2009 ACC Football Preview

Friday, July 31, 2009
By Jim Feist

2009 ACC: Atlantic Coast Conference Football Preview

The college football season is fast approaching, the best time of the sports calendar. In order to make accurate college football predictions from week to week, one needs to delve deep into all the offseason changes and additions, not only with players but the coaching staffs. Here is my look at what to anticipate for the upcoming ACC football season.

Atlantic Division

Florida State

Hard to believe a football factory like Florida State is off back-to-back 7-6 and 9-4 seasons, but it's true. They barely made a bowl in 2006, and it looked even worse when you realize four of their wins were against Troy, Rice, Virginia and Western Michigan. They beat Troy by 7 as a 26-point favorite and squeaked by Western Michigan 28-20 as an 18-point chalk. In 2007 the defense fell apart, giving up 37 to Miami, 40 to Virginia Tech, 45 to Florida, followed by a 35-28 loss to Kentucky in a bowl. Not exactly what Seminole fans are used to. Last season was better, going 9-4 SU, 6-5 ATS.

8 starters return on offense, 5 on defense. This is Jimbo Fisher's third season as offensive coordinator and there is no quarterback controversy for the first time in a while. This offense was very balanced, averaging 32.7 points, 182 yards rushing and 185 yards passing. Fisher's offense helped LSU to a national title in 2003. Most of last year's starting unit is back. The offense has junior quarterback Christian Ponder back, who played well in 2008, with 14 TDs, 13 picks and 2,006 yards. Don't rule out sophomore QB E.J. Manuel, a terrific recruit from 2008.

While they want to improve the passing game, this ground game looks loaded behind a strong offensive line. Rodney Hudson is a rock at left guard, and six freshmen started games a year ago, led by Offensive Newcomer of the Year Andrew Datko. Sophomore RB Jermaine Thomas is quick and ran for 482 yards, a whopping 7 yards per carry! Ponder is a mobile QB who ran for 423 yards, plus junior RB/QB D'Vontrey Richardson chipped in 255 rushing yards. The passing game will be young with soph WR Taiwan Easterling (322 yards) and 165-pound sophomore WR Bert Reed. The Seminoles finished the year ranked first in scoring offense and second in total offense and rushing offense in the ACC. FSU’s rushing offense improved from 91st in the nation in 2007 to 33rd last season.

The Florida State defense was strong up front, allowing 20.8 ppg. Florida State's defense ranked 13th nationally in total defense under DC Mickey Andrews. In 2008 Andrews' defense led the nation in tackles for loss, was fourth in sacks, sixth in pass defense and 15th in total defense. Both outside linemen are gone, but FSU returns two of its starters on the interior in Kendrick Stewart and Budd Thacker. The Seminoles led the nation in third down conversion defense last season.

Florida State will need to replace all three of the team's leading tacklers from last season and three of the top four pass rushers (sacks). They are 3-1 SU/ATS their last 4 road games, and they play 5 road games this season. A September trip out to Utah to play BYU is odd, plus they end the season with three of four tough road games (at Clemson, Wake and Florida). Still, the Seminoles should be very competitive in the ACC with another winning season.


Wake Forest

Run-oriented Wake Forest has always been competitive under 9th-year Demon Deacons Head Coach Jim Grobe. The last three years they have been sensational, winning the ACC in 2006, rolling to a 9-4 SU, 10-3 ATS mark in 2007, and 8-5 SU, 6-7 ATS last fall. That makes Wake 28-12 SU, 24-15 ATS the last three years! Wake Forest's 12 opponents combined to go 84-69 last year, a winning percentage of .549. Eight opponents played in bowl games last season. The defense led the way last season, as the offense was more ball control, averaging 20 points, 111 yards rushing and 188 passing. The good news is QB Riley Skinner is back for a fourth season to pilot the offense.

On offense, they are still a ground-oriented attack. They averaged 203 yards on the ground and 27.8 points per game in 2003, 21 ppg and 206 rush yards in 2004, 24.5 points, and 197.5 yards rushing in 2005. In 2007 they were opportunistic, averaging just 137 yards rushing and 181 passing per game, but a strong 27.8 ppg. Senior QB Riley Skinner runs a low risk, short passing offense and he threw 13 TDs, 7 picks last season, but has completed 72% and 64% of his passes the last two seasons. He was outstanding as a freshman in 2006 with 9 TDs, 5 picks, 2,051 yards while completing 65.8% of his passes. Skinner was 21-of-33 for 271 yards in the Orange bowl against Louisville that season.

