baylor is also just 3-29 SU, 11-20 ATS its last 32 as a dog. Despite the optimism, a winning season likely won't happen.
Texas A&M
Texas A&M Head coach Mike Sherman didn't get off to a good start, at 4-8 SU/ATS, last in the Big 12 at 2-6. He didn't inherit a lot of talent and they were often overmatched. He's a fan of a balanced offense, but his first Aggie squad averaged 25 points, 88 yards rushing and 252 passing. Texas A&M returns 48 letter winners from last year's young squad including nine offensive starters, seven defensive starters and five specialists. The returnees include four All-Big 12 selections and five players that were named Freshman All-Americans.
The big story will be behind center, with junior QB Jerrod Johnson returning, after throwing for 2,435 yards, 21 TDs and 10 picks as a sophomore (with little running game). WR Ryan Tannehill has been given a shot to unseat Johnson at the quarterback spot. The offensive line was awful, with no push for the running game and little in the way of pass protection. Travis Schneider is gone off the right side while Michael Shumard is back on the left. Josh Ayers is a true sophomore while senior Robbie Frost provides some senior leadership.
Senior RB Mike Goodson (408 yards) is back, leading the team in rushing, but getting few yars, alowing with sophomore RB Cyrus Gray (363 yards). WR Ryan Tannehill will likely end up back at wideout, as he led the Aggies with 55 catches for 844 yards, along with 6-4 sophomore WR Jeff Fuller (630) and senior TE Jamie McCoy (500). The ground game WAS terrific in 2007 under coach Dennis Franchione, averaging 28 points, 211 yards rushing and 185 passing per game in 2007.
The Aggies welcome back two of their top three tacklers from 2008, but the unit was awful, allowing 37.4 ppg. Joe Kines, a veteran football coach, begins his second season as Texas A&M assistant head coach and defensive coordinator. Kines most recently served four years (2003-06) as the Alabama assistant head coach, defensive coordinator and linebackers coach. He likes blitzing and man-to-man coverage. They will be aggressive and attacking, but the secondary is a weak spot, so they could be prone to giving up big plays again. The pressure will be on senior CB Jordan Peterson. The Aggies should be better up front with senior DT Kellen Heard.
Texas A&M is scheduled to play Texas Tech on Oct. 24 in Lubbock. If the teams' respective coaches keep up their current war of words, that game could be the grudge match of the year in the Big 12. Texas A&M coach Mike Sherman was not amused when Texas Tech coach Mike Leach brought up ex-Aggies QB Stephen McGee's draft selection in the midst of questioning NFL teams' draft decisions on the Red Raiders' star players. And he was still not happy when Leach wondered aloud where Sherman would have drafted McGee -- who sat much of his senior season -- if he were still an NFL coach. Leach noted that McGee was chosen in the fourth round by the Dallas Cowboys. "I'm happy for Stephen McGee," Leach said. "The Dallas Cowboys like him more than his coaches at A&M did." That didn't go over so well with Sherman or McGee."I don't understand Coach Leach's comments about Stephen McGee," Sherman replied. "He was named our starter until he got injured. Coach Leach is in no position to comment about my relationship with Stephen McGee." Sounds like some Big 12 fireworks in October! By the way, A&M is 7-30 SU, 13-23 ATS the last six seasons as an underdog. All of this should help you sift through information on smaller college schools when assessing college football predictions just around the corner!
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| Dave Cokin's Hardcore Football 11/30/09 |
| Dave Cokin |
| Turkeys, Turnovers, Trends and Upsets! |
| Jim Feist |
| September College Football: Upset City! |
| Jim Feist |
| Football ATS Rumblings |
| Roz Juarbe |
| Football Scheduling and Sandwiches |
| Jim Feist |
| Big 12 Football Preview |
| Jim Feist |
| 2009 Conference USA Football Preview |
| Jim Feist |
| 2009 College Football's Top 40! |
| Jim Feist |
| 2009 MAC Football Preview |
| Jim Feist |
| 2009 ACC Football Preview |
| Jim Feist |
| Big East Football Preview |
| Jim Feist |
| College Football Momentum for 2009 |
| Jim Feist |
| Late December: The Best Time for Bowling! |
| Jim Feist |
| Turkeys, Turnovers and Upsets! |
| Jim Feist |
| NFL STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE |
| Scott Spreitzer |
