The Value of Experienced Leadership

Friday, February 20, 2009
By Jim Feist

In college hoops, is is important to have senior leaderhip, or does it matter? The last two years, college basketball's champions, Kansas and Florida, had a combined 8 starters who were juniors or seniors. The two years prior to that, Florida and North Carolina, had starting fives with no seniors.

Five years ago, one of the most underrated coaches in college basketball, Syracuse's Jim Boeheim, combined with a gifted group of freshmen and sophomores to win the NCAA title. The Orangemen upset Kansas in a thrilling finale, 81-78, with a starting five of two freshmen (F Carmelo Anthony, G Billy Edelin), two sophomores (C Craig Forth, F Hakim Warrick) and only one senior (G Keith Duany). The kids played like veterans for the Orangemen and note that Syracuse was 9-3 SU, 8-3-1 ATS on the road. No nerves away from home for the kids, straight up and against the number!

In the final three tournament games they were a +3, +3 and +5 dog to Oklahoma, Texas and Kansas and won them all straight up (+200 in the title game on the money-line). We are in an era with fewer seniors in college hoops, but let's not downplay the value of veteran leadership.

One characteristic that successful handicappers possess is perspective. In the world of 11-to-10, it's essential to maintain an even keel: one can't get too high over a big point spread victory, or too low when lady luck drops a curveball on a game you have isolated from every angle as a strong play. Perspective is also important as the college basketball season gets underway, because what Syracuse did in 2003, win with so many youngsters, is not that common.

The 2006 Florida team had four junior starters who had been together for a while, then came back the next year and repeated. North Carolina in 2005 had three rock solid juniors in Ray Felton, Sean May and Rashard McCants. In 2004, UConn had senior guard Taliek Brown and star junior center Emeka Okafur. If you're looking for a team that might win it all, history suggests talent, depth, good coaching AND experienced leadership are four key ingredients for success in college hoops.

So, yes, generally speaking, junior and senior leadership are important assets to have during conference tournament play and the upcoming Big Dance.

NCAA Champions:
2008 Kansas (2 junior starters, 2 seniors)
2007 Florida (4 junior starters, 1 senior)
2006 Florida (4 junior starters)
2005 North Carolina (3 junior starters, Felton, McCants, May)
2004 UConn (1 key senior, Taliek Brown, junior Emeka Okafur)
2003 Syracuse (Starters: 2 frosh, 2 soph, 1 senior)
2002 Maryland (2 key seniors, Lonnie Baxter, Juan Dixon)
2001 Duke (1 key senior, Shane Battier)
2000 Michigan State (Starters: 3 seniors, 2 juniors)
1999 Connecticut (Starters: 2 seniors, 2 juniors)
1998 Kentucky (Starters: 2 seniors, 3 juniors)
1997 Arizona (Starters: 3 juniors)
1996 Kentucky (Starters: 2 seniors, 2 juniors)
1995 UCLA (Starters: 3 seniors)