After finishing 10th in the league in sacks allowed and 11th in yards per carry, this offensive line looks to improve and has everyone back, which will help. They also "add" big Chris DeGeare, who sat out the year for academic reasons. The running game by committee is loaded with junior RB Josh Adams (392 yards), sophomore RB Brandon Pendergrass (528 yards, 3.5 ypc), and senior Kevin Harris (176) are capable of forming one of the league's most productive backfields. Adams led the Deacons in rushing as a freshman with 953 yards, 4.4 ypc, and 11 TDs. Wake loses it top wide out, but returns junior WR Marshall Williams (390 yards) and 6-5 senior TE Ben Wooster (211).

The swarming defense has been great the last three years, allowing 15 points per contest and just 3.1 yards per rush in 2006 and 18 points and 3.1 yards per rush in 2007, and just 18.3 ppg last fall. The defense is an attacking unit, though Wake is 16-9 over the total the last two years and loses LB Aaron Curry to the NFL. They led the ACC in 2007 with 35 takeaways. Senior NT Boo Robinson anchors the line, while senior CB Channing Schofield handles the secondary. The secondary is the major concern for 2009, losing several experienced hands. Wake will go with a 4-3 lineup and will use a 3-3-5 from time to time to surprise the opponent. Wake has a history of playing tough, and is 7-4 ATS as a dog the last two years.

The Deacons will play five of their first six games at BB&T Field including the season-opener against Baylor on Sept. 5. The Deacons follow with home contests against Stanford on Sept. 12 and Elon on Sept. 19. After opening ACC play at Boston College on Sept. 26, Wake will return home to host NC State on Oct. 3 and Maryland on Oct. 10. Wake will play four of its final six games on the road. The Deacons travel to Clemson on Oct. 17 and play a non-league contest at Navy on Oct. 24. Wake then closes ACC play with a home game against Miami on Oct. 31, a road trip to Georgia Tech on Nov. 7, a home game with Florida State on Nov. 14 and the season finale at Duke on Nov. 28. The Deacons have an open date on Nov. 21. Note that Wake is 8-4 over the total their last 10 road games and 11-3 SU, 10-2 ATS their last 14 home games.


NC State

If momentum is huge, NC State should be fired up for 2009, ending last season on a 4-1 SU, 5-0 ATS run. In fact, they have covered 8 straight games. The Wolfpack (6-7 SU, 10-2 ATS) caught fire under second-year coach Tom O'Brien, after finishing last in the ACC Atlantic in 2007. In fact, that's a trend now, as in 2007 NC State went on a 4-0 SU/ATS run, winning three times as a dog, under the former Marine and Boston College coach. In 1996 O'Brien took over at BC, turning around a program that had been wracked with scandal and instability. The Eagles had back-to-back 4-7 seasons, then had eight consecutive winning seasons and eight consecutive bowl victories. 5 starters return on offense, 7 on defense.

O'Brien likes a balanced offense and his 2008 team averaged 23.5 points, 125 yards rushing and 200 passing. The key is the play of sophomore quarterback Russell Wilson, who was sensational with 17 TDs and only one interception! He won't top that percentage the rest of his college career, but he doesn't have to. Wilson, a two-sport standout for the Wolfpack, missed the first six weeks of baseball because of a knee injury he suffered near the end of the first half of the Papajohns.com Bowl on Dec. 29. He is expected to be fully ready for football. Wilson wowed fans with his ability to scramble out of trouble last fall, but the young quarterback also suffered three significant injuries: a concussion in the season-opener against South Carolina, an injury against East Carolina and the knee injury in the bowl game against Rutgers.

The top pass catcher returns in 6-foot-3 junior WR Owen Spencer (609 yards, 5 TDs), along with 6-foot-4 junior WR Jarvis Williams (432 yards) and sophomore WR T.J. Graham (251 yards). 3 of the top 4 pass catchers return. O'Brien and OC Dana Bible love a power running game, but loses top RB Andre Brown. Senior RB Jamelle Eugene (442 yards) will get a chance to get more carries. O'Brien is an excellent recruiter and the freshmen influx of talent has gotten some attention as ESPN rated the Wolfpack's recruiting class No. 20 in the nation. Redshirt freshman QB Mike Glennon is a top recruit and current backup to Wilson. With Wilson coming back from injuries, having a talented backup will be important.

The defense is a concern, giving up 26 ppg, with decent depth, but losing several key players. North Carolina State was last in the ACC last year in pass defense, having more breakdowns in coverage than big plays. DeAndre Morgan and Justin Byers are back at cornerback and safety and S Javon Morgan is expected to return after missing all of 2008 with a knee injury. CB Dominique Ellis and S Jimmaul Simmons also return, so there is experience and depth. Oddly, it was the run defense that was so poor in O'Brien's first season, allowing over 200 yards rushing 7 times!

