Thursday, June 05, 2008
By Dave Cokin
Tick tock, tick tock, tick tock, BOOM! The time bomb that has been the 2008 Seattle Mariners finally went off yesterday. The blame game had to start getting played out at some point as the M's continue their descent into oblivion in a season that had started with high hopes and expectations. This whole scene played out like a hackneyed situation comedy. Boss (Chuck Armstrong) gets steamed, calls out his assistant (Bill Bavasi), who calls out his assistant (John McLaren), who calls out his assistants (the coaching staff), and finally it gets to the bottom of the food chain, which in this case would be the players. Oh, and there was the obligatory profanity-laden tirade (McLaren) for the media's benefit. Can't forget that.
The Mariners won 88 games last season and were serious playoff contenders for much of the year. The only way they’re sniffing .500 this season is if opponents start forfeiting games. Fact is, this team stinks. They have two top level starters in Felix Hernandez and Erik Bedard. The latter has been erratic, but he's a terrific pitcher and should eventually put together a really nice run. The rest of the rotation (Washburn, Batista and Silva) is abysmal. I actually like the bullpen combo of Putz and Morrow quite a bit, especially the flame-throwing Morrow.
The offense wasn't very good to begin with, and it's gotten even worse. Ichiro might be showing the first signs of decline, though he’s still a superb talent. The Mariners have almost no power. Richie Sexson isn't rebounding at all from a dismal 2007 campaign, and he's actually lost playing time recently to Miguel Cairo, which in itself is almost unbelievable. Raul Ibanez just emerged from the worst slump of his career, but he's no longer a major threat. 3B Adrian Beltre has never come close to duplicating his 2004 breakout campaign. The keystone combo of Jose Lopez and Yuniesky Betancourt is decent, but hardly spectacular. Kenji Johjima isn't hitting and his handling of pitchers has always been rated as substandard.
There are clear chemistry issues on this team. Neither Bedard nor Washburn want Johjima behind the dish when they pitch. Ichiro, great player that he is, has never emerged as a leader. Team management has misfired consistently with their off-season signings and trades. The farm system is one of baseball's weakest.
The Mariners are pot that finally boiled over Wednesday as they completed a home sweep at the hands of the Angels. Someone's going to get the boot here shortly, and the smart money says it will be McLaren. Personally, I don’t think Bavasi is far behind. Good luck to the new guys who move in down the line. They're going to need it.
Wednesday notes: Another strong game for Milwaukee lefty Manny Parra, who's been good or better in five of his last six starts. Parra is still going to have the occasional really bad game where he loses command and starts walking the ballpark. But he's got loads of upside, and with his ability to rack up the K's, he's worth taking a look at as a back end fantasy starter. Brett Myers had a monster effort for the Phillies Wednesday night. Myers took a no-hitter into the seventh inning against the Reds. Unfortunately for Myers, he got matched up with the amazing Edinson Volquez, who continues to be nothing short of incredible for Cincinnati.
I'm not going to get overly excited about Myers off this effort, however. He had really good stuff to be sure, but those six walks issued bother me. Myers is available in lots of deep leagues, but I can't recommend him...Roy Oswalt absorbed another loss Wednesday and continues to give up a huge opposing batting average. Several "experts" have put the "buy low" tag on Oswalt, but I think he's a bad risk. He started showing a few signs of decline last season and it looks to me like Oswalt is simply no longer an ace pitcher. Perhaps there's something physical still lingering, as Oswalt has had constant groin strain problems. Regardless, I would thoroughly disagree with those hoping to latch onto him at a bargain price...
The White Sox have been getting next to nothing from veteran power hitters Jim Thome and Paul Konerko. But the duo came up huge in Wednesday's 15 inning win over the Royals. Thome hit one of the longest shots I've ever seen, and Konerko eventually won the game with a late night two run blast through the raindrops. I think there's some value in going after either of these two guys if you can get them reasonably cheap. Both figure to heat up with the weather and that ballpark they call home is long ball heaven come summertime...Coco Crisp might end up as the big roto beneficiary in Boston while Big Papi Ortiz sits out. Looks like Crisp will now be playing more and with the Red Sox running way more than in past years, Crisp could be a very nice source of steals and runs.
