Postseason Basketball and Earlier Meetings

Friday, April 17, 2009
By Jim Feist

As the NBA playoffs are about to begin, handicappers should take careful note of how teams did against each other during the regular season. Examine head to head matchups individually and as a group. Does one team dominate another? If so, are the reasons for this, or was it merely a fluke during the long grind of an 82-game schedule?

Sometimes a team is missing key players for one or two of the meetings, which can explain why one team did poorly. Or, maybe the losing team played in difficult back-to-back spots. Other times, you may find that a team matches up well against an opponent. For example, if a weaker rebounding team like Denver or Dallas is playing San Antonio or Portland, examine each regular season battle to see what was more important: Defense? Offense? Or rebounding?

For example, San Antonio is hosting Dallas this weekend in Round 1. Dallas killed the Spurs the first time they met, in San Antonio, 98-81, with an edge in rebounding 45-34! San Antonio was 0-3 for the first time in 30 years and played without Manu Ginobili. The teams didn't meet again until February, where the Spurs rolled 93-76 with an edge in rebounding, 47-46. They won that game without Duncan, who sat out with a sore right knee.

Dallas won the third meeting, 107-102, at home, though the Spurs won the battle of the boards, 38-35 (13-6 on the offensive glass). What stood out is that the games really weren't that close and only the final meeting, a Dallas win, saw both teams relatively healthy. It's tough to draw too much from those stats, other than the fact that the home team went 2-1 SU/ATS.

Another example is when one team dominates another during the regular season, then the two meet in the playoffs. The public perception is that the team that dominated during the season will easily rout the opponent, but this is not always the case. You may have heard professional bettors speak of the "GAD" theory, or "Go Against the Dominant team" during the postseason. It's not as simple as betting against the favored team that dominated during the regular season, but it's something to keep in mind as the playoffs commence.

For example, a few years ago the Sacramento Kings swept the Utah Jazz during the regular season, going 4-0 straight up and against the spread. The Kings didn't just win – they rolled! Sacramento won those four regular season meetings by some frightful scores: 113-80, 114-90, 107-81 and 117-109. Utah was no pushover, though, with Stockton and Malone, plus hard driving coach Jerry Sloan. In their first round playoff battle, Utah went 3-0 against the spread in the first three games, even winning Game 2 at Sacramento, 93-86 as an 11-point dog.

The Kings were 12, 11 and 4-point favorites in those first three games, yet failed to cover winning 89-86 in Game 1, losing Game 2, and winning 90-87 in Game 3. During the four regular season meetings, the Kings were 10 and 8 point favorites at Sacramento – but now in the playoffs, they were bumped up to 12 and 11 point chalk – clearly public perception had something to do with that based on the regular season dominance. Utah didn't give in, even using their 0-4 regular season as a motivation factor.

Remember two years ago when Golden State shocked top-seeded Dallas in the first round? Few recall that the Warriors went 2-1 SU/ATS against the mighty Mavs during the regular season, even winning the only game at Dallas. The smart handicapper saw an uptempo team that could run right with Dallas, which continued during their 6-game playoff upset. Examine regular season meetings carefully. Don't be fooled by regular season dominance, and take note when a big dog like Golden State played the favorite evenly all season.