After going 16-6 under the total in 2005 and 2006 with a strong defense and an anemic offense, the Wolfpack is 7-4 and 6-5 over the total the last two years with an improving pass offense and a suspect defense. The schedule has 5 of their first 6 games at home, with a pair of cupcakes, so a good start is likely. Later road games at BC, Florida State and Virginia Tech will be tough. Their goals should be a winning season and a small bowl again.


Clemson

Things changed quickly in one year for the Tigers. Head Coach Tommy Bowden had a super team a year ago, then he got fired in mid-season after an up and down start. A Top 20 team that got dismantled in the opener by Alabama, 34-10, didn't help, and it was downhill from there. But they found a better attitude under interim coach Dabo Swinney, who has the top job now. They went 4-1 SU/ATS to end the regular season, before a 26-21 bowl loss to Nebraska.

Billy Napier is the new offensive coordinator and he has to find a new QB. Sophomore QB Willy Korn (1 TD, 1 INT) threw for 216 yards as a freshman and will be battled by mobile redshirt freshman Kyle Parker. Second leading WR Jacoby Ford comes back for his senior year after grabbing 55 passes for 710 yards and 4 TDs, while 6-5 senior TE Michael Palmer (160 yards) will get more passes throw his way. The ground game had a dynamite one-two punch in James Davis (751 yards, 4.4 ypc, 11 TDs) and RB C.J. Spiller (629 yards, 5.4 ypc), but Davis is gone. Spiller is back for his senior season, a fine quick back at 190 pounds.

The defense was fierce, allowing 16 ppg. They lose both starting safeties, but the line is very good, for Kevin Steele, the new defensive coordinator. They will be strong again with the return of senior DE Ricky Sapp and sophomore DE DaQuan Bowers. Bowers was one of the most heralded recruits to ever sign with Clemson. He and Sapp should form a sensational pass rush. This team was 7-3 under the total, and the defense looks better than the offense for 2009.

Clemson always seemed to blow a game or two under Bowden that they should have won and last year it happened more often, which cost him his job. Now the new coach has a clean slate to be judged. September finds three straight tough games against Georgia Tech, BC and TCU. Road games at Miami, Maryland, NC State and South Carolina will make a winning season challenging -- again. Clemson is 7-7 SU, 10-4 against the spread as an underdog the last four years.


Boston College

A veteran Boston College team went 11-3 SU, 8-5 ATS under first-year head coach in Jeff Jagodzinski in 2007, the first BC team to win 11 games since 1940. With a young QB and a super-defense, the Eagles went 9-5 last season, but Jagodzinski looked at NFL offers and was promptly fired in a bizarre offseason shooting match with AD Gene DeFilipo. The AD won, the team might not. The new Boston College football coach is Frank Spaziani. The 2009 season will mark Spaziani's 13th year on the BC coaching staff, having spent his first two seasons as the Eagles' running backs coach and the past 10 as defensive coordinator. Under Spaziani's guidance, the Eagles consistently have fielded one of the top defenses in college football.

Gary Tranquill is the new offensive coordinator, who was head coach at Navy from 1982-86. This team averaged 25.5 points, 143 yards rushing and 175.5 passing in a mostly run-oriented attack because of QB inexperience and injuries. They've lost 2 senior QBs in two years, and now mobile sophomore QB Dominique Davis (741 yards) is gone. Davis has decided to transfer after he was suspended by the university for academic reasons. The move leaves the Eagles without any quarterbacks who have thrown a pass at the Football Bowl Subdivision level. Both Justin Tuggle, a redshirt freshman, and Codi Boek, a junior who transferred last year from American River Junior College after starting his career in 2006 at Idaho State, are competing for the starting job.

Tuggle is a guy to watch, the son of former NFL LB Jessie Tuggle. He has a big arm and is very dangerous when he gets outside the tackles. True freshman QB Michael Marscovetra will help the position's depth. They don't have standout wide receivers, instead spreading the ball around to returnees like 6-5 senior WR Justin Jarvis (274 yards) and senior WR Rich Gunnell (551 yards). So that means the ground game will carry the load, behind sophomore RB Montel Harris (900 yards, 5.0 ypc) and 5-foot-9 sophomore Josh Haden (479). Haden has breakaway speed at 5-foot-9, just 190 pounds. This is one of the ACC's best offensive lines.