Callup roll call: Two players to size up in this report. First, there's Homer Bailey, the much hyped Reds pitching prospect. Bailey went 4-2 with the Reds in '07, but the ERA and WHIP were ugly as he struggled mightily with his command. His stock seems to have dropped a bit in some circles and he's been somewhat erratic at Louisville this season. I still like him quite a bit in terms of his ceiling. He's got a mid-90s heater and a nasty hammer curve and he's got the ability to miss a lot of bats. But he hasn't yet mastered the art of changing speeds. From a fantasy standpoint, he's keeper material for his upside but I would not go after him in an annual league.
Next, there's Joe Mather. He moved into Chris Duncan's spot with the Cardinals and has made a fine first impression. Mather is probably not going to be a big BA type, but he's got power. And most importantly, he's been hitting in the #2 hole for the Redbirds, right behind a guy named Pujols. That means loads of fastballs for Mather, and with his apparent strike zone discipline, a chance to put up some really solid numbers. The downside is he won't play every day, as Tony LaRussa does lots of mixing and matching. But if your deep league allows daily transactions and lineup changes, Mather is definitely worth grabbing as a quality fifth or sixth outfielder.
One of the ugliest stats you'll ever see got even worse on Tuesday night as the Tigers lost a 5-4 extra inning decision to the A's. Detroit is now a phenomenally awful 1-31 in games where they failed to score five or more runs. There have been some terrific surprise stories through the first two months of the 2008 campaign, but perhaps the biggest shocker has been the wrong way collapse of the Tigers.
I was not as high as most analysts were on the Tigers. I was pretty sure their bullpen would be a sieve and had doubts about the depth of their starting rotation beyond Justin Verlander. But I doubt anyone could have envisioned what's happened with this team. Verlander has been lousy. Jeremy Bonderman has shown signs of getting back to where he was early in 2007, but it's not there yet. Kenny Rogers has been okay in his last couple of starts, but he's not exactly fooling too many hitters these days. Nate Robertson has been brutal, and Dontrelle Willis can't get the ball over the plate. The "ace" of the staff has been unheralded rookie Armando Galarraga.
The Tigers are now a putrid 24-34 following Tuesday's loss. They're hopeful of getting Fernando Rodney and Joel Zumaya back soon to bolster the bullpen, but it's starting to look as though it won't matter. Whatever respected skipper Jim Leyland is selling, the players don't seem to be buying. The Tigers have a load of high priced veterans with the big club, and their farm system has just one really high level prospect, pitcher Rick Porcello, who's in his first professional season.
The 2008 finish line is still beyond the horizon, and all it might take for the Tigers to get back in the hunt in the less than loaded AL Central is one prolonged hot streak. But their pitching is so suspect I don't know if they're capable of blowing out a monster streak. Should the Tigers maintain their losing ways into July, I think we could be seeing some wholesale overhauling in Motown. GM Dave Dombrowski or Leyland could get sacked, and there could even be a mini-fire sale of some of the veteran talent, as the organization desperately needs to re-stock the farm system. Definitely a scene that should be worth watching!
Tuesday Notes: Really nice effort by Astros lefty Wandy Rodriguez, with six strong frames as Houston blanked the Pirates. I know, it's just the Pirates, but even a win of this sort at Pittsburgh is big for Rodriguez. Wandy has some of most bizarre splits you'll ever see from a pitcher. He's been stellar at home the last two years, but absolutely horrendous on the road. One can't help but think that with splits so dramatic, the problem is more mental than physical. That makes this win a potential buy signal. I'd recommend speculating on Rodriguez in leagues where he's available...
Edwin Encarnacion homered for the second straight game in the Reds loss at Philly. He's been a big disappointment to his owners this season following his breakout second half in '07. But this may be the start of a surge for Encarnacion, so check on his availability in your league. He's got substantial upside, and could be of even greater value right now to owners hurting at the corners because of injuries...