The defense has been fast and outstanding allowing 18.5 points per game, but loses B.J. Raji and Ron Brace up front. In 2008, the Eagles ranked in the top 10 in the nation in seven defensive categories, including interceptions (first, 26); turnovers gained (second, 36); total defense (fifth, 268.14 ypg.); red zone defense (sixth, 72%); first downs allowed (sixth, 14.71 pg.); rushing defense (seventh, 91.2 ypg.), and pass efficiency defense (98.81). In addition, junior linebacker Mark Herzlich was named ACC Defensive Player of the Year, back for his senior season. Spaziani has promoted Bill McGovern to defensive coordinator.

Boston College starting linebacker Mike McLaughlin, the Eagles' second-leading tackler in 2008, tore his Achilles tendon and is out for the spring. McLaughlin had 89 tackles last year, four sacks, one interception, five pass breakups and two forced fumbles. He was instrumental in BC's climb to No. 5 in the nation in total defense and No. 17 in the nation in scoring defense. McLaughlin's return for the fall remains in question. Star linebacker and ACC Defensive Player of the Year Mark Herzlich was diagnosed with cancer, a huge blow.

The Eagles are 19-4 SU, 13-7 ATS at home the last three years. BC is also 11-1 SU/ATS as a dog the last four seasons! The defense will have to carry the load this year with so many new pieces on offense. BC is 8-1 SU, 7-2 ATS the last nine years in bowl games, though that lone loss was this past season to Vanderbilt, 16-14.


Maryland

Maryland (8-5 SU, 6-6 ATS) turned a corner under Head Coach Ralph Friedgen last season, making a bowl while winning 4 times straight up as a dog, including a 35-27 blitz of Cal as a +15 home dog. He was averaging 10 wins per season, until everything went wrong in 2004 and 2005, during back-to-back frustrating 5-6 campaigns, but appear back on track. 2006 was a memorable one, going 9-4 winning an incredible string of close games, plus a bowl win over Purdue, 24-7. They won five games by 4, 2, 3, 1, and 1 point and had an 8-win campaign last fall.

Friedgen has 6 starters returning on offense and 4 on 'D'. Senior quarterback Chris Turner (13 TDs, 11 INTs, 2.516 yards), junior running back Da'Rel Scott (1,133 yards) and sophomore wide receiver Torrey Smith headline the offense. Turner is entering his third season as the starter. He ranks seventh in school history in career passing yards (4,474) and has gone 5-1 as a starter vs. Top 25 teams in his career. Scott and Smith are coming off breakouts years. Scott, a 2008 first-team All-ACC choice, rushed for 1,133 yards, the seventh-highest single-season total in school history, while Smith set the ACC single-season record for kickoff return yards (1,089 yards) and had 24 receptions for 336 yards. They averaged 20 ppg, but this offense still needs some work.

Friedgen named offensive coordinator James Franklin as his eventual successor, keeping some stability with the program. The backfield also has sophomore Davin Meggett (457 yards, 5.1 ypc) and junior RB Morgan Green. Meggett was terrific in his rookie year and Green showed what he can do in the Humanitarian Bowl, running for 72 yards and a score on 10 carries. The offensive line is a concern, with Bruce Campbell and Phil Costa back at tackle and guard, but more holes to fill. This is more of a plodding, safe passing offense. Maryland is 16-5 SU at home the last three seasons, but 7-11 SU/6-12 ATS on the road, which continues a trend: The Terps are 40-12 SU, 27-20 ATS at home since 2001!

The defense allows 21 ppg and returns junior linebacker Alex Wujciak, who sat out the spring after having off-season knee surgery. He is expected to spearhead the defense which welcomes new coordinator Don Brown. Wujciak was a 2008 second-team All-ACC performer last season after posting 133 tackles, the second-most in the league. Seniors Anthony Wiseman, Nolan Carroll, Terrell Skinner and Jamari McCollough each played significant roles last season in the secondary. The schedule is tough, opening at Cal in a big revenge game for the Bears, a 3,000 mile road trip for Maryland. Road games at Wake, FSU and NC State will make a winning season a challenge. A winning season won't be easy, but they've been to six bowl games the last eight years under Friedgen's direction.


Coastal Division

Georgia Tech

Is there a better football coach in the country than Paul Johnson? He worked wonders at Navy, then took over a .500 Georgia Tech program and they went a sizzling 9-4 (8-3 ATS). This is a run-oriented team last fall, averaging 282 yards rushing, 95 passing and 26 points. They finished 22nd in both major polls. Johnson recruits speed for his option-attack and found an ace in junior QB Josh Nesbitt. He wasn't much of a passer (2 TDs, 5 picks, 43% completions), but ran the option for 693 yards, second best on the Yellow Jackets.

Tech returns 17 starters -- 18 when including junior kicker/punter Scott Blair -- from a team that tied for the ACC Coastal Division title and played LSU in the Chick-fil-A Bowl. Johnson, who was also the CBS Sportsline National Coach of the Year, returns nine starters on offense and eight on defense. Sophomore QB Tevin Washington is an option style quarterback out of Alabama and threw for 22 yards as a freshman. He was a three year starter at quarterback for Wetumpka High school, throwing for over 5000 yards (42 TDs) and running for over 2000 yards (25 TDs). Johnson thinks he could be one of the best option quarterbacks in the nation and was a steal in last year's recruiting class. And talk about youth -- only six scholarship seniors are on the roster!

On offense, every skill position player returns, paced by junior B-back Jonathan Dwyer, the 2008 ACC Player of the Year. Dwyer led the ACC in rushing with 1,395 yards, 7 yards per carry and 12 touchdowns. Also back is sophomore A-back Roddy Jones, who came on strong late last season, and junior A-back Lucas Cox. Embry Peeples and soph RB Marcus Wright saw spot duty last fall as true freshmen A-backs. The 5-foot-7 Wright as the Texas State 5A Offensive Player of the Year, a 170-pound quick back that Johnson had such great success with at Navy. Junior Demaryius Thomas (627 yards), who had more than half of Tech's receptions last season, returns as one of the ACC's top wide receivers. Tyler Melton, who started at WR the first half of the season before suffering a knee injury, is healthy. Talented receivers Quentin Sims and Daniel McKayhan redshirted last fall and are ready to make an impact.

All five offensive linemen who started the final four games of the season return, paced by second team All-ACC guard Cord Howard. Senior center Dan Voss, who underwent off-season shoulder surgery, will not participate in spring drills. The offensive line should be considerably deeper this season as Johnson was able to redshirt four promising true freshmen last year.

The defense allowed just 18.8 ppg and is loaded. Junior defensive end Derrick Morgan, who had 7.0 sacks and four fumble recoveries as a sophomore, was an honorable mention All-ACC selection. Juniors Robert Hall and Anthony Egbuniwe, sophomore Jason Peters and redshirt freshman Antonio Wilson will compete for the other defensive end spot. At linebacker, the Jackets return four players with starting experience, led by senior Sedric Griffin, arguably Tech's most consistent LB in 2008.

Also back are juniors Anthony Barnes and Brad Jefferson. Junior safety Morgan Burnett, a second team All-American with seven interceptions last season, headlines the secondary. Safety Cooper Taylor and cornerback Rashaad Reid both played key roles as true freshmen in 2008 and junior Mario Butler returns as a starter at cornerback. G-Tech is an up and coming program under Johnson, a proven winner. His emphasis on speed threw some wrinkles into the ACC. Note that Georgia Tech carries a 7-4 run under the total into the new season. They lost 20-17 at Virginia Tech last season, but get the Hokies at home in 2009, October 17. The Hokies handed Paul Johnson his first Georgia Tech loss last season in Blacksburg, so they will be up for this rematch.


Virginia Tech

Virginia Tech (10-3 SU, 6-7 ATS) had another powerful defense that allowed 17.5 ppg. Despite a young team and all kinds of running back injuries, Coach Frank Beamer's team won a second straight ACC title. They were rebuilding in 2008, so expectations are high in 2009 with so much returning talent. The offense is a ball control unit that averaged just 167 yards rushing (3.8 ypc), just 128 passing, but their 28.7 and 22.2 points per game the last two years is because the defense set up great field position (or scored).

The quarterback situation is strong with mobile junior QB Tyrod Taylor (1,036 yards, 2 TDs, 7 picks). Taylor has more weapons to throw to this season and looks to get back to his freshman form (5 TDs, 3 picks). He also has run for 429 and 738 yards the last two seasons, second most on the team each time. With senior Greg Boone (278 yards) at tight end and young receivers sophomore WR Jarrett Boykin (441 yards), soph Dyrell Roberts (227), and soph Danny Coale (408) brimming with potential, Taylor has access to an exciting set of pass-catchers.

The offensive line returns 3 starters, though Tech has struggled with pass protection the last two years. Fortunately, sophomore RB Darren Evans returns after a terrific freshman campaign with 1,265 yards and 11 TDs. Senior RB Kenny Lewis (237) is also in the mix. Two years ago the O-line allowed 54 sacks, ranking 115th in the nation in sacks allowed per game. Virginia Tech likes to run, but has the potential to open up the passing game more in 2009. They are a stellar 7-4 SU/8-3 ATS on the road the last two years.