Prince Fielder is now officially on fire for Milwaukee, with another long ball Tuesday night. Forget about picking him up on the cheap from a previously panicked owner. Meanwhile, Bill Hall's agent says his client wants to be traded now that he's been reduced to a platoon player. Good luck in making that wish come true. The Brewers aren't going to give him away and his value is at his lowest right now because he's not hitting a lick. Unlike the Brewers, roto owners of Hall can cast him off without a great deal of worry. Hall was a fluke in 2006, when he launched 35 homers.
The reality is that Hall is a .260 type at best who strikes out way too often for a guy who isn't really a 35 HR producer. Plus, he doesn't run much anymore, reducing his fantasy value even more...
Brian Fuentes notched his seventh save as the Rockies finally won a game. Fuentes might not have many more save chances as he's strongly rumored to be on the block, with the Yankees the most ardent suitors. I would definitely be looking to deal Fuentes immediately. If he doesn't get moved, you lose at best a mid-tier closer. If he does get dealt, he almost certainly will emerge as a lefty setup type and he'll have almost no value. The smart gamble is to peddle Fuentes right now, and I'd also explore the possibility of rostering Taylor Buchholz, who figures to inherit the closer role for the Rockies if Fuentes gets moved. As it is, Buchholz has been terrific out of the pen for Colorado, and his value could skyrocket shortly… Looking to catch lightning in a bottle at a premium position?
Check out Rod Barajas, who's on fire catching for the Blue Jays. Barajas was hitting .175 on May 1. Since that time, he's gone 23/59 with four HR and 16 RBI. With Geoff Zaun injured, Barajas is playing almost every day. There's nothing to suggest Barajas can keep this up, but he's sure earning his keep wherever he's rostered right now...
Nice job by Baltimore's Radhames Liz Tuesday night. He got the win for the O's at Minnesota, and could well find a spot in their rotation ahead of the completely shot Steve Trachsel. Liz is probably not ready to deliver consistently strong efforts at this point, but he's got some upside. I wouldn't be racing to the free agent pool to grab him just yet, but he's worth monitoring for the occasional spot start.
By Dave Cokin
Tick tock, tick tock, tick tock, BOOM! The time bomb that has been the 2008 Seattle Mariners finally went off yesterday. The blame game had to start getting played out at some point as the M's continue their descent into oblivion in a season that had started with high hopes and expectations. This whole scene played out like a hackneyed situation comedy. Boss (Chuck Armstrong) gets steamed, calls out his assistant (Bill Bavasi), who calls out his assistant (John McLaren), who calls out his assistants (the coaching staff), and finally it gets to the bottom of the food chain, which in this case would be the players. Oh, and there was the obligatory profanity-laden tirade (McLaren) for the media's benefit. Can't forget that.
The Mariners won 88 games last season and were serious playoff contenders for much of the year. The only way they’re sniffing .500 this season is if opponents start forfeiting games. Fact is, this team stinks. They have two top level starters in Felix Hernandez and Erik Bedard. The latter has been erratic, but he's a terrific pitcher and should eventually put together a really nice run. The rest of the rotation (Washburn, Batista and Silva) is abysmal. I actually like the bullpen combo of Putz and Morrow quite a bit, especially the flame-throwing Morrow.
The offense wasn't very good to begin with, and it's gotten even worse. Ichiro might be showing the first signs of decline, though he’s still a superb talent. The Mariners have almost no power. Richie Sexson isn't rebounding at all from a dismal 2007 campaign, and he's actually lost playing time recently to Miguel Cairo, which in itself is almost unbelievable. Raul Ibanez just emerged from the worst slump of his career, but he's no longer a major threat. 3B Adrian Beltre has never come close to duplicating his 2004 breakout campaign. The keystone combo of Jose Lopez and Yuniesky Betancourt is decent, but hardly spectacular. Kenji Johjima isn't hitting and his handling of pitchers has always been rated as substandard.
There are clear chemistry issues on this team. Neither Bedard nor Washburn want Johjima behind the dish when they pitch. Ichiro, great player that he is, has never emerged as a leader. Team management has misfired consistently with their off-season signings and trades. The farm system is one of baseball's weakest.