The offense is about balance, after averaging 113 yards rushing and 181 yards passing in 2006, and averaging 190.7 yards rushing and 190 yards passing in 2005. In 2004 they averaged 31 points, 178 yards rushing and 187 passing per game. In 2003, they averaged 35 points, 209 yards rushing and 192 passing per game. You get the idea: Beamer runs a great program. WR Dyrell Roberts was ranked the No. 27 athlete in the country by Rivals.com, while Nick Becton was rated the No. 26 offensive tackle in the country, plus Michael Via was ranked the No. 31 offensive guard in the country by Rivals.com. They carry a 5-1 run under the total into this season.

The defense is loaded once again, as usual. The sophomore defensive class includes defensive tackle Antoine Hopkins, defensive end Isaiah Hamlette, LB Derrick McCoy, LB Lyndell Gibson and LB Jake Johnson. The Hokies have been tearing up the ACC, with a 7-1 conference mark in their inaugural 2004 season, 2005's stellar 11-2 SU/ATS team that did everything right until a stunning 27-22 loss to Florida State in the ACC championship game, and 2006's 10-3 team that went 6-2 SU/5-2-1 ATS in conference play. In 2007 they went 8-1 SU, 7-2 ATS in the ACC, and 5-3 was good enough to get into the ACC title game, where they beat BC again.

With a September schedule that includes dates with Alabama, Nebraska, and Miami, the Hokies will be tested. And if they can get through this early gauntlet unscathed, they'll have a shot at the No. 1 ranking the rest of the campaign.


North Carolina

It's all about talent and recruiting, and Butch Davis knows how to do that. The Tar Heels are off an 8-5 SU, 6-5-1 ATS season, going to a bowl (losing 31-30 to West Virginia but covering as a dog), ending a four-year bowl drought. That was a major step up from 2007, a 4-8 SU, 5-6 ATS season. Even then there were improvements everywhere. Most noticeable was a defense that was stout against the run, allowing 3.5 yards per rush -- a major problem before Davis -- and they upset Miami. They also lost to Virginia Tech by just 7, to East Carolina by 3, to Virginia by 2, to Georgia Tech by 2, NC State by 4, and to South Carolina by 6.

The program is stockpiling talent. This offense was productive, despite a lot of injuries, averaging 27.5 points, 125 yards rushing and 192 passing. Junior QB T.J. Yates is back after throwing for 11 TDs, 4 picks and 1,168 yards in half a season (battling injuries). His top wideouts are gone, but Davis has a slew of potential NFL prospects in John Blake, like Todd Harrelson, Dwight Jones, Rashad Mason, and Jheranie Boyd. They have little experience, but a lot of speed and talent. The top returning wideout, Greg Little (146 yards), began 2008 as a running back.

Carolina was 89th nationally in rushing in 2008, and needs a complement to the passing game. Converted defensive back Shaun Draughn (866 yards, 4.4 ypc) provided a spark, and begins his sophomore season as the feature back. Big Ryan Houston (299 yards) scored eight times a year ago. North Carolina coaches moved junior Greg Elleby to offensive guard. Elleby, a 6-5, 305-pound junior has played the last two seasons on the defensive line, both at end and tackle. Last year, he had six tackles and forced a fumble in the season opener against McNeese State. "We've got a depth issue on the offensive line," said Davis.

North Carolina was 8-4 over the total, with a good offense but a defense that allowed 20.3 ppg and got smoked by NC State and West Virginia down the stretch. Everett Withers begins his second year as defensive coordinator. Withers came to North Carolina after serving one season as the University of Minnesota's defensive coordinator in 2007. Withers, 44, spent six seasons with the Tennessee Titans from 2001-06 under head coach Jeff Fisher. Carolina returns two all-star candidates in junior LBs Quan Sturdivant and Bruce Carter. Sturdivant led the nation with 87 solo tackles and ranked third in the ACC in total tackles per game. Carter was a one-man blocking machine, leading the country with five blocks in 2008. Sturdivant has moved to middle linebacker, creating an opening at the weakside linebacker position.

Senior DT Cam Thomas is 330-pounds and back up front along, while senior CB Charles Brown anchors a decent and experienced secondary. They like junior defensive tackle Marvin Austin up front, as well. After going 24-15 OVER the total in the four years before Davis, they were 6-5 UNDER in 2007, but 8-4 OVER last fall. UNC is 5-16 SU/8-12-1 ATS on the road the last four years (3-8 SU, 4-6-1 ATS the last two). There is plenty of hope under Davis and another bowl is likely.


Virginia

Coach Al Groh's Cavaliers have been up and down while rebuilding the last few years. They finally turned it around in 2007 going 9-4 SU, 6-7 ATS, but fell back to 5-7 SU, 4-6 ATS last season. Groh has done a great job with this program, sending many players to the NFL. The latest is DE Chris Long. He follows on the heals of TE Heath Miller, OL Elton Brown, DE Chris Canty, LB Darryl Blackstock, Kai Parham, D'Brickashaw Ferguson and QB Marques Hagans. The good news is 7 starters are back on both sides of the ball.

Groh has had to fill a lot of coaching changes, too. On offense, former Bowling Green head coach Gregg Brandon has been brought to Charlottesville to supercharge an offense that's finished 101st or lower in each of the last three years. Also added was former Cavalier assistant and Kansas State head coach Ron Prince, who will be the associate head coach and special teams coordinator. On defense, the school lost coordinator Bob Diaco to Cincinnati and assistant Bob Pruett to retirement in a matter of weeks. In their place, Bob Trott and Chad Wilt have been hired to assist Groh on defense.

Virginia has run a pro-style offense that looks for balance, but they will augment that with the spread attack for 2009. OC Brandon is considered an innovator of the spread offense. At Bowling Green, the Falcons featured one of the nation’s top all-around rushing and passing offenses. In four of his six seasons as head coach his teams averaged more than 400 yards of offense per game. Four starters return to anchor the offensive line, led by senior right tackle Will Barker. Barker enters his fourth season with 37 starts under his belt. Next to him is junior B.J. Cabbell at right guard. Cabbell proved to be an effective blocker last season in his first year as the starter. Fellow junior Jack Shields was another first-time starter a year ago who improved throughout the season. Sophomore Austin Pasztor moved into the starting line-up in the fifth week against Maryland and remained there the rest of the season.

QB is a battle between senior Jameel Sewell and junior Marc Verica. Sewell started all 13 games in 2007 and led the team to nine wins and a New Year’s Day bowl game. An elusive runner with a strong arm, he passed for 2,176 yards and ran for 279 more that season. Verica is more of a drop back passer who made his first start in last season's third game against Connecticut. He went on to start nine of the final 10 games and threw for 2,037 yards while completing 63.8 percent of his attempts. Redshirt freshman Riko Smalls is also in the mix. This team is on a 7-2 run under the total.

Senior RB Mikell Simpson ran for 570 yards in 2007 before dropping to 262 last year with injuries. Sophomore Max Milien has been a developmental player during the early part of his career but will be given an opportunity to show his skills, while speedy redshirt freshman Torrey Mack was one of the top running backs in his recruiting class coming in and should contend for time. Virginia lost its top-four producers from last season. Sophomore WR Jared Green leads the returnees at wide receiver after catching 12 passes for 144 yards a year ago. Kris Burd caught seven passes as a redshirt freshman last year in limited action.

On defense, they allowed 21.7 ppg and are thin at linebacker. That's a concern, as in Groh's 3-4 defense, playmaking linebackers are an absolute must. At least the defensive line has seven of the top eight returning. Sophomore Matt Conrath headlines the returnees at end. He earned second-team Freshman All-American honors last season after making 35 tackles, including four sacks. Senior Nate Collins and sophomore Nick Jenkins split time last season; Collins' 35 tackles are the top among the returning linemen, while Jenkins finished with 25. Junior John-Kevin Dolce proved himself in the pass rush package with five sacks among his nine total tackles. Redshirt freshman Klinton “Buddy” Ruff is a promising prospect that is likely to make his biggest contributions in the future.

Virginia has been a dominant home team under Groh. Virginia is 31-9 SU/25-14 ATS at home the last six seasons, but 12-22 SU/12-20 ATS on the road! The schedule has 7 of the 12 games at home and now Southern California for the opener like last year, instead opening against...William & Mary. Still, road games at Southern Miss, North Carolina, Maryland, Miami and Clemson will be tough. They probably aren't good enough to go bowling.


Miami

They love football in the south, and South Florida football fans are reeling from mediocre seasons from the Miami Hurricanes. Randy Shannon, 42, begins his third season, and he was the team's defensive coordinator for the previous six seasons under Larry Coker. Miami struggled in this first year, going 5-7 SU, 4-8 ATS. They had a shot at a bowl, but lost their final 4 games, giving up 48 points to Virginia, 44 to Virginia Tech and 28 points (369 passing yards) to Boston College. Not a good start for the new coach. Last year a very young team went 7-6, but struggled on offense and lost its final 3 games.

2009 sees a change in coaching philosophy. New offensive coordinator Mark Whipple is rolling out his version of a pro-style offense that comes with a thick playbook. John Lovett is the new defensive coordinator. Lovett, 58, spent the last two seasons as the special teams coordinator and a defensive assistant at North Carolina, where the kickoff coverage unit ranked among the nation’s top 15 and the Tar Heels blocked six kicks in 2008. Prior to going to North Carolina, Lovett was the defensive coordinator at Bowling Green from 2005-06.