The Mariners are pot that finally boiled over Wednesday as they completed a home sweep at the hands of the Angels. Someone's going to get the boot here shortly, and the smart money says it will be McLaren. Personally, I don’t think Bavasi is far behind. Good luck to the new guys who move in down the line. They're going to need it.
Wednesday notes: Another strong game for Milwaukee lefty Manny Parra, who's been good or better in five of his last six starts. Parra is still going to have the occasional really bad game where he loses command and starts walking the ballpark. But he's got loads of upside, and with his ability to rack up the K's, he's worth taking a look at as a back end fantasy starter. Brett Myers had a monster effort for the Phillies Wednesday night. Myers took a no-hitter into the seventh inning against the Reds. Unfortunately for Myers, he got matched up with the amazing Edinson Volquez, who continues to be nothing short of incredible for Cincinnati.
I'm not going to get overly excited about Myers off this effort, however. He had really good stuff to be sure, but those six walks issued bother me. Myers is available in lots of deep leagues, but I can't recommend him...Roy Oswalt absorbed another loss Wednesday and continues to give up a huge opposing batting average. Several "experts" have put the "buy low" tag on Oswalt, but I think he's a bad risk. He started showing a few signs of decline last season and it looks to me like Oswalt is simply no longer an ace pitcher. Perhaps there's something physical still lingering, as Oswalt has had constant groin strain problems. Regardless, I would thoroughly disagree with those hoping to latch onto him at a bargain price...
The White Sox have been getting next to nothing from veteran power hitters Jim Thome and Paul Konerko. But the duo came up huge in Wednesday's 15 inning win over the Royals. Thome hit one of the longest shots I've ever seen, and Konerko eventually won the game with a late night two run blast through the raindrops. I think there's some value in going after either of these two guys if you can get them reasonably cheap. Both figure to heat up with the weather and that ballpark they call home is long ball heaven come summertime...Coco Crisp might end up as the big roto beneficiary in Boston while Big Papi Ortiz sits out. Looks like Crisp will now be playing more and with the Red Sox running way more than in past years, Crisp could be a very nice source of steals and runs.
Callup roll call: Two players to size up in this report. First, there's Homer Bailey, the much hyped Reds pitching prospect. Bailey went 4-2 with the Reds in '07, but the ERA and WHIP were ugly as he struggled mightily with his command. His stock seems to have dropped a bit in some circles and he's been somewhat erratic at Louisville this season. I still like him quite a bit in terms of his ceiling. He's got a mid-90s heater and a nasty hammer curve and he's got the ability to miss a lot of bats. But he hasn't yet mastered the art of changing speeds. From a fantasy standpoint, he's keeper material for his upside but I would not go after him in an annual league.
Next, there's Joe Mather. He moved into Chris Duncan's spot with the Cardinals and has made a fine first impression. Mather is probably not going to be a big BA type, but he's got power. And most importantly, he's been hitting in the #2 hole for the Redbirds, right behind a guy named Pujols. That means loads of fastballs for Mather, and with his apparent strike zone discipline, a chance to put up some really solid numbers. The downside is he won't play every day, as Tony LaRussa does lots of mixing and matching. But if your deep league allows daily transactions and lineup changes, Mather is definitely worth grabbing as a quality fifth or sixth outfielder.
One of the ugliest stats you'll ever see got even worse on Tuesday night as the Tigers lost a 5-4 extra inning decision to the A's. Detroit is now a phenomenally awful 1-31 in games where they failed to score five or more runs. There have been some terrific surprise stories through the first two months of the 2008 campaign, but perhaps the biggest shocker has been the wrong way collapse of the Tigers.
I was not as high as most analysts were on the Tigers. I was pretty sure their bullpen would be a sieve and had doubts about the depth of their starting rotation beyond Justin Verlander. But I doubt anyone could have envisioned what's happened with this team. Verlander has been lousy. Jeremy Bonderman has shown signs of getting back to where he was early in 2007, but it's not there yet. Kenny Rogers has been okay in his last couple of starts, but he's not exactly fooling too many hitters these days. Nate Robertson has been brutal, and Dontrelle Willis can't get the ball over the plate. The "ace" of the staff has been unheralded rookie Armando Galarraga.