Improving the offense is the main priority. Despite 27.9 points per game, the Hurricanes averaged just 130 yards rushing and 197 yards passing -- and even less in the ACC. QB Robert Marve has transferred, so sophomore QB Jacory Harris gets the nod. As a freshman he split time and finished with 12 TDs, 7 picks, and 1,195 yards. He has talent, but is limited in experience while the whole offense learns a new system. All the top receivers return as they were mostly freshman, led by WRs Aldarius Johnson (332 yards), Thearon Collier (324), Travis Benjamin and Laron Byrd, though they weren't very prodictive as freshmen.

The ground game was in the middle of the ACC pack and returns junior RB Graig Cooper, who had 841 yards, a solid 4.9 yards per carry. Senior RB Javarris James was in and out of the lineup, but also has speed and talent. The offense had been the biggest problem under offensive coordinator Patrick Nix, who is gone, averaging 18 ppg in ACC play, 20 per game overall in 2007. And that was with Marshall, Florida international and Duke on the schedule. Miami is 20-13 under the total the last three years. Miami has been awful on the road, at 1-4 SU, 2-3 ATS where they allowed 37 points per game in 2007 and 3-3 in 2008.

6 starters return on defense, plus there is an influx of freshmen in DL Curtis Porter, DB Brandon McGee and DL Olivier Vernon. The defense was mauled the final three games, allowing 41, 38 and 24 points. Miami expected to be better than 5-3 in its inaugural season in the ACC in 2004. In 2005 they were 6-2 in the ACC, in 2006 they bottomed out at 3-5 and 2007 they were 2-6 SU/ATS, and just 4-4 last season. Miami has gone 18-29 ATS the last four seasons! The 2009 Hurricanes face a tough early schedule, playing Florida State, Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech to open the season. Starting 0-3 is not the way to try and make a bowl. Another losing season is more likely, especially with kids and new playbook.


Duke

The Blue Devils carried a 20-game losing streak into the 2007 season, managed to end that dubious streak, then won 4 games last season, so there is hope. David Cutcliffe begins his second season and he was the head coach at Ole Miss when Eli Manning was there, and spent the previous two seasons as Tennessee's offensive coordinator. He ran wide open offensive attacks at both schools. He managed to squeeze the Blue Devils into an offense that averaged 20 points and 197.7 yards passing. That is progress, as the previous year the anemic Duke offense ranked 117th in the nation in total offense, 114th in scoring.

Duke has two quarterbacks they like, rising senior Thaddeus Lewis and redshirt freshman Sean Renfree. Lewis was very strong in 2008, with 15 TDs, 6 INTs, 2,171 yards, and 62% completions. Lewis has been starting since his freshman season and was actually very good in 2007, with 21 TDs, 10 INTs and 2,430 yards. Renfree is the future with four years of eligibility beginning with the 2009 campaign. "It is unique, to say the least," Duke head coach David Cutcliffe said of the two talented QBs. They lost ace WR Eron Riley, so someone will have to step up in sophomore Johnny Williams (327 yards), Donovan Varner, junior Austin Kelly, and 6-4 junior Sheldon Bell all showed glimpses as underclassmen. Junior TE Brett Huffman had 14 receptions as a sophomore.

The offensive line has been a problem for a while, though they improved in pass protection under Cutcliffe. Last season Duke averaged 106 yards rushing and returns sophomore RB Jay Hollingsworth (399 yards, 3.7 ypc) and junior RB Tony Jackson (259 yards, 3.4 ypc). But their top four rushers all averaged 3.7 yards per carry or less. Cutcliffe has a great offensive mind and will get the most out of this group. Former Duke starting quarterback Zack Asack was kicked off the team for violations, after moving from QB to safety.

DT Vince Oghobaase returning for his senior year, which helps the line. Despite the loss of All-America Michael Tauiliili, the leadership of Duke's linebacking unit rests in the good hands of rising senior Vincent Rey. A two-year starter, 2008 team captain and the only active player in the ACC with at least 100 tackles in each of the past two seasons, Rey will continue to guide the Blue Devil defense. Rey posted 109 total tackles last fall and his 9.1 tackles per game average ranked fifth-best in the conference.

Duke has gone 1-11 SU, 5-7 ATS in 2007, 0-12 SU/5-6 ATS in 2006; and 1-10 SU, 2-8 ATS in 2005, so the steps are in the right direction, though they are small ones. Games against Richmond, Army and NC Central in September could get them off to a 3-1 start -- which they did last season.