The Tigers are now a putrid 24-34 following Tuesday's loss. They're hopeful of getting Fernando Rodney and Joel Zumaya back soon to bolster the bullpen, but it's starting to look as though it won't matter. Whatever respected skipper Jim Leyland is selling, the players don't seem to be buying. The Tigers have a load of high priced veterans with the big club, and their farm system has just one really high level prospect, pitcher Rick Porcello, who's in his first professional season.
The 2008 finish line is still beyond the horizon, and all it might take for the Tigers to get back in the hunt in the less than loaded AL Central is one prolonged hot streak. But their pitching is so suspect I don't know if they're capable of blowing out a monster streak. Should the Tigers maintain their losing ways into July, I think we could be seeing some wholesale overhauling in Motown. GM Dave Dombrowski or Leyland could get sacked, and there could even be a mini-fire sale of some of the veteran talent, as the organization desperately needs to re-stock the farm system. Definitely a scene that should be worth watching!
Tuesday Notes: Really nice effort by Astros lefty Wandy Rodriguez, with six strong frames as Houston blanked the Pirates. I know, it's just the Pirates, but even a win of this sort at Pittsburgh is big for Rodriguez. Wandy has some of most bizarre splits you'll ever see from a pitcher. He's been stellar at home the last two years, but absolutely horrendous on the road. One can't help but think that with splits so dramatic, the problem is more mental than physical. That makes this win a potential buy signal. I'd recommend speculating on Rodriguez in leagues where he's available...
Edwin Encarnacion homered for the second straight game in the Reds loss at Philly. He's been a big disappointment to his owners this season following his breakout second half in '07. But this may be the start of a surge for Encarnacion, so check on his availability in your league. He's got substantial upside, and could be of even greater value right now to owners hurting at the corners because of injuries...
Prince Fielder is now officially on fire for Milwaukee, with another long ball Tuesday night. Forget about picking him up on the cheap from a previously panicked owner. Meanwhile, Bill Hall's agent says his client wants to be traded now that he's been reduced to a platoon player. Good luck in making that wish come true. The Brewers aren't going to give him away and his value is at his lowest right now because he's not hitting a lick. Unlike the Brewers, roto owners of Hall can cast him off without a great deal of worry. Hall was a fluke in 2006, when he launched 35 homers.
The reality is that Hall is a .260 type at best who strikes out way too often for a guy who isn't really a 35 HR producer. Plus, he doesn't run much anymore, reducing his fantasy value even more...
Brian Fuentes notched his seventh save as the Rockies finally won a game. Fuentes might not have many more save chances as he's strongly rumored to be on the block, with the Yankees the most ardent suitors. I would definitely be looking to deal Fuentes immediately. If he doesn't get moved, you lose at best a mid-tier closer. If he does get dealt, he almost certainly will emerge as a lefty setup type and he'll have almost no value. The smart gamble is to peddle Fuentes right now, and I'd also explore the possibility of rostering Taylor Buchholz, who figures to inherit the closer role for the Rockies if Fuentes gets moved. As it is, Buchholz has been terrific out of the pen for Colorado, and his value could skyrocket shortly… Looking to catch lightning in a bottle at a premium position?
Check out Rod Barajas, who's on fire catching for the Blue Jays. Barajas was hitting .175 on May 1. Since that time, he's gone 23/59 with four HR and 16 RBI. With Geoff Zaun injured, Barajas is playing almost every day. There's nothing to suggest Barajas can keep this up, but he's sure earning his keep wherever he's rostered right now...
Nice job by Baltimore's Radhames Liz Tuesday night. He got the win for the O's at Minnesota, and could well find a spot in their rotation ahead of the completely shot Steve Trachsel. Liz is probably not ready to deliver consistently strong efforts at this point, but he's got some upside. I wouldn't be racing to the free agent pool to grab him just yet, but he's worth monitoring for the occasional spot start